Ticktack, ticktack, here comes the next important Gold-Low

Well, truly, long enough the gold bears have had their fun. Now, the next important gold low is just around the corner.

Behind any little Advent calendar door may dodge the next important gold low. Please get ready to turn positions and opinions from short to long and to start building up long-positions at the price targets I’m going to present. If gold is able to reach and work off the 1000$ as early as in December, the trend will switch to long sustainably till mid-2016 – at least!!

In case the 1000$ Gann Magnet can be worked off in December 2015, there’ll even be a mini chance for the precious-metal bear market having finally come to its end thereby.

If however gold turns before reaching the “round” 1000$ magnet – it’s likely to do so – the Gold Bugs will technically be allowed to expect just another well tradable countertrend during at least 2 months, more probably 3-4 months to at most 5 months.

According to the price, this coming countertrend might laxly attain the 1250$ region. Let’s wait and see how much power will be developed by the first up impulse starting from the sustainably important low of the month of December 2015. Not before gold is in that phase, we’ll be able to draw our conclusions about indeed relevant price regions.

The target of the bear market was and keeps the 1*2 Support Angle being worked off that started from the 2008 crash low. At the beginning of February 2015 we realized that the January 2015 high – final year high of 2015 – was matter of a Kiss of Death backtest of the 1*1 Gann Angle, finally broken previously.

Correspondingly, the January 2015 high should be about a very important high in the bear market. Compellingly, a classical Kiss-of-Death backtest of such an important resistance magnet in the monthly and yearly time frames could only mean that gold has to and wants to work off the 1*2 Support Angle in the course of the bear market!

A negative backtest of the 1*1 Angle will confirm the 1*2 Angle as natural target in an up setup. This correlation was developed by W.D. Gann. Often enough, the markets perform the way the nature presets.

Hence then, in February 2015 we could settle that the 1*2 Support Angle would have to be target for the year 2015. As explained above already, at this moment we were not really able to schedule the exact timing for gold to arrive at the 1*2 Support Angle in 2015, since then the market was only just in the early phase of a new lasting bear-market leg.

That’s why we could only determine a price region for downtarget: 1000$-1040$, depicted by the green/yellow ovals.

I was so much desirous of the 1000$ to be reached till mid-2015 already. Because…, the 1000$ according to W.D. Gann is a downtarget as natural as the 1*2 Support Angle. Well, is making a fuss vehemently, hesitating to work off the 1000$, and I think, in 2015 the 1000$ being worked off – just a small chance!

That’s why this magnet will simply be on the agenda in 2016 to be worked off. Without working off the “round” 1000$, this bear market is not supposed to be able coming to an end.

In the future, gold will have to see the 1000$, if it doesn’t in this bear market, it will happen in the next! A fact resulting from a rule!!

Well now, visible in the monthly chart above is a gap existing between the closes of the month 10/2009 and the open off 11/2009 – at 1040.40$. All that time, I didn’t recognize or realized it. A gap on monthly base is the killer, of course. Outrageous that nobody has seen that. To educate myself, I also have to check out regularly what the fellow analysts are doing. This hole however has not been identified as a target by anybody so far.

There’s an important rule for precious-metal trading. Gold and silver futures markets don’t like any gap. Gaps are always being closed (ok a 99% now). This is a deviantly compulsive comportment. So, the perception that for gold such a conspicuous price gap appears in the monthly future chart explains a lot about the development of the last couple of weeks…

Together with the 1040.40 gap that really represents an important future horizontal magnet, the 1040.40 horizontal intersects now in December with the 1*2 Support Angle.

Thus, in December the 1040.40 is the first price where the important December low can be brought in. Perhaps, it is not going lower than the 1040.40. So, around this mark the shorts begin to even up and to buy! Buy some first positions – independently from the following which approaches the exact timing and the even more exact pricing for the low.

The 1040.40 is for a decade, yearly and monthly magnet and therefore a central and important magnet for gold that will prevail in longer terms and should trigger a sustainable turn, as it did on the first test of the 1*1 Angle.

Let us have a look back at the very first test of the 1*1 Angle after the all-time high of 2011. In order to underline it, I have inserted a green oval. There we spot that gold scarcely and temporarily fell below this important support.

Due to the memory of markets and their will to behave similar to how they did in the past as to magnets of similar type (diagonals, horizontals, arcs and angles!) we actually should expect that gold temporarily wants/has to fall below the 1*2 Angle. Now, these days… Besides gold wants/has to see the 1027 respectively 1023 for the low:

The crash low of 2008 is located at 681$. 681 divided by 2 is 340.50. The 340.50 added with the 681 = 681 + 340.50 = 1021.50.

The 1021.50 therefore is to put on a level with the 1023. The 1023 magnet derives directly from the 2008 crash low AND ADDITIONALLY AND AT ONCE directly from the 1923.70$ all-time high!!

==> All information about the importance of the 1023, 1073 and the eventual 973 as possible destination areas for this downer can be found in the basic article: “The importance of 1072.30 for gold”.

Consequently the 1021.50 = 1023 magnet is as important as the 1040.40 or as the 1000$ for December. I cannot say which of these magnets is currently the most important. Actually the most important should be the 1021.50 = 1023 magnet, because it derives both from the last truly important high (2011 ATH) and from the very last, important low (2008 crash low). This is not something that happens randomly.

So when the 1*2 Support Angle should be penetrated in the monthly time frame – which is expectable, see above the monthly 9 Candle up setup – the 1021.50 = 1023 should be reached. Buy in December also at this point!!

Now to the weekly picture. It helps us to isolate and to determine the moment for the low and gives us other magnets for the low. The setup start is the high of 2015. From there it measures 8 weeks down.

Since the low at the # 1, at 1072.30$, triggered by monthly 1073 support and a weekly GUNNER24 Diagonal and the spacious support of the 1st double arc we recognize a structure that is clearly following the Fibonacci numbers. Therefore, the important low of 2015 is at # 1. The first important countertrend high after that is close to # 5, end of the last countertrend is at the # 13. Henceforth, gold falls into the # 21. In addition, what a surprising contingency: the week of the expected rate hike announcement – 15th-16th FOMC meeting – is the # 22! Therefore, exactly 21 weeks after the reached last important low at the # 1.

==> From the perspective of timing, the next important low of this bear is most likely to happen between the 14th and 18th of December.

Recently activated downtarget in the weekly time frame is the contact with the upper line of the 2nd double arc. This touch runs for the week # 22 at 1027. This price aim again is completely complied with the 1021.50 = 1023. Sic.

Not before gold closes below the 1020 on a daily closing base in December the round 1000$-mark will be worked off quickly still in 2015/ first trading day/s of 2016. However, I do not believe in it. This would be a too deep penetration of the monthly 1*2 Support Angle!

In addition, I have marked two short entries in the weekly down setup. You cannot do anything wrong actually when gold, before it reaches the 1040.40, notes at 1067. 1067 is now the important weekly resistance horizontal. If gold really could make it to bounce high up to the Resistance Angle this upcoming week, with the 1089 there will be the best, because most safe access into the shorts according to the December lows.

At the end some more fine tuning into the low according factor time.

Now and then I present some matters in my subscription products, in case I spot abnormalities in the past that possibly have consequences for the close or far future.

On Friday, I generated this overview for my GUNNER24 Gold Traders. It compares the most important aspects and abnormalities of the lows of the last 3 December-months in the current gold bear market:

Click the button below and order the GUNNER24 Gold Trader - $39.90 US a month. For 201 members and up - $49.90 US a month.