The gold price forecast last week was a miss. The gold did not break the first double arc upwards as predicted but it started as early as Monday to go down breaking the primary Gann Angle on closing price basis the same day. Thus, our SL was triggered off, and we were stopped into the shorts.

 

That down swing was rather surprising me since the stock markets and the Euro obviously boasted an up trend during the week. Further gold uncoupled from silver.

With the week closing we covered the shorts because the down swing might have come to its end at the eighth day exactly. The top of the down swing is on a time line as well as the Friday low.

Rule 23.1: With the time lines price and time are most frequently in correlation and often exactly on the time lines, a short term low or high is formed.

When something surprising happens that we had not reckoned with we always have to scrutinize what is the matter in order to find a solution of the problem. In such case a parallel setup always helps. Mostly you gain some insight into it by the setup in the upper time frame.

 

This 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup is valid as well as the 8 Candle up setup since the price models itself on the double arcs and square lines. But here you recognize better where the main support (1100) is lying. If that one breaks the price will be expected to be passed through at least until the lowest Gann Angle (1*2) marked in the chart. If that happens we should reckon on a 13 day down swing.

Weekly Gold:

In the issue 02/21/2010 of the GUNNER24 Forecasts, we pointed to the weekly target of 1148 as to the last up swing. As we can see in the following 8 Candle Weekly GUNNER24 Up that target was missed tightly (red 13). Unusual, the high was only at 1145.8.

 

The situation: We recognize that with the week closing the gold closed exactly on the 1*1 Gann Angle. The price is also above the acceleration area where we can expect quick moves as soon as the price is located in it. Furthermore a possible time line symmetry is in the air. Since the all time high, the price has been falling, rising, falling, rising from time line to time line. If the symmetry is confirmed and if the support falls at 1100 you can reckon on a low at 1020 the week after next. In the daily setup as well as in the weekly one, the 1100 are an extremely important support! The candle count is not looking rosy either. The week before last, the gold formed an important high at 1145.8. In addition, it was the 13th week within the several week down swing. That count indicates a 21 week down swing which would end on 05/03/2010. So far, in our forecasts we were assuming that an important high would be marked at that date. But we should not rush anything, the 1100 are an important support. Next week should show the decision whether we may reckon on rising (what I still assume) or falling prices on weekly basis.

Well, as we know, the gold is running ahead of the stock markets, and the possible break of the 1100 may suggest the end of the exhaustion up moves in the stock markets!

 

In the NDX we see an obvious exhaustion move. Two Breakaway Gaps. The price is orienting itself by the primary Gann Angle which is unambiguously too steep to be a healthy rise. So, after reaching the main target we can expect an extreme price crash. In the past, the primary Gann Angle used to be broken first and then re-conquered clearly and lasting. That performance is typical with the exhaustion moves.

Also the NQ # weekly GUNNER24 Up Setup shows that the 4th double arc in the daily GUNNER24 Setup can be broken upwards next week:

 

If we finish the move next week a spike until 1980 will be possible. That corresponds with the main target (5th double arc) in the NDX 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup.

Also the YM # daily 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup shows there is still some room upwards:

 

Here, as well, the main target is just a good day away and thus it's in reach. Just with a strong Monday/Tuesday, the 10700 could be reached. To get the optimal short entry, we will watch the break of the primary Gann Angle combined with a reversal candle.

Conclusion: We will have to adjust ourselves to a very eventful week. It only takes one or two strong days to hit the main targets. Then down at first. That doesn't mean necessarily next week we are going to crash down immediately, a slow approach to the tops or a week of consolidation respectively is possible as well. Because seen from the time angle, the tops are not to be expected before the end of March.

Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann

 

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