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Since the beginning of 2017, US Crude Oil has been going like clockwork in respect of the correspondingly triggered GUNNER24 Signals resp. turning targets. The individual trends in 2017 are sustainable, the future GUNNER24 Targets use to be worked off correspondingly, and the turning signals are easy to be identified.
Last Wednesday, the current US Crude Oil (WTI) downtrend reached its low up to now at 42.05$ afterwards showing first signs of a developing upswing/bounce in the daily time frame.
US Crude Oil was expected to hit 1*1 Bull Market Angle support that is derived from important # 1 // 2016 Bear Market Low which was cemented at 26.05$ in course of February 2016:
At the beginning of April, we could pretty easily commit ourselves to the expectation that the 1*1 Bull Market Angle test would ensue either in the uptrend month # 16 = May 2017 or # 17 = June 2017 or # 18 = August 2017 at the latest. Depending on the moment when Crude Oil would finish off the test of the 1*1 Bull Market Angle, the target area of the downtrend according price was between 41.50$ and the “round” 43$.
==> On Wednesday, the 1*1Bull Market Angle was worked off at the 42.05$ downtrend low thus having been tested for the very first time:
Above, I present to you the still completely dominating Crude Oil monthly 12/13/14/15 Candle up reading at the week closing. Technically, just two highly probable courses for Crude Oil remain. Normally…:
A) With more than 65% probability of occurrence, at the downtrend low a strong upwards bounce started, for the majority of the market participants “surprisingly”, being actually supposed to test back the Blue Arc resistance, another determining resistance for the year 2017 until the uptrend month # 19-August 2017. Thereby, the new target for Crude Oil in the monthly scale is at 51$.
Or, B) less likely, with a probability of less than 35%, the 1*1 Bull Market Angle fails to hold during the coming days, resp. 1 to 2 trading weeks, then 1*2 Support Angle becomes next official GUNNER24 Target being expected to be worked off in the course of August 2017. For this, watch the red dotted arrow scenario. Price downtarget for this option is therewith 35.40$ at the 1*2 Support Angle.
==> Since Crude Oil is testing now the technically very strongest and very most important bull market support from the # 1 // 2016 Bear Market Low in the combined monthly and yearly time frames being actually A) these 1*1 Gann Angles always hard to break with the first tests from above and – still much better for the bulls – as a rule developing B) enormously strong upwards forces once the first test is considered as to be successful, we should lean to the long side in Crude Oil now.
==> We should await a stronger bounce the coming days and weeks which in extreme is able to test back the Blue Arc from below at 51.00$ in course of # 19-August 2017.
==> Also the weekly time frame indicates that the market should have turned on Wednesday:
Above, you see a weekly 18 Candle elliptical up setup that may be applied, too, at the attained 2016 Bear Low. In the course of the year, I’ve presented and analyzed it many a time. Last time I did was likewise within the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of April-2 entitled "2 new Crude Oil Sell-Triggers, valid for April 2017". The expectation then was that – released by the overall support of the 1st double arc – a next important lower countertrend high in the 52$ environment should have to be reached, and afterwards hard down into the 41.50$ to 43$ downtarget...
Here and now, the setup’s update on the Friday close. The 1st double arc is up to now and thus additionally for the near and further future a very, very important magnet for the oil! This realization helps us very much in regard of the signaling:
Watch yourself the way the lines of the 1st double arc – the upper and the lower one – “regulate” the market. ==> All the little green and red arrows show us important turns resp. important highs and lows, triggered/influenced either by the upper or the lower line of the 1st double arc.
We recognize that last week tested from above the upper line of the 1st double arc at the downtrend low. Thereby, Crude Oil not only reached and as expected worked off the combined monthly and yearly support at the 42.05$ low, but also some totally natural weekly time frame arc support kicked in then and there.
==> Thus, Crude Oil met combined support in the weekly, monthly and yearly time frames at 42.05$. That’s why it’s now allowed and likely with a 65% that the next rather powerful countertrend swing has started being able to reach the 51$ at the # 19-August high.
Well, now we come to the aspect that in my opinion is the most interesting of today’s analysis…
We know that the lines of the 1st double arc are important for the oil, it’s where some turns took place – important highs and lows were released by the lines of the 1st.
Thereby, the 1st double arc is confirmed to be important in respect of price and time, and that’s why the 1st suits now automatically as another forecast aspect concerning the volatility point of view:
Crude Oil is nearing the moment when the lower line of the 1st intersects the time axis. It’s the trading week from July-3 to7. Whenever in the past the line of a double arc were that important, subsequently the intersection points of this double arc line with the time axis have also given really ALWAYS some important time signals resp. periods for the market that are important for the future.
The upper line of the 1st double arc intersects the time axis for the trading week July-31 to August-4.
==> Thereby, the period July-3 to August-4 is very important for the future development, much more important than it used to be so far in 2017. So, since up to date the trends in Crude Oil were pretty stable in 2017 – at first rather sideways for several months, then strong down in trend – by implication July-3 to August-4 is supposed to be a very unstable period. With very, very wild swings.
I.e., the time between July-3 and August-4 is expected to become EXTREMELY volatile. A so-called panic cycle should show in the period July-3 to August-4 (give always +- 2 trading days).
A panic cycle allows everything. The lot is permitted then. The possible main scenarios are highlighted in the chart and in the setup.
A) The main scenario was described already. Crude cracks upwards, unchecked up to 51$ till August-1, 2, 3 or 4.
AA) If Crude Oil succeeds in having a weekly close above 45.50$ between July-3 and August-4, it would be a first very powerful buy signal notifying then with a 75% of probability the 51$ to be worked off through August-4 (give +- 2 trading days)!
AB) Since Crude Oil is supposed to be in the panic cycled the coming weeks, at the end of that cycle the 51$ uptarget at the monthly Blue Arc will be allowed to want to be overshot by far. Perhaps by 1$ or even by 2$. Such a clear overshooting of an important year resistance resp. uptarget in the yearly time frame should have to be considered as a strong, medium-term buy signal then.
B) Till August 4, Crude Oil wants to take approximately the course specified by the dark-red forecast line. At first up to 44.50$-45$, indeed till around July-3, when the panic cycle is likely to start. Then brutally hard down through August till the last test of the upper line of the 1st could be due. This would be the scenario of 35% of probability suggested above with the monthly analysis.
BB) If Crude Oil produces a weekly close below the 42$ between July-3 and August-4, we’ll have the next mighty sell signal notifying with 85% of probability the 35.40$ to be worked off through August-4 (give +- 2 trading days)!
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Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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