Gold-Bulls: Please fasten seatbelts again

The panic cycle is now approaching its first maximum extreme point. Certainly the last two weeks were characterized by hefty panic sales already, but what we might be confronted with next week may outclass the severe sell-off waves of the last half of July unambiguously:

Fasten your seatbelts! The weekly 13 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup is signaling great alarm. In terms of time gold is approaching the first possible maximum peak of the selling climax. Concretely that means: An important low is due, perhaps the final low of the entire multi-month decline.

The 4th double arc is the fun brake per se. It’s one of the most brutal resistances I’ve ever observed or had to note in thousands of markets in the weekly time frame.

Somewhere I read last week that the actual gold decline has been the worst since 1920 in terms of percentage…

The lower line of the 4th double arc is intersecting the time axis in the span of July 06-14. This is how long the resistance influence lasts that is exercised by the lower line of the 4th. Whenever a line of a double arc intersects the time axis in an up setup, on the one hand something comes to an end and on the other hand something new begins. Concretely that means for us: Either this selling climax will end as early as within the few days: July 05-08 with the sell-off low or a little later, between July 09 and 15.

The second possible maximum peak of the selling climax is the middle of August. That’s when the upper line of the 4th double arc cuts the time axis. This would be pretty gloomy for gold investors because 10 more weeks of sell-off and a final low in the precious metals not before the middle of August, would easily have to lead to prices below 1000$ in gold and 15$ in silver.

But I consider the down-pressure as to be much more likely to finish till July 14 because the influence of the lower line of the 4th is much more important for the gold price than the influence of the upper line of the 4th. In my opinion the lowest low of the down wave going on since October 2012 will be formed until July 14. The expected August low is likely to be higher than the July low.

The grounds: It’s obvious that the entire 4th double arc has pressed gold down chasing it since October. The trigger for the multi-month decline was the lower line of the 4th being reached at the beginning of October 2012. In the course of the last 9 months the lower line being touched or reached has led much more frequently to new sell-waves/declines/sell-offs than the upper line of the 4th double arc being touched or reached.

So far we’ve considered the temporal aspect, still the assessment of the sentiment and the price target is pending.

Sentiment: Please pay attention to the last two weekly candles – long and red. Responsible for these hefty red weekly candles are mainly the Asian Specs covering their gold-longs designed for years in order to be able to get by. They are closing long positions in a panic because some important supports (1322, 1272, 1222 and the psychological 1200) have fallen fast. The keyword is liquidity crunch, illuminated extensively in the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of last week.

I’ve come to this thesis because time and again in Junes was to be observed that shortly after opening the price declines used to start. Usually the Asian Traders buy the precious metals up after opening, and the Europeans and the Americans use to press at the London fixings. But now it’s elementary for the Asian Specs to survive. That’s much more important than their severe losses in their gold and silver investments.

If the most important resistance – in this case the lower line of the 4th – is temporally approaching the end, as it is in gold now, if this resistance is expiring the negative sentiment will intensify more and more till the end of the resistance. I.e. the panic will keep on increasing through the end. The volatilities and the severity of the declines in price and time accelerate till the selling climax in price will have exhausted. It will have when the buyer side will prevail over the seller side.

Let’s go to the price view now. At which point can the selling climax really be finished? Let’s first go back again to the weekly 13 candle up setup. Mind the resistance of the lower line of the 4th double arc for the next trading week – the week when we may expect now a sell-off low. The lower line of the 4th is at about 1258-1262. That’s where the very best – because most riskless – short-entry for the next sell-off wave that might be the last one!

Since the negative sentiment, the panic, will have to increase again inevitably until the sell-off low we should make clear to ourselves that many supports situated beneath the current price, aren’t actually likely to have a major signification any more. During the panic moves the supports are nearly insignificant, no matter how strong they seem to be. In case of selling climaxes we’ll have to throw overboard the daily and weekly supports forgetting them, they’re insignificant. In the sell-off mode only the monthly time frame with its important supports may help us along:

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That successfully is the actual monster-wave dealt with by the GUNNER24 Gold Trader. Here are some GUNNER24 Gold Traders’ assessments of the last days: