Crude Oil outlook 2016

As it’s become a good tradition, today again, for the lapse of January through March, I’d like to make likewise publicly available a couple of our ideas and perspectives we use to develop on yearly base for our institutional customers.

So, let’s begin our little series of the envisaged prospects resp. prognosis for 2016 with crude oil since this is where the music is playing at the moment and in the foreseeable future, hence therewith – in mere theory – a pretty lot of good money is supposed to be made.

For getting started and for refreshing: free GUNNER24 Forecast for the year 2015, published a year ago, on 01/25/2015:

==> A brief summary of the crude oil forecasts a year ago:

A) Multiple-confirmed downtarget for 2015 was the 2008 low at 33.50$ to be worked off with a probability of more than a 90%.

B) Furthermore – in case the 2008 low at 33.50$ on monthly closing base bears up and can be defended – from the 33.50$ decade support area a new upleg should have to begin persisting a few years!!!!

C) Also the following make-or-break statement was made however: “A monthly closing price below 32.80 in the course of the year 2015 would keep on mobilizing defense forces. In this case the 20$ surroundings will be activated as next downtarget for the 1Q/2016 – please mind on this the upper line double arc support in the combined setup.“

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Ultimately, the 33.50 decade support could NOT be defended in 2015. Crude oil closed December 2015 and thereby the year 2015 significantly below the 33.50 decade support trail generating another significant GUNNER24 Sell Signal. The 2015 year close is at 37.04. Thus, the following targets according to price and time are activated:

Time-Outlook:

==> There’s a 90% of probability for the year low now to occur in the 1Q/2016. The year low is most likely to be seen either in February or April. The US stock market likely will – for this thesis please observe again the free GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 01/17/2016 - bottom in 2016 April or maybe early May, rather exactly 1 year after the all-time highs of the year 2015. Technically, crude oil would have to get to its year bottom closely before that. After the 1Q/2016 lows, should have to turn in a sharp upwards trend in the monthly time frame to top out between 10/2016 and 02/2017.

Price-Outlook:

Above in the text as well as in the monthly chart, at the beginning of 2015 I assumed this bear to bottom in the 20$ surroundings.

Now, I’d like to adjust and fine-tune this relatively rough bear-market 2016 price downtarget fathoming the upwards move that follows the 1Q/2016 bottom.

For that, let’s begin with the BIG-TIME picture of this earth’s most important raw material.

Let’s first consider the development since the final bear market low of the year 1998 up to the alltime-high (ATH) of the year 2008 as well as the structure of the downtrend beginning at the 2008 ATH till today:

Beginning at the 1998 bear market low, an initial up impulse developed lasting 22 months, hence till the 2001 high. 21 months after the 1998 bear-market low, the 2001 high was marked.

==> Thus, the monthly setup measures 22 months up, from the 1998 bear low till the 2001 high.

We realize how accurately and thereby harmonically crude oil complied with the further guidelines of the 22 candle initial up impulse because:

The 2003 high as well as the 2005 high and likewise the 2007 high with the respectively subsequent multi-month bull market corrections were influenced by the 1st, 2nd and 3rd double arc magnets.

==> Furthermore, the 2008 bear market low as well as the year 2015 high were caused by a double arc magnet: A) The 2008 bear low could not turn up and subsequently, the market could not rise before the upper line of the 3rd had ended its influence in terms of time. The intersection of the upper line of the 5th with the time axis led B) to the 2015 high = important countertrend high.

As to the textbook, this very first initial up impulse of the 1998-2008 bull market moreover forecast the ATH at the 5th double arc resistance. The 2008 ATH was ditto brought in pinpoint at the orange dotted vertical, an important time line = ITL. Both natural GUNNER24 Turning Marks of the 5th double arc and the ITL jointly signaled a possible end of the 1998-2008 bull market. So it happened.

Die 5th double arc is therewith ATH resistance double arc. The 5th was confirmed as ATH resistance double arc by the first lower bear year 2011 high. Please mind the fat red double arrow depicting the relation of the ATH with the year high 2011 at the 5th resistance.

==> The very first initial down impulse springing from the 2011 high is most likely to be crucial for the now expected/coming price low of the 1Q/2016 bear low. Mind about this the next monthly chart and the GUNNER24 Analysis afterwards!

Yet before I go in detail into the importance of the 2011 high and its consequences to the awaited 1Q/2016 bear market bottom, once more to the nearly perfect performance of crude oil at some other important magnets.

Marvelously apparent is what an impression of importance the 1*2 Gann Angle (1*2 Key Support Angle) practiced onto the orange ovals in this millennium. Being still resistance at the beginning of the millennium, from 2005 to 2008 it operated as the most important support. Being heftily broken during the 2008 bear market, it could be re-conquered quickly then supporting crude oil – from 2009 into the year 2014 – till it was given up finally at the red X in 11/2014.