GUNNER24 Trade of the Day 12/28/2018
The 1:3 Trade: Buy SLV ETF at 13.99
Dear GUNNER24 Traders,
The 1:3 Trade: Buy SLV ETF at 13.99
Our 1:3 trades are A) adjusted to a longer term, having a spacious stop-loss for the development not to be endangered and B) have to show a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.
SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF) tracks the silver spot price, less expenses and liabilities, using silver bullion held in London.
Within monthly SLV candlestick chart below you recognize the valid monthly GUNNER24 Up Setup which overlays the SLV course since its important year 2016 Bear Market Low. Setup is a classic 8 Fib number candle up and reveils that the countertrend, that started at the # 1 // 2016 Bear Market low, made his final high after a 9 month candle advance exactly at the first square line resistance:
As we know, the past few years have not been very satisfying for precious metal bulls. And I do not think that will change in the next few years. But after all, silver has formed a now quite solid looking double bottom on a yearly basis, which wants to dissolve upwards actually.
The # 1 // year 2016 Bear Market Low is at 13.04$ and the two important lows of 2018 have arrived at 13.11$. This means that price made small higher low on yearly base at # 34-September and # 36-November 2018 lows and somehow it is already noticeable that the first 13.11$ bear extreme of this year was printed exactly 34 month candles after the 2016 Bear Market Low. As you know, 34 is a very high, correspondingly important Fib number and possible trend turn date, thus according to our rules the monthly trend might have turned from down to up at # 34 // 13.11$ // September 2018 Low.
Hmm - valid until today, this month candle development is most bullish candle since over a 1 year and this indirectly confirms the likely monthly trend change! And although this probable underway monthly bull trend or upcycle may have started only after the successful backtest of the 13.11$ support and thus cemented 2018 Double Low of # 36-November 2018!
The new monthly upcycle started really well in terms of the price but only with the December open. Because with this time event, something was skipped that prevented SLV from rising. Notably the lower line of 1st above in the monthly chart, I strongly suppose. This very likely important resistance skip with the December 2018 opening action is also well visible in the daily chart below ...
Ok. If the lower line of a double arc in an up setup was important for the market or price - and therefore is confirmed as important - then in most cases also the upper line of this double arc will be future important for the market (a turn/a price extreme/a trend continuation trigger). And that`s why I expect SLV to test that upper line of 1st - usually stronger upmagnet resistance - in further course of this newly started monthly upcycle.
And actually this should now be an important upward magnet in the course of the coming month January 2019, since then and there at 15.15$ to 15.20$ the confirmed important (pinpoint negative backtest at noted year 2018 lower monthly high) declining dark-red Yearly Countertrend Resistance runs and thus forms a very interesting future upcycle magnet with the upper line of 1st upmagnet/uptarget.
==> Strong monthly upmagnet at 15.15$ to 15.20$ for January 2019!
==> That`s why the shortterm uptarget of todays presented SLV-long setup is at 15.15$. As always, we are careful about the possible future market goals.
Here is the announced daily chart. We see that the SLV ETF is leaving its 91-day fairly narrow trading range upwards. The monthly opening gap, which is torn by the 13.63$ December opening auction, I have marked:
Over the Xmas holidays, the market jumped over the BOX in which he spent 91 Trading Days. This BOX price range is 14.09$ down to 13.11$, the occured 2018 monthly Double Low.
See, that until the very last trading day of November the price went just sideways. Then at open of the new month a monthly, even a resistance on yearly base was skipped and the December 2018 open triggered the likely new monthly but for sure daily and weekly upcycle which on Wednesday for the first time closed above (14.11$) the red BOX resistance horizontal. Yesterday shows bullish follow through on closing base after a massive = very trend confirming bullish upwards gap.
I find it in terms of time or in terms of an important turn again very noticeable that the SLV stayed a total of 91 Trading Days in the BOX before it went beyond ==> this last important cycle very likely was have been oriented to the 89 Fib number...
This one is on go now for the next backtest of the falling Yearly Countertrend Resistance line, I suppose!:
Daily momentum is strong bullish until today, without radiating disturbing signals. Momentum and price together showing higher highs and higher lows pattern! Strong, and clean daily and weekly uptrend! That's why the final overcoming of the BOX resistance should succeed and thus the next higher important resistance upmagnet should be tested in further course.
Also daily chart condition offers the test of the falling Yearly Countertrend Resistance at 15.20$ to 15.15$ area in course of January 2019!
==> We should buy a backtest of currently most important supports. The 14.09$ BOX line, prior resistance usually is now first strong daily support and interesting future downmagnet. Next lower daily and weekly support is the "round" 14$ number.
The 14.09$-14.00$ test/backtest would be just classic uptrend backtesting behavior and could happen as more and more traders have finished their holidays!
==> We try a long attempt at 13.99$. 13.99$-Buy-Limit order is valid until Friday, 4th of January 2019.
==> SL for the 1:3-trade setup is placed at 13.66$!
==> Shortterm uptarget is next bearish backtest of Yearly Countertrend Resistance at 15.15$ sometimes in course of January 2019.
Risk = 0.33$. Potential reward = 1.16$. Risk-reward ratio 0.33/1.16 or 1:3.52
GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 12/28/2018:
Market: iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
Orders: Buy-Limit at 13.99. Stop-Loss (SL) at 13.66. Shortterm uptarget at 15.15. Buy-Limit order valid till 01/04/2019.
Markets, Money Management and Trade Size
I will merely analyze the market. There are so many instruments in the world outside our GUNNNER24 Traders use to trade, and hundreds of popular ones among them, often depending on a trader’s time horizons... I don’t consider me able to adjust the market recommendations to all the popular ETFs, different CFD or futures contracts. All I’ll analyze is pure market action - the index, stock or most current contract and forex!
The trade size you should use depends.
A) On your account size:
I usually follow the rule of thumb which says, never bet more than 1% of your account size for each trade. So I avoid overtrading...
Let’s say you have got a 30.000US$ account granting you a nominal buying power of 300.000US$ up to 500.000US$ and even more, depending on your broker and instrument. In that case your trade size shouldn’t be more than 3.000US$-5.000US$ taking into account your buying power.
Another - more conservative - method is taking into account the available margin. Usually, 30.000US$ account value equals 30.000US$ available for margin trading. So the trade size is 300US$ taking into account the margin.
Within Trade of the Day I ask you not to bet more than this 1% per any trade.
The other point to consider for determining the trade size is:
B) if your trading style is rather active, supposing you regularly have 30-50 open trades, just as I have - CFD/ETF, here some stocks, there a future contract. So I often trade risky somehow, but I split the money/bets. Even in such a nice trend as the stocks are showing currently, I never ever trade too risky. I never load the boat with 70% let 90% of my account size. 50% is the maximum.
I trade for my living and for my kids and wife as well. A regular income is important. The big-bang bet isn’t! The market would win such a big-bang bet for sure!!
When I have a lot of open trades, maybe up to this 50% of my account size/available margin I avoid trading more. So if you are an active trader having a lot of trades running at rev limiter (50% account size) please avoid trading even though we/I give you some fresh recommendations, because this would rise YOUR risk!... During the test phase that happened frequently. We had 3-5 open trades sometimes and that’s why it’s elementary important that we/you have to use tight SL. Order management is absolutely crucial for Trade of the Day.
You’ll have to place really each and every order accordingly, you know. Forgetting only one time the SL would make this trade getting worse and worse…
Long Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) at 151.15$ since 06. December 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 168.50$.
Long Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) at 85.50$ since 16. November 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 93.60$.
Long IWM ETF at 154.40$ since 09. November 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 159.50$.
Long Facebook (FB) at 150.00$ since 11. October 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Main uptarget is 210.00$.
Long Procter & Gamble Company (PG) at 83.60$ since 18. September 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget and 2018 main uptarget at 89.20$ is worked off! 100$ is next higher uptarget!
Long QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) at 70.30$ since 12. September 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 82.00. 2019 main uptarget at 99.00.
Long Intel Corp. (INTC) at 49.45$ since 26. June 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2018 uptarget at 57.25$.
Long Vocera Communications, Inc. (VCRA) at 27.75$ since 13. June 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 32.23$ is worked off. 2018 uptarget at 35.70$ is worked off!
Long Cree, Inc. (CREE) at 40.32$ since 27. March 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 48.40$ is worked off!
Long Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) at 52.00$ since 28. March 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2019 main uptarget at 70.50$!!
Long SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) at 87.20$ since 04. January 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 93.50$ is worked off. 2018 main uptarget at 100.00$ is worked off!
Long iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN (JJNTF) at 14.87$ since 09. November 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 16.25$. 2018 main uptarget at 20.00$.
Long Rambus Inc. (RMBS) at 14.35$ since 25. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget range at 15.80$-16.55$. 2018 main uptarget at 18.55$.
Long Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) at 41.10$ since 09. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 46.00$ is reached.
Long Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (PTX) at 5.50$ since 15. May 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 9.00$. Midterm uptarget is 15.00$.
Long Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG) at 11.00$ since 27. February 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 14.35$.
Long Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG) at 11.50$ since 10. February 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 14.35$.
Long Freeport McMoRan Inc. (FCX) at 14.30$ since 15. December 2016.
No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm uptarget at 16.43$ is worked off. Midterm
uptargets at 22.00$/24.00$.
Long Torex Gold Inc. (TXG.TO) at 32.80 CAD$ since 09. September 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL)! Shortterm uptarget at 39.00 CAD$.
Long McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) at 4.60$ since 19. August 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL)! Shortterm uptarget at 5.50$. Midterm uptarget is 6.00$. Main target is 7.40$.
Long United States Steel Corporation (X) at 17.30$ since 24. December 2018. Stop-Loss (SL) at 16.75$. Shortterm uptarget is 22.90$.
Long EURUSD at 1.1375 since 18. December 2018. Stop-Loss (SL) at 1.1295. Shortterm uptarget at 1.1655.
Short Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (KL) at 25.00$ since 18. December 2018. Stop-Loss (SL) is a weekly close above 25.60$. Shortterm downtarget is 21.29$.
Long Infosys Limited (INFY) at 9.49$ since 09. July 2018. Stop-Loss (SL) at 8.80$. First yearly uptarget at 11.00$. Main uptarget at 12.00$. 2:1 Stock Split on 09/12/2018.
Long Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) at 40.80$ since 06. April 2018. Stop-Loss (SL) at 39.70$. Shortterm uptarget at 44.40$ is worked off. 2018 main uptarget at 47.50$ is worked off.
Long eBay Inc. (EBAY) at 41.00$ since 09. February 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 47.40$.
Long Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) at 60.00$ since 16. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 66.90$. 2018 main target at 77.00$.
Long Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) at 8.10$ since 08. September 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 11.05$. Main uptarget for 2018 at 12.00$.
Short S&P 500 Index at 1880 since 14. January 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm downtarget at 1740.
Long Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) at 43.09$ since 09. July 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Longterm Buy-Target in 2016 is 60.50$.
Long GLOBAL X Silver MINERS ETF (SIL) at 13.79$ since 18. March 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm target at 15.48$. Main targets 17.42$ and 20.00$.
Short S&P 500 Index at 1820 since 11. February 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm downtarget at 1740.
Based on the George Douglas Taylor Trading Technique that I’ve been studied and originally traded for years transferring it onto the modern markets by constant observation a five day pattern of the single days of the week has resulted.
The crux is not so much that the entire week has to work perfectly. Perhaps it does just at a 50% because the day patterns may shift by one or two days. In the strong upwards trends sometimes you see 4 buy days and only 1 sell day. It’s important to recognize that the day proceeds ideally-typically and to trade accordingly.
My personal trading style has always been the contrary to that of the crowds because the crowds always loose. Especially in gold and silver trading I like to buy the corrections Monday to Wednesday and on Friday if the day patterns correspond with some important GUNNER24 Signals.
I use to go short intraday just on Thursday when the week high is sold off AND provided that the corresponding GUNNER24 Setups signal so covering the shorts when the cycle is resumed.
The ideal five day pattern in an upwards trend – precious metals and US stock market – Do use those patterns for your intraday and swing activities!
Monday: Buy day. Strong up-day. Low established first. It often ends at the day high. Unthinkingly you may buy all the intraday corrections because the week high comes later in the course of the week.
Tuesday: Buy day. Weaker up-day. A higher high is produced. As early as now the crowds ponder whether the prices mightn’t run too high partially going short already. For me it’s the day when I can cover my Friday and Monday longs. In intraday I try to go long in case of corrections until the Comex opening.
Wednesday: Sell day. Actually the day for covering the longs and for the first short entry. It’s got some different forms. It closes at the same level as it had opened. Frequently at first the high is established because more and more traders short the market. Here the longs fight against the shorts. You recognize that if many teeth, many nicks, many spike candles are to be seen in the chart. On Wednesday I use to do nothing. Only at a 20 to 30% the shorter hearts are pleased because during the whole day there’s only sell-off.
Thursday: The classical sell short day. Because the Wednesdays often close as they had opened the market participants have to cover their shorts because in the beginning the market runs quickly upwards…! And frequently they turn their positions into the high direction being caught on the wrong trail again. Then the market often lays down a beautiful sell-off. In the evening mostly a strong rally follows. That’s where we cover the shorts.
Friday: Classical buy day in the upwards trend. It’s nothing for weak hands. Here’s where you buy the positions near the Thursday lows which you cover again next Tuesday/Wednesday. If you discover that the prices have steadied or even are rising a little bit by closing the five day cycle should continue in the following week.
In the charts we work with the following symbols: