GUNNER24 Trade of the Day 02/06/2020
The 1:3 Trade: Buy Tesla at 600.00
Dear GUNNER24 Traders,
The 1:3 Trade: Buy Tesla at 600.00
Our 1:3 trades are A) adjusted to a longer term, having a spacious stop-loss for the development not to be endangered and B) have to show a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.
Quick & Dirty
NASDAQ listed Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is the new Short-Sellers-nightmare and develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. Tesla was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Now as the shorts have lost dozens of billions finally because they had to cover, they are licking their wounds and officially declare yesterday that TSLA is now in the bear market. Because the shares have lost more than -20% since top, made 2 days ago... market cap is insane high compared to Ford, VW, blah, blah.
Their intentions are obvious. Bears are sweating and feel fear in their necks that TSLA shares will continue to rally and wish to go higher and higher. Therefore - at the very first opportunity – company and Elon Musk must now be written down to create some bad mood or bear market fears.
Whereat every skilled trader and investor suspects or knows for sure that the activated Big Round 1000$ W.D. Gann upmagnet number has to be tested after a 968.99$ at high. 1000!!!! - This is magical upmagnet. Obvious DECADE uptarget magnet! When this will occure is of course behind the curtains so far. Tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, in a few weeks? Actually, it doesn't really matter as far as the normal investor is concerned. But definitely in the course of this year ...
Before we work out our entry and uptarget of today's long try with the help of the monthly chart and the currently most determining GUNNER24 Setup on monthly base, let's first look at the daily chart. What has happened. Count, behavior, volume, Fib retracement supports etc.
Most important first. The leg what started at 176.99$ important June 2019 Low reached the 968.99$ extreme after 170 trading days AND at a to the important 34-Fib number oriented week cycle! It ran for 35 week candles!
Top, 2 days ago, is classic topping candle what is confirmed by largest daily volume ever and yesterday bear reversal candle. I have 7 days of panic cycle what is common number for an important or final exhaustion leg of an important cycle. So, time-hints fits with volume-sign and candlestick-signal. A bear market, a pullback, a correction – whatever - is underway.
Common, quite normal backtest targets of above 35 week-long upcycle are:
38.2% Fib retracement at evil!!! 666$, 50% Fib retracement support at 573$ and somewhat lower into 61.8% Fib retracement which stands at 480$.
Above, I have placed green-yellow oval. And this is my tip within TSLA shares should bottom for shortterm and should start a Dead Cat Bounce which looks like testing back 900$!! within days/weeks!
Please! Volatility is at extremes. Bears have some hope. Bulls have upper hand. Shares trade within 200$ margin/day actually and this is why our 600$-long entry order could be triggered even later today!
Before I analyse actually best working up setup on monthly base first a very brief refresher of my last TSLA analysis, which I did in the public GUNNER24 NL on January 19th.
Click either on the two charts below that I published at that time, or here! - Click me ...
What I want to show impressively is that we`ve recognized the importance of the 640$-620$ region earlier this year. This is natural important range and unites to MAJOR important from these two important setups:
==> since 620$-640$ area became widely overshoot, this major=combined monthly magnet is now natural future W.D. Gann main support and therefore the ideal backtest/correction/bear market target!, from which a mighty 150$-200$ bounce may start!
Here comes my freshly found eye opener.
It is a monthly 20 Candle up – so obviously oriented to the important 21 Fib turn number. It starts measuring to the upside at # 1 // final low of 2016 and Blue Arc depicts the final high of # 20-2017 High. So it measures the range from a final year low up to a final year high.
Looks like above Blue Arc represents stuff on yearly base, therfore it could be that ANY of the setup items do influence price and time also on yearly base, at least sometimes, perhaps often. This explains, at least partially, the unusual strenght of the developments of the past few weeks.
Hmm. Watch the timeline signal-line what marks the end of yearly Blue Arc resistance influence. As Blue Arc run out in time. Shortly afterwards TSLA began to rally.
The upper line of 1st slowed price for some days at reached 2019 Highs which have been made 27th of Dec19. Therefore upper line of 1st not only was or is a rail on yearly base, it also automatically became important rail in the most important DECADE time frame as price there was halted by 2009-2019 DECADE window.
424.50$ this year and this DECADE open and 424.71$ year low, so far DECADE low, have skipped upper line of 1st DECADE rail and are seen exactly at upper line of 1st from above and up she went literally after the first minute of trading in the new year and new DECADE.
Somehow exactly same behaviour is seen at upper line of 2nd rail. This line was skipped by the Feb20 open = Feb20 low. Skipping this next perhaps "yearly & and/or DECADE" threshold triggered some more unusual bullish power which stoppend and exhausted 110% accurately at a natural G24 Horizontal and at 968.99$ this year high, made on Tuesday. This G24 Horizonal Resistance and the work off of 3rd double arc resistance uptarget environement on yearly/DECADE base triggered the retracement.
This Feb20 high at natural G24 Item what could offer monthly, yearly and even DECADE resistance is seen at 49th month candle after important # 1 // 2016 Low. A # 49-important top appears totally meaningless. Important resp. final bull highs near the 55 Fib number or influenced by the 55 would be much more normal outcome. And this usually means that TSLA according the time is not ready for a real bear. More likely it will continue to rally into summer and therefore usually has to work off also 1000$ Big, Big Price magnet. At least...
So, TSLA shares have unfinished business with the Big Round 1000$.
==> DECADE uptarget at 1.000.00$!!!
By the way. Experience shows that the 3rd double arcs are important trend targets. Of course. However, shares usually like to top finally out at 5th double arcs, or end of setups according price. Especially in this secular bull market which began at 2009 lows! Therefore I think, this 3rd double arc could break shares on weekly and perhaps monthly base, but usually will be overcome finally sometimes in the future...
Next. Please join my worked out entry idea:
Price is back below 2*1 Angle, therefore it is likely that this downer wants the backtest of 2nd double arc, to confirm this area as important future support on at least monthly, but perhaps also on yearly & DECADE base.
Quite common backtest magnet is the monthly opening gap which stands 673.52$. This is future important support magnet because torn gap magnet adds to upper line of 2nd rail. The downer usually has to test this magnet, IMHO! This is very interesting support magnet. There around additionally runs EVIL 38.2% Fib retracement at 666$!!!
Cause Jan20 opening gap could filled completely this offers next lower important monthly support = this one is at 650.57$ = Jan20 close!
Next lower MAJOR GUNNER24 Support Magnet - a triple magnet - is backtest target of Support Angle & round 600$ and lower line of 2nd. This 600$-triple stuff only forms for the month of February 2020 and somehow I smell a test of the 600$ MAJOR is pending This one could radiate strongest support maybe, cause plausibe triple DECADE support rail for Feb20!
==> 1:3-Buy-Limit at 600.00$ Order is valid for entire February 2020!
50% Fib retracement support is at 573$! This is max. retracement price could reach I foresee actually. But I`m not sure if bears are able to press price into this somehow too obvious support and turn area after such unsusual strong rally and occured very, very rare GUNNER24 Buy Signal on DECADE BASE. Think, bulls will step in before the tooooo obvious 573$.
=> Usually once 673.52$ to 600$ DECADE SUPPORT Magnet Area is worked off TSLA shares should turn again and usually have to test back 2020 high surroundings, whereby lower line of 3rd Dead Cat Bounce upmagnet might be strongest attraction upmagnet!
==> Interesting Dead Cat Bounce upmagnet at 895$! Might be tested in course of Feb20!
==> Please place the SL for this trade setup at 545.00$!
Risk = 55$. Potential reward = 295$. Risk-reward ratio 55/295 or 1:5.36
GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 02/06/2020:
Market: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Orders: Buy-Limit at 600.00. Stop-Loss (SL) at 545.00. Dead Cat Bounce uptarget at 895.00. DECADE uptarget is 1000.00. Buy-Limit order valid till 02/28/2020.
Market: Newmont Goldcorp Corporation (NEM)
Cover-Order: Sell-Limit order at 46.40 to close = exit the 41.75 long position.
Market: Boeing Co. (BA)
Orders: Sell-Limit at 333.00. Stop-Loss (SL) at 344.00. First downtarget at 298.00. Possible 2020 major downtarget at 236.00. Sell-Limit order valid until tomorrow, 02/07/2020.
Market: Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)
Orders: Buy-Limit at 126.00. Stop-Loss (SL) at 119.50. Shortterm uptarget at 147.00. 2020-2021 main uptarget at 175.00. Buy-Limit order is valid until tomorrow, 02/07/2020.
Market: Irving Recources Inc. (IRVRF)
Orders: Buy-Limit at 2.43. Stop-Loss (SL) at 2.23. Shortterm uptarget at 3.05. Buy-Limit order is valid until tomorrow, 02/07/2020.
Long Bill.com Holdings, Inc. (BILL) at 50.98$. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 59.30$.
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) at 285.85$ since 10. January 2020. NO SL!! Midterm uptarget at 350.00$.
Long Newmont Goldcorp Corporation (NEM) at 41.75$ since 09. January 2020. NO SL!! Obvious imminent uptarget at 46.40$. Possible June/July 2020 uptarget at 53.00$.
Short Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) at 22.42$ since 11. June 2019. NO Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm downtarget is 21.59$. Possible downtarget at 20.77$.
Short iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) at 13.87$ since 03. May 2019. NO Stop-Loss (SL)!! First downtarget at 13.53$ as Shortterm downtarget at 13.41$ are worked off. Possible 2019 main downtarget at 12.92$.
Long NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) at 185.00$ since 25. April 2019. Shortterm uptarget at 222.00$ is worked off. 2020 uptarget at 300$. Stop-Loss (SL) at 232.00$.
Long iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) at 26.90$ since 18. March 2019. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget is 40$. Shortterm uptarget is 30.90$.
Long Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) at 25.55$ since 13. February 2019. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget is 32.00$.
Short Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) at 71.75$ since 17. January 2019. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Main downtarget is 63.00$.
Long Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) at 85.50$ since 16. November 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 93.60$ is worked off. 2020 uptarget at 160$.
Long QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) at 70.30$ since 12. September 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 82.00$ is worked off. Main uptarget stays at 99.00$.
Long Vocera Communications, Inc. (VCRA) at 27.75$ since 13. June 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 32.23$ is worked off. 2018 uptarget at 35.70$ is worked off!
Long Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) at 52.00$ since 28. March 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget at 60.00$!
Long SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) at 87.20$ since 04. January 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! First uptarget at 93.50$ is worked off. 2018 main uptarget at 100.00$ is worked off!
Long iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN (JJNTF) at 14.87$ since 09. November 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 16.25$ is worked off. Main uptarget remains 20.00$.
Long Rambus Inc. (RMBS) at 14.35$ since 25. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget at 17.00$.
Long Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) at 41.10$ since 09. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 46.00$ is reached.
Long Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG) at 11.00$ since 27. February 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget at 14.00$.
Long Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG) at 11.50$ since 10. February 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! 2020 uptarget at 14.00$.
Long Freeport McMoRan Inc. (FCX) at 14.30$ since 15. December 2016.
No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm uptarget at 16.43$ is worked off. Main
uptargets at 22.00$/24.00$.
Long Torex Gold Inc. (TXG.TO) at 32.80 CAD$ since 09. September 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL)! Shortterm uptarget at 39.00 CAD$.
Long McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) at 4.60$ since 19. August 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL)! Shortterm uptarget at 5.50$. Midterm uptarget is 6.00$. Main target is 7.40$.
Long Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd. (SBGL) at 10.35$ since 05. February 2020. Stop-Loss (SL) at 9.30$. Midterm uptarget at 13.80$.
Long Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) at 9.00$ since 23. January 2020. Stop-Loss (SL) at 7.90$. First uptarget at 12.75$. Midterm uptarget is 17.00$.
Long JD.com, Inc. (JD) at 23.19$ since 11. January 2019. Stop-Loss (SL) at 21.40$. Shortterm uptarget at 30.00$ is worked off.
Long eBay Inc. (EBAY) at 41.00$ since 09. February 2018. No Stop-Loss (SL)!!
Long Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) at 60.00$ since 16. October 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget is 66.90$. Main target at 77.00$.
Long Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) at 8.10$ since 08. September 2017. No Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget at 11.05$. Main uptarget at 12.00$.
Short S&P 500 Index at 1880 since 14. January 2016. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm downtarget at 1740.
Long Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) at 43.09$ since 09. July 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Longterm Buy-Target is 60.50$.
Long GLOBAL X Silver MINERS ETF (SIL) at 13.79$ since 18. March 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm target at 15.48$. Main targets 17.42$ and 20.00$.
Short S&P 500 Index at 1820 since 11. February 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm downtarget at 1740.
Markets, Money Management and Trade Size
I will merely analyze the market. There are so many instruments in the world outside our GUNNNER24 Traders use to trade, and hundreds of popular ones among them, often depending on a trader’s time horizons... I don’t consider me able to adjust the market recommendations to all the popular ETFs, different CFD or futures contracts. All I’ll analyze is pure market action - the index, stock or most current contract and forex!
The trade size you should use depends.
A) On your account size:
I usually follow the rule of thumb which says, never bet more than 1% of your account size for each trade. So I avoid overtrading...
Let’s say you have got a 30.000US$ account granting you a nominal buying power of 300.000US$ up to 500.000US$ and even more, depending on your broker and instrument. In that case your trade size shouldn’t be more than 3.000US$-5.000US$ taking into account your buying power.
Another - more conservative - method is taking into account the available margin. Usually, 30.000US$ account value equals 30.000US$ available for margin trading. So the trade size is 300US$ taking into account the margin.
Within Trade of the Day I ask you not to bet more than this 1% per any trade.
The other point to consider for determining the trade size is:
B) if your trading style is rather active, supposing you regularly have 30-50 open trades, just as I have - CFD/ETF, here some stocks, there a future contract. So I often trade risky somehow, but I split the money/bets. Even in such a nice trend as the stocks are showing currently, I never ever trade too risky. I never load the boat with 70% let 90% of my account size. 50% is the maximum.
I trade for my living and for my kids and wife as well. A regular income is important. The big-bang bet isn’t! The market would win such a big-bang bet for sure!!
When I have a lot of open trades, maybe up to this 50% of my account size/available margin I avoid trading more. So if you are an active trader having a lot of trades running at rev limiter (50% account size) please avoid trading even though we/I give you some fresh recommendations, because this would rise YOUR risk!... During the test phase that happened frequently. We had 3-5 open trades sometimes and that’s why it’s elementary important that we/you have to use tight SL. Order management is absolutely crucial for Trade of the Day.
You’ll have to place really each and every order accordingly, you know. Forgetting only one time the SL would make this trade getting worse and worse…
Based on the George Douglas Taylor Trading Technique that I’ve been studied and originally traded for years transferring it onto the modern markets by constant observation a five day pattern of the single days of the week has resulted.
The crux is not so much that the entire week has to work perfectly. Perhaps it does just at a 50% because the day patterns may shift by one or two days. In the strong upwards trends sometimes you see 4 buy days and only 1 sell day. It’s important to recognize that the day proceeds ideally-typically and to trade accordingly.
My personal trading style has always been the contrary to that of the crowds because the crowds always loose. Especially in gold and silver trading I like to buy the corrections Monday to Wednesday and on Friday if the day patterns correspond with some important GUNNER24 Signals.
I use to go short intraday just on Thursday when the week high is sold off AND provided that the corresponding GUNNER24 Setups signal so covering the shorts when the cycle is resumed.
The ideal five day pattern in an upwards trend – precious metals and US stock market – Do use those patterns for your intraday and swing activities!
Monday: Buy day. Strong up-day. Low established first. It often ends at the day high. Unthinkingly you may buy all the intraday corrections because the week high comes later in the course of the week.
Tuesday: Buy day. Weaker up-day. A higher high is produced. As early as now the crowds ponder whether the prices mightn’t run too high partially going short already. For me it’s the day when I can cover my Friday and Monday longs. In intraday I try to go long in case of corrections until the Comex opening.
Wednesday: Sell day. Actually the day for covering the longs and for the first short entry. It’s got some different forms. It closes at the same level as it had opened. Frequently at first the high is established because more and more traders short the market. Here the longs fight against the shorts. You recognize that if many teeth, many nicks, many spike candles are to be seen in the chart. On Wednesday I use to do nothing. Only at a 20 to 30% the shorter hearts are pleased because during the whole day there’s only sell-off.
Thursday: The classical sell short day. Because the Wednesdays often close as they had opened the market participants have to cover their shorts because in the beginning the market runs quickly upwards…! And frequently they turn their positions into the high direction being caught on the wrong trail again. Then the market often lays down a beautiful sell-off. In the evening mostly a strong rally follows. That’s where we cover the shorts.
Friday: Classical buy day in the upwards trend. It’s nothing for weak hands. Here’s where you buy the positions near the Thursday lows which you cover again next Tuesday/Wednesday. If you discover that the prices have steadied or even are rising a little bit by closing the five day cycle should continue in the following week.
In the charts we work with the following symbols: