Dear GUNNER24 Traders,

 

Buy Grayscale Bitcoin Trust - GBTC - at 40.00

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a private, open-ended trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. It enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin without the challenge of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoins. The Trust's sponsor is Grayscale Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. The Trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

We went GBTC-long at 13.95$ on October 26, 2020 and now try to add another GBTC-long position cause GUNNER24 Method offers that the final highs of this bitcoin rally cycle are still pending.

Here is the weekly chart of the Bitcoin continuous futures contract (BTC #), where we are allowed to anchor a classic 13 Fib number candle GUNNER24 Up at the low of 2020:

 

This setup is the only valid one I have on weekly base and even this only valid one is only mildly confirmed. However, such a relative unconfirmed situation is not uncommon in the highly emotional markets and trends. As as always, I have highlighted the most important confirmations that the setup was respected in the past and that the scaling should fit properly.

Well, I think it has to rally further into higher highs because after past week candle closed above the main resistance uptarget of the 5th double arc, thus firing another weekly buy signal & this week low 100% accurately and successfully tested back upper line of 4th, natural important backtest magnet, and price now strongly back at 5th double arc allows or better signals that important pullback low is in at this week low and another push higher has been started at this week low. As a consequence of this the rally should continue although – of course – the price quotes close to upper end of setup regarding price. The end of setup together with the 5th always represents a main uptarget resistance where the entire trend is allowed to top and turn.

This below monthly classic 8 Fib number BTC # up setup on monthly base now signals that the rally next and soon could hit and work off the lower line of 4th double arc! The setup starts measuring to the upside at # 1 // Alltime-low. The lower line of 4th runs at about 46000$ for this month candle and the next due candles:

 

The very last indirect confirmation that this setup could deliver a nice and accurate forecast is send at final low of the December 2020 candle what was a 100% accurate backtest of the important 2*1 Support Angle from above. By this low we have confirmation that the 2*1 should continue to radiate lifetime-base support energy in the coming future, coming years and at a next test. Otherwise, the setup, and thus also we, have one main problem, namely that since the first square line buy signal, that was triggered by the Nov20 opening auction, none of the double arcs or individual double arc lines the price has passed since have been confirmed in any way.

As already mentioned above such exaggerated bull behaviour is often seen on the emotional FOMO markets. Especially in extremely brutal cycles. And bitcoin, well, is now caught in an unusual strong rally cycle which likely has to continue for a little bit longer, because:

A) The price actually quotes, and above all, now holds well above the monthly 3rd double arc and B) just fired another weekly buy candle and thus C) by this the monthly lower line of 4th double arc was activated to become the next nearest important GUNNER24 Upward target on the monthly chart.

So actually the setup recommends that BTC # has to rally further into lower line of 4th with a probability of about 70% or so. And well, when a market is in a strong rally, activated upside targets are usually always worked off quite quickly.

==> bitcoin could hit a 46000$ in further course of January 2021 and/or February 2021.

Of course it might be the outcome that current rally cycle has to trade much higher as "only" a 46000$ and forecasted 4th double arc hit, but somehow I have the feeling the price might be capped there for longer. Hmm...., in any case the now activated round 50000$ W.D. Gann upmagnet number should be hit and tested in further course of 2021!

Now let`s focus on GBTC and to its current rally status/behavior. Where we could possibly buy a dip for a second long position...:

 

For this market I have a nice-valid weekly up starting at # 1 // final low of October 2020.

Blue Arc was confirmed & stonger arc resistance rail as it offered accurate week high resistance at # 9-top & # 10-top & # 11-top. After a combined Blue Arc & first square line buy signal the activated uptarget of 1st double arc was worked off rapidly and this 1st double arc was tested resistance, followed to become tested support at red-oval.

This past week candle literally blew natural resistance area of 2nd double arc and made current alltime-high at 48.65$.

With a 99.9% probability this week candle prints the second consecutive week close above the 2nd double arc, officially activating that the rally cycle at least should continue into fresh activated lower line of the 3rd double arc uptarget what for the next due week candles resides at the 52$ surroundings.

Quite wide, but normally quite important and therefore strong future main GBTC support is the entire area of the 2nd double arc, what extends for the next weeks at 40.50$ down to a 37$ or so.

 

Last but not least I have a good looking daily up what is textbook to the 21 Fib number oriented one. It starts measuring to the upside at important Nov20 # 1 // 17.60$ spike low. Also in this case the Blue Arc became often-confirmed, sharp daily high resistance rail. Also the first square line was respected by the price (dark-green arrow). Additionally 1st is confirmed important magnet. First it was daily resistance, then it morphed to successfully tested future daily support area as yesterday candle skipped the 1st uber-bullish to the upside.

Daily signal state is as follows:

GBTC made alltime-high above the 1st and now trades back above this 1st important daily stuff. All in all we are able to count 4 daily closings above the 1st, therefore the rally should continue at least into activated lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget. However, maybe the fast test and work off of upper line of 2nd is a is a necessity, because towards the end of January/beginning of February it also runs at the 52$ surroundings.

And so we have identified a combined weekly and daily GBTC uptarget magnet, that is at 52.00$.

==> Shortterm and possible major uptarget at 52.00$!

Please further recognize that the future 1st double arc environment - now usually again a stronger future support on the daily chart - for the next few days starts at a 40.50$ (upper line of 1st) and extends down to about a 38.50$ (lower line of 1st).

ABOVE we have identified stronger future weekly support is starting at 40.50$ down to a 37$ or so. To sum the different time-frame supports up:

40.50$ down to a 38.50$ is combined daily and weekly GBTC support magnet for the coming days and I recommend to try a long entry at the round 40.00$ W.D. Gann support number for the 52.00$ uptarget:

==> Please buy GBTC at 40.00$ until end of next week, 01/22/2021.

==> Shortterm uptarget and possible main uptarget is at 52.00$!

==> At first stage we skip the SL, it will be mailed if necessary!

GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 01/15/2020:

Market: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

Orders: Buy-Limit at 40.00. NO Stop-Loss (SL)!! Shortterm uptarget and possible main uptarget at 52.00. Buy-Limit order valid till 01/22/2021.

 

Meanwhile...

 

... the S&P 500 e-mini has formed a Rounded Top on the 4 hour chart, what could pull down the market into maybe a 3740 to 3715 pts towards next Monday to Tuesday, before the next daily upswing should/could start somewhere at the 50% to 61.8% Fib retracement support levels.

Eduard

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I will merely analyze the market. There are so many instruments in the world outside our GUNNNER24 Traders use to trade, and hundreds of popular ones among them, often depending on a trader’s time horizons... I don’t consider me able to adjust the market recommendations to all the popular ETFs, different CFD or futures contracts. All I’ll analyze is pure market action - the index, stock or most current contract and forex!

 

The trade size you should use depends.

 

A) On your account size:

 

I usually follow the rule of thumb which says, never bet more than 1% of your account size for each trade. So I avoid overtrading...

Let’s say you have got a 30.000US$ account granting you a nominal buying power of 300.000US$ up to 500.000US$ and even more, depending on your broker and instrument. In that case your trade size shouldn’t be more than 3.000US$-5.000US$ taking into account your buying power.

 

Another - more conservative - method is taking into account the available margin. Usually, 30.000US$ account value equals 30.000US$ available for margin trading. So the trade size is 300US$ taking into account the margin.

 

Within Trade of the Day I ask you not to bet more than this 1% per any trade.

 

The other point to consider for determining the trade size is:

 

B) if your trading style is rather active, supposing you regularly have 30-50 open trades, just as I have - CFD/ETF, here some stocks, there a future contract. So I often trade risky somehow, but I split the money/bets. Even in such a nice trend as the stocks are showing currently, I never ever trade too risky. I never load the boat with 70% let 90% of my account size. 50% is the maximum.

 

I trade for my living and for my kids and wife as well. A regular income is important. The big-bang bet isn’t! The market would win such a big-bang bet for sure!! 

 

When I have a lot of open trades, maybe up to this 50% of my account size/available margin I avoid trading more. So if you are an active trader having a lot of trades running at rev limiter (50% account size) please avoid trading even though we/I give you some fresh recommendations, because this would rise YOUR risk!... During the test phase that happened frequently. We had 3-5 open trades sometimes and that’s why it’s elementary important that we/you have to use tight SL. Order management is absolutely crucial for Trade of the Day.

 

You’ll have to place really each and every order accordingly, you know. Forgetting only one time the SL would make this trade getting worse and worse…

 

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Based on the George Douglas Taylor Trading Technique that I’ve been studied and originally traded for years transferring it onto the modern markets by constant observation a five day pattern of the single days of the week has resulted.

 

The crux is not so much that the entire week has to work perfectly. Perhaps it does just at a 50% because the day patterns may shift by one or two days. In the strong upwards trends sometimes you see 4 buy days and only 1 sell day. It’s important to recognize that the day proceeds ideally-typically and to trade accordingly.

My personal trading style has always been the contrary to that of the crowds because the crowds always loose. Especially in gold and silver trading I like to buy the corrections Monday to Wednesday and on Friday if the day patterns correspond with some important GUNNER24 Signals.

I use to go short intraday just on Thursday when the week high is sold off AND provided that the corresponding GUNNER24 Setups signal so covering the shorts when the cycle is resumed.

The ideal five day pattern in an upwards trend – precious metals and US stock market – Do use those patterns for your intraday and swing activities!

 

 

Monday: Buy day. Strong up-day. Low established first. It often ends at the day high. Unthinkingly you may buy all the intraday corrections because the week high comes later in the course of the week.

Tuesday: Buy day. Weaker up-day. A higher high is produced. As early as now the crowds ponder whether the prices mightn’t run too high partially going short already. For me it’s the day when I can cover my Friday and Monday longs. In intraday I try to go long in case of corrections until the Comex opening.

Wednesday: Sell day. Actually the day for covering the longs and for the first short entry. It’s got some different forms. It closes at the same level as it had opened. Frequently at first the high is established because more and more traders short the market. Here the longs fight against the shorts. You recognize that if many teeth, many nicks, many spike candles are to be seen in the chart. On Wednesday I use to do nothing. Only at a 20 to 30% the shorter hearts are pleased because during the whole day there’s only sell-off.

Thursday: The classical sell short day. Because the Wednesdays often close as they had opened the market participants have to cover their shorts because in the beginning the market runs quickly upwards…! And frequently they turn their positions into the high direction being caught on the wrong trail again. Then the market often lays down a beautiful sell-off. In the evening mostly a strong rally follows. That’s where we cover the shorts.

Friday: Classical buy day in the upwards trend. It’s nothing for weak hands. Here’s where you buy the positions near the Thursday lows which you cover again next Tuesday/Wednesday. If you discover that the prices have steadied or even are rising a little bit by closing the five day cycle should continue in the following week.

 

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