Counter trend measurement by the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method
For us traders and investors, the long term trends are the true instruments for the constant growth of our accounts. However, by the influence of our own uncertainty, misinterpretations, faulty indicator signals, losses or the media, in day and swing trading we use to loose our eye for the important things and for the real trend of a market too rapidly. In addition, the majority of the investors don't have the techniques to recognize the true trend never mind to categorize the moves within a main trend and to join trading them successfully.
Using the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method, I'd like to show you in this issue today how to identify the real trend of a market using but 7 minutes of analysis input and teach you how to evaluate that trend chronologically in order to internalize thus the schedule of that market for the next months. Using the future price and time targets, then you will be able to make one or the other US$ by respecting the necessary trading rules!
Many, many advisors, media, analysts, wavers, brokers and traders emotionally grab the allegedly strengthened US$ talking about a change in trend etc... Certainly you have realized the hype of the last weeks.
Well, the pair USD/JPY has been in a downtrend for almost 13 years. The series of the lower swing highs and the lower swing lows is marked orange in the monthly chart.
The whole market barking is triggered off now by a professedly pretty strong reversal candle (big red 1) and the existing 1-2-3 low (green numbers). But the trend is undoubtedly down, and after a counter trend reaction we have to assume that the main trend is resumed.
The question we have to ask ourselves now is how long and how far the counter trend is going to go and whether it is worth picking up the counter trend and to invest and increase thus our asset long-term or would we have to take into account some losses by our possible investment. To make the correct decision we will analyze the pair with the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method.
In the chart, the original initial up impulse from the year 1995 is marked with the blue numbers 1-8. Applying the 8 Candle Circle GUNNER24 Up Setup we see that the high A occurs exactly at the important time line, precisely at the main target. But in case of the highs C and E, the price is shooting a little bit over the targets. The low D is located exactly on the important time line and the low F is fitting in price because it meets a diagonal of the square but does not make sense in time. The low of November, 2009 is hanging likewise empty in time and space.
To harmonize the discrepancies in price and time we have to refine the forecast with the GUNNER24 Elliptical Setup now. Thus, we will be able to predict the real schedule of the pair in the further course.
In the full version of the GUNNER24 Forecasting Charting Software we start the elliptical setup with this symbol .
We pull the emerging vector a little bit to the right and then downwards. In the chart, the important highs A and C are not lying exactly on the important time lines but for us, it is more important to forecast the price. That is why in case of the elliptical setup it is important to make the last important incidents correspond with price and time.
On the one hand, we are successful at the high E (meeting the important time line), at the low F (the end of the double arc influence) and the last two candles (support by the square diagonal).
We can see the last two candles rebound from the diagonal of the recently passed square (orange marks). Thus we are supplied the current support diagonal. Furthermore we see that the price is in the gray acceleration zone, not going to meet the resistance zone before the upper diagonal of the recently passed square. That is where we deduce the first important target of this counter trend from: 96.3.
Since normally the counter trends always last 3-5 candles the time factor is rather obvious, as well. December is the first candle, February the third candle, May the fifth candle. Additional buys in case of short term retracements can be carried out at the support diagonal.
If we invest the last 2 minutes to check the actual Monthly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup we realize that the pair with the November and the December candle rebounds exactly at the main target (orange marks). Thus, not only a counter trend rally might start lasting 3-5 months but a counter trend rally is definitely forming with a 70 percent of probability that in terms of duration might perform the same way as the counter trend rallies have done which started at lows B and D (2-3 years).
The price targets of the just beginning counter movement are the superordinate diagonals of the recently passed square. The higher targets are on the one hand the 1*2 Gann Angle and the upper horizontal of the recently passed square. Accordingly, we close all the current shorts switching to long. SL is the December low at 86.1515. The new GUNNER24 Up Setup starts at the December low.