Cable has been under pressure over the last months from both a strong US dollar and a weak British pound. From an early-June high of 1.4250, GBPUSD currency pair has been stuck in a well-defined Bull Flag downtrend with lower highs and lower lows dominating price action all the way down to 1.3160 what represents this month low and is current 6-month downtrend low.
GBPUSD currently trades around 1.3240 and is trying to build a base just above its recent multi-month low. After the Bank of England was the first to move among major central banks in raising borrowing costs, this may prove successful and could send the GBPUSD pair higher towards a short-term target zone of 1.3650 or so.
Here is the quite positive looking chart situation of the pair, from which the possible uptarget zone of 1.3650 can be derived:
The rally from # 1 // 2020 coronivarus panic low finally topped after 64 week candles into final high of 2021.
Afterwards a perfect looking and so far also perfect working weekly Bull Flag - an usually very bullish consolidation formation - formed. The red Bull Flag resistance is 1 times, maybe 2 times tested falling week highs rail. The last trading week was the 3rd push lower into almost perfect working green Bull Flag support. Three pushes lower formations into then holding main supports often signal an intermediate bear extreme has arrived or is due to arrive very, very soon.
For cable, as for thousands of other markets, the Omicron low resp. the Omicron panic lows could form a crucial higher low in a continuing bull market cycle, because the Omicron panic event occured after 89 to 90 candles on the weekly charts & during the 21st candle on the monthly charts.
For cable in particular, we count that the usually bullish third push lower series into Bull Flag support rail happened in the course of the 90th (90 - 1 = 89-Fib number) week candle of the bull market.
==> Although the weekly momentum does not yet indicate a sustainable turnaround, the chart technical situation has now turned positive, as it may well be that at last week's low, an 89-weeks/21-months time event occured right at the main support (price factor), which maybe finally turned the short- and medium-term trends from short to long.
This monthly 6/9 Candles up starting at # 1 // last bear market low of March 2020 could depict the general bull market situation for cable best:
The final highs of bull market months # 6 and # 9 (= 9-1=8 Fib number) natually & automatically define the Blue Arc rail. This measurement automatically delivers the lower line of 1st natural is important bull market uptarget.
Precisely there the pair set the negative monthly Double Top of 2021 and so far bull market top.
==> The natural bull market main resistance of the monthly lower line of 1st double arc triggered the 6-month Bull Flag consolidation.
Please look very carefully, that both, the # 20-November 2021 low & this month # 21-December low made their individual bear extremes with an 100% accuracy at Blue Arc bull market support from above.
November and December lows have tested natural main support energy, the Blue Arc radiates automatically. Moreover, the so far December 2021 low also tested the natural "Bull Market Angle" to the T from above and therefore it is a huge bull chance that the December 2021 low was made at a combined GUNNER24 Support Magnet on monthly base, and/or even successfully tested a combined GUNNER24 Support Magnet on yearly base!
The occurrence of all these bullish signs, has further developed the chart situation very positively for GBPUSD Forex pair, which with some probability has reached its next important higher bull market low at 1.3160 in the course of bull market week # 90!
To perhaps participate from a new short- and medium-term uptrend that may already be underway and would likely retest the confirmed Bull Flag resistance at 1.36 or so, it is probably safest at this time to let us stop in a GBPUSD long position just above a future key resistance rail.
==> British pound gathered strength on Thursday after the Bank of England decided to hike its policy rate by 15 basis points and closed at 1.3320 what meant the highest day close since the low of December. Allowing yourself to be stopped in a long position at this price over the coming trading week looks very promising as the 1.36 Bull Flag-limiter could then be reached within a few weeks.
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I wish you a blessed peaceful Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Eduard Altmann