As it is the case, the most recently identified necessary year-end uptargets for the S&P 500 have been calculated far too conservatively, as the year-end target recommendations by the weekly chart and the valid weekly GUNNER24 Setup towards the end of October have already been reached and finally being attacked with vigor:
Taken from: S&P 500: Ready to rock – Ready to roll
Target range for the expected year-end close was calculated for the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract between 3070 und 3120.
As is well known, the US stock markets have been booming since the Christmas Eve of 2018. They’re accelerating more and more now into the 1-year-cyle highs. With the beginning of October additionally the EU stock markets shifted up as many as two gears now being in line with the US indexes in the tough rally mode. The latter makes the important Western equity indexes conjure a flawless & strong rally year onto the trading floor, with lows at the beginning and the highs at the end of the trading year.
These high closings of the markets in 2019 lead inevitably to the bullish continuation into 2020. With newly higher alltime-highs for the beginning of 2020. The current exaggeration phase is supposed to endure at least till the end of January 2020!! Please stay long: S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Dow Jones, US small and mid caps, DAX & EUROSTOXX 50.
After the early 2020 highs, I reckon with a 2-3 month pullback cycle to ensue in the bull market.
With today`s attempt to nail the final goal of the 2019 rally year, as well as the upcoming next important intermediate bull market high or the 1-year-cycle high in terms of price and time today we analyze the now meaningful monthly chart of the S&P 500 e-mini continuous futures contract (ES #).
==> Since in the ES #, the 3070-3120 main target was mercilessly overshot in the course of past two weeks – Friday close is at 3146.5 – technically only the 3230 magnet comes into question as the next higher target area for the awaited final 2019 highs:
Above, I display for you the extremely market-influencing Low/High (24 month candles) up setup in the monthly time frame that is is applied at the absolute year 2016 Low of the ES # measuring the initial up impulse into through the first important alltime-high of 2018 or a 2-year-cycle high.
The current monthly bull stampede into the presumed 1-year-cycle high, beginning on Christmas 2018 = # 1 // 2019 Rally Year, supposedly topping out by the end of January/early February 2020 – starts exactly at fat orange-dotted highlighted 2018 Xmas Low ITL (time) and spiked at the middle of first GUNNER24 Square (-support) according price.
==> The relative precise hit of the middle of first GUNNER24 Square price-time magnet was a mighty trigger for the current bull thrust or the 2019 rally year in whose course and likely towards the closing of the current # 13-Fibonacci month December 2019 candle the prior activated lower line of 1st double arc arc = yearly GUNNER24 Main Uptarget Resistance will be hit.
Think, - because the very confirmed = uber important major upmagnet of the relatively steep running ATH Upmagnet Resistance is intersecting yearly upmagnet of lower line of 1st double arc for underway # 13-December 2019 candle this magnet at 3230 could be the price this year 2019 has to reach. 3230 is a combined price and time upmagnet for the year 2019, and well, there around might the final high of this year be printed... according time this could finally happen on 24th of December!
==> Since in the course of last 2 weeks the actually strong 3070-3120 pts resistance area, at same time major 2019 rally year uptarget area, was finally run down, once more an energy thrust was released that
A) should lead to the fact/obvious that the final high of entire 2019 is expected to be printed in course of # 13-December 2019 and this should lead
B) to some bullish follow through and a bullish continuation into 2020. With 90% odd newly higher alltime-highs for the beginning of 2020. The current exaggeration phase is supposed to endure at least till the end of January 2020!! because
C) January 2020 would be or likely will be the 14th month candle of the bull trend that started at # 1-December 2018 Low and this is 14-1 = 13 Fibonacci number, another next important turn number:
And for this # 14-January 2020 candle the for now all in all 9 to 10 times attracting ATH Upmagnet Resistance is intersecting the upper line of 1st double arc within above at # 1 //2019 Rally Year low applied monthly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up exactly at 3259 pts.
And this is why this additionally very attractive bull market upmagnet – = combined CENTURY-DECADE-YEARLY-MONTHY stuff – might be the responsible threshold for printing the next intermediate bull market high, perhaps due towards end of January 2020.
Cause this run is late in time and the run was unusual strong and now also appears to be climatic in the monthly chart the for # 14-January 2020 near 3259 pts projected 1-year-cycle high might be violated to the upside.
Means 3259 might be overshooted by the final 1-year-cycle high (a 10 to 20 pts violation would be a typical event), resp. the final 1-year-cycle high might arrive little bit later then late-January, so perhaps is due for early-# 15-February 2020.
Once the final 1-year-cycle high is found we should expect just weaker correction on monthly view. Usually the bull then should pause for 2 or 3 month candles and normally should deliver the classic backtest of the Big Round 3000 what has now morphed to a first support horizontal on yearly base.
Perhaps even the first square line support above - which runs for ever at about 2960 pts. - will be tested back at a # 16-March 2020 low.
The very worst case I foresee is a 2900 pts backtest or so to shake the stock market bulls really off before the expected final run of this bull market should rally into about 3550 pts at above lower line of 2nd uptarget what are expected to be tested/hit/finally worked off sometimes September to October 2020. So, the since 2009 running bull market should finally top before the re-election of Trump!