The AUDUSD Forex pair should have found its final year low in course of October and likely has started a 5 to 8 months lasting countertrend within an overriding multi-year bear market.
Pair at October lows even might have found a next higher low in the major important DECADE time frame!!
That offers us now a rather lucrative and at the same time rather low-risk trading opportunity cause when an uptrend starts his ascent mostly is full of energy and the start of a new bull cycle on monthly base is by far the easiest part in our trading business.
The really important turns of this pair are always based exactly on the Fibonacci numbers.
The bull market from the final low of 2008 to the received DECADE HIGH of 2011 runs for 34 month candles.
The persistence bear market which started at 2011 DECADE HIGH (green 34 / red 1 below) bottomed precisely after 55 month candles into 2016 Low.
The latest multi-month countertrend that started at the final 2016 Low (blue 1 below) finally topped after a 21 month lasting Fib numbers run into final high of entire 2017 = blue 21 below:
Final 2017 High or orange 1 marks the starting point of currently running bear market downleg which was in its eleventh month when I last looked at the pair on 07/29/2018.
Then market was expected to continue its decline guided by then steeper and steeper downwards pointing GUNNER24 Upper Line of 1st double arc DECADE RESISTANCE at least for 2 additional month candles, just for likely printing a next important monthly or yearly low respective trend change signal sometimes in course of orange # 13, the next projected Fib turn signal of September 2018.
Another approach sniffing the next upcoming important cycle low was that the upper line of 1st double arc could continue to force the market to the downside until that nicely confirmed and important = very strong DECADE RESISTANCE arc expires according the time factor. Cause upper line of 1st DECADE RESISTANCE arc does not cut the time axis until November 2018, the next necessary cycle extreme could have printed in course of the current month.
With the prospect of achieving a potentially crucial important low on yearly base, yes, even a next important low in the DECADE TIME FRAME LOW we always have to accept a fluctuation margin of one time unit more or less, for such potential MAJOR extreme...
==> To briefly summarize the last analysis of 07/29/2018, the year's low, resp. the next bear market low, and likely also the next important DECADE LOW was expected to arrive sometimes in the course of September to December 2018. Whereby at least (according to time and price) a minimum 0.72 price target had to be reached during the course of # 13-September 2018.
# 13-September 2018 low came in at 0.7085. The likely final bear market low/this year low/important low on DECADE BASE arrived at # 14-October low, there at 0.7021 a sustainable 5 to 8 months lasting monthly uptrend would actually have started.
Now let`s take a look at the current monthly chart and the pair in relation the all-important 19 Candle GUNNER24 Up which starts measuring at # 1 // 2008 Bear Market Low:
The Green 34 / red 1 year 2011 DECADE TOP is influenced by natural 1st double arc resistance upmagnet out of very important # 1 // 2009 Low. Space between lower line of 1st double arc and upper line of 1st double arc is DECADE RESISTANCE area! 1st double arc environment is a downward sloping DECADE RESISTANCE area. Where all in all, the final highs of 2012, 2013 and 2018 were marked as well.
1st double arc DECADE RESISTANCE recently started to have a strong resistance impact at final 2018 High. And well, since orange 1-2018 Highs the overall declining upper line of 1st exercised enormous downward pressure on the market.
Until, yes, until the red # 14-October low. Then and there time has met price according the W.D. Gann rules cause AUDUSD price A) found double support magnet in the higher time frames. # 14-October lows have tested 2008 Support Angle and upper line of 1st from above. Both 2008 Support Angle as the upper line of 1st double arc are not only monthly rails or magnets but also magnets on DECADE BASE.
And since current bear market count shows B) 14 - 1 is 13 Fib number, additionally the time factor signals important bearish extreme likely has arrived at # 14-October 2018 low.
An at least intermediate cycle low at # 14-October extreme is fully confirmed by the past 6 week developments! At least that`s my impression:
Since very first trading day of November candle the pair is pushing higher and with just one trading week to go until November close will be finally sealed it`s allowed to expect that pair wants to deliver a "green" November candle. And this is a major prove that the heavy downwards pulling upper line of 1st magnet has stopped working and the price is allowed to go higher the coming months.
See, that November candle body is still braked by the highlighted 2008 Resistance Angle! So, market actually is stopped by a natural DECADE RESISTANCE Gann Angle. 2008 Resistance Angle is at 0.7310 for the month... and a November 2018 closing above that 2008 Resistance Angle = 0.7310 will be major monthly buy signal and final confirmation that # 14-October 2018 low was the starting price of a new multi-monthly countertrend cycle.
IF November 2018 will be able to close above the recent readings, at a 0.7230 or so and higher of course, pair would have fired a bullish reversal candle on monthly closing base. This would be the first bullish signal on monthly base in course of entire 2018!!!
Well, GUNNER24 Method signals that a next 5 to 8 monthly lasting countertrend has begun cause double support on DECADE base together with time triggered a new cycle. I have quite natural uptarget for the 5 to 8 monthly candles lasting countertrend at 0.7732.
At 0.7732 is middle of passed square according price, thus most obvious important upmagnet resistance above. From 2016 to 2017 that price resistance horizontal was tested all in all 9 times at individual month highs.
Cause the 0.7732 GUNNER24 Resistance Upmagnet horizontal is so nicely and so sharp confirmed, it`s most attracting magnet for any monthly countertrend cycle!
==> AUDUSD has activated the backtest of 0.7732, which with a 75% probability will be worked off sometimes in course of 2019.
==> AUDUSD 2019 main target is at 0.7732!
See, that 0.7732 is a natural magnet out of important bear market low of the year 2008. 0.7732 price is in confirmed direct and important relation to one of the most important turns of the CENTURY. Market in the past has respected that horizontal, used it for signaling or topping on monthly base etc. 0.7732 is important magnet on monthly base, on yearly base and in the DECADE time frame.
Now, when we switch to the weekly chart and start to pull up a regular GUNNER24 Up Setup at # 14-October low, we realize something amazing:
The very lowest price of the upper line of 2nd double arc within above measured 5 Candle up is also precisely at 0.7732.
Means an important natural bullish extension of the first 5 week initial impulse is directly linked to a confirmed important price in the monthly & yearly & DECADE charts. This mathematical connection points to a very important bearish extreme made at October 2018 low.
And offers that 0.7732 will be reached, tested and worked off within newly started upcycle cause that price is sharp defined combined weekly, monthly, yearly and DECADE GUNNER24 Upmagnet!
The first up impulse out of # 1 // 70.21 Year Low is textbook like according the time factor ==> "classic" 5 weeks up. Such textbook start of a new upleg hints to the outcome that the double arcs of the setup above will be worked off in trend direction. And the weekly trend with +90% likelihood is now up again!
Past week candle retraced the initial up impulse and we should buy at middle of first square support which is at 0.7163. That nearest first weekly support is in nice harmony to the 0.7160 to 0.7145 re-conquered horizontal threshold where important lows of 2016 found strong support. Or, the tight 0.7163 to 0.7145 area is now combined future weekly and yearly horizontal support and perhaps strongest support into year end!
0.7163 could be tested within next 2 trading weeks! A classic backtest of 0.7163 to 0.7145 combined weekly and yearly support horizontal shouldn`t surprise a bull...
Hmm, hmm, backtest of 0.7163-0.7145 combined weekly and yearly support should trigger another weekly upleg which usually should - at least - reach and test 1st double arc uptarget. 1st work off could happen at about 0.7450 towards the end of 2018 into perhaps very early-January 2019. Then big upmagnet resistance/backtest target of 2018 1*1 Resistance Angle is intersecting the 1st double arc upmagnet at 0.7450!
Important Announcement - My Annual Vacation
Together with my wife and a few friends, I'm off to Africa for my annual vacation. We grant ourselves after many years again something really amazing. Lots of nature, lodges, safaris etc. That's why the next issue of the GUNNER24 Forecasts will not be published until shortly before Christmas, on SATURDAY! the 22nd of December.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann