The very last Crude Oil buy signal in the monthly time frame was sent at final June 2017 low. Already very shortly after this important bull market turn we had to assume that the oil has to test back its determining year 2017 resistance within a few weeks.
==> On 06-25-2017, the US Crude Oil was expected to advance further and to test back the Blue Arc resistance upmagnet within still completely dominating monthly 12/13/14/15 Candle up and hit the falling yearly Blue Arc threshold at 51$ in course of August 2017The very last Crude Oil buy signal in the monthly time frame was sent at final June 2017 low. Already very shortly after this important bull market turn we had to assume that the oil has to test back its determining year 2017 resistance within a few weeks.
==> On 06-25-2017, the US Crude Oil was expected to advance further and to test back the Blue Arc resistance upmagnet within still completely dominating monthly 12/13/14/15 Candle up and hit the falling yearly Blue Arc threshold at 51$ in course of August 2017:
At bull market month # 17-June 2017 low the 1*1 Bull Market Angle out of final 2016 Bear Market Low was worked off to the T from above, thus the technically very strongest and very most important bull market support from the # 1 // 2016 Bear Market Low has been tested for the very first time. And because A) these 1*1 Gann Angles are always hard to break with the first tests from above and B) as a rule usually trigger enormously strong bullish forces once the first test is considered as to be successful we could be quite sure (65% odds) that the market needs the soonest re-test of the falling yearly Blue Arc resistance trail.
Let us now look at how the market has evolved since this last in depth "06-25-2017 Oil remains a Traders Dream" analysis:
Starting at current 2017 high (# 12-top), US Crude Oil has been going like clockwork in respect of the correspondingly triggered GUNNER24 Signals resp. turning targets the monthly 12/13/14/15 Candle up above has fired. Although the for August 2017 announced Blue Arc test did not take place until September the key to the further development of the market lies precisely in the test behaviour at the Blue Arc...
We must accept that the very first test and 100% accurate test of the 1*1 Bull Angle marked a very important higher bull market low. And an important higher low in the yearly time frame. And of course additionally the final low of 2017. And also we have to assume that the 1*1 Bull Angle hit which took place almost exactly at the center of the first square has triggered the next strong and long bull market upleg on monthly, yeah even on yearly base.
This view is due to the fact that the high September 2017 close was very first month close above stubborn yearly Blue Arc resistance, and since additionally the current October 2017 is in the position to close far above the Blue Arc - with only 6 trading days left the sky would have to fall on our heads to prevent this... - Crude Oil is able to deliver two consecutive monthly closings above the Blue Arc which WAS most determining 2017 resistance trail and has now morphed to a falling future monthly low support.
First clear confirmation that Blue Arc should be important future monthly oil support is seen at October 2017 lows which have successfully tested back Blue Arc from above!
==> US Crude Oil has triggered a MAJOR buy signal in the monthly time frame with received very bullish September 2017 close and supposed bullish October 2017 follow through close!
According to the GUNNER24 Trading Rules, these two consecutive monthly closings above Blue Arc resistance have officially activated higher bull market targets!
The first new uptarget for the at June 2017 low resumed US Crude Oil bull market is the first test of 57.40$ first square line upmagnet resistance within monthly 12/13/14/15 Candle above. The bull market will be able to deal with this target with a probability of 80%.
The second new bull market uptarget is the first test of lower line of 1st double arc upmagnet resistance in trend direction. The probability that the bull market can work off the lower line of 1st double arc in trend direction is about 75%. Until now, it looks like that this magnet could be tested at/near March 2018 at/near 63$.
But hold your horses, since there is still a very important resistance to overcome before the oil bull is really going nuts:
Above you recognize same up setup in the monthly, but now in relation to the MOST IMPORTANT CRUDE OIL resistance which is an existing combined DECADE & CENTURY Resistance. It`s matter of the resistance that springs from the final low of the year 1998 that pinpoint sustained the final low 2001 as well as the 2009 Bear Market Low being fallen below in the course of 2015 and since tested multiple-times at month lows/highs, month opening and closing auctions highlighted by the orange arrows.
It`s probably no surprise that the crude bull tested the DECADE & CENTURY Resistance also at final September 2017 high = 52.86$. Thus it`s proved that the combined DECADE & CENTURY Resistance continues to influence the trend... also in 2017... and of course beyond...
==> September 2017 tested back the DECADE & CENTURY Resistance from below, but quite obviously the gently rising main threshold was not able to trigger a violent bounce, instead the September 2017 closed near the DECADE & CENTURY trail and also the October 2017 is expected to do the same!
For October 2017, the DECADE & CENTURY resistance is at 53.08$.
==> September and October 2017 are monthly GUNNER24 Buy Candles and the fact that Crude Oil now trades very close to the DECADE & CENTURY resistance without being re-jected by that major strong resistance, is A) very bullish development, indirectly confirming the inner strength of the September/October 2017 buy signal which is MAJOR buy signal in GUNNER24 Terms!
B) prepares the very soon breakthrough of the many times tested DECADE & CENTURY trail which thereby becomes more and more permeable!
C) is harbinger for a 25$ advance into autumn 2018!
==> IF the combined DECADE & CENTURY resistance is finally taken upwards until year end - signal for this NEXT MAJOR buy signal will be the October and/or November and/or December close and/or two successive weekly closings above that trail the bull market should switch 2 gears higher, with good odds testing the lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget in course of 2018!
Possibly!!!? reflecting the rally leg out of 2016 Bear Market Low which was a first 29$ advance within 12 month candles = February 2016 Bear Market Low at 26.05$ to January 2017 current bull market high at 55.24$.
Nearly always when a combined DECADE & CENTURY resistance is finally overcome, unusually violent bullish forces must be unloaded, the ultra-shorts have to cover for months, the new bull feeds the overall bull market and therefore it could be the case that the markets rallies straightly from one DECADE trail, the current valid resistance trail, to the other well-defined and well-confirmed Crude Oil DECADE resistance trail which springs from the 2007 alltime-high (ATH) and braked at lower final highs of 2014 and 2013.
Coincidentally... the ATH + 2013 + 2014 DECADE Resistance area is in symmetry to possible lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget for 10/2018. Then next important time line (10-2018 ITL) together with ATH + 2013 + 2014 DECADE Resistance and lower line of 2nd potential bull market target forms strongest future upmagnet for the bull market ==> triple bull market upmagnet at 80.55$/10-2018!
==> The September and expected October 2017 close have activated an 80.55$ main target for the bull market which began at February 2016 low. Until now, it looks like that 80$-80.55$ main uptarget could be tested in course of autumn 2018. The probability that the bull market can work off its main uptarget in forecasted time is currently at about 35%.