We can recall that when a trend acts mostly choppy, overlapping and volatile for longer, it is usually trapped inside an Elliott corrective wave 4/IV. And in the very big picture since August 2020 alltime-highs, the gold is still trapped within a long-lasting, but rather only more or less sideways-trending corrective cycle.
Longer-lasting more or less just sideways-oriented corrective trends is one of the many courses the Elliott Wave Correction Pattern wave 4/IV allows. Whereby these waves 4`s have an important main task, namely to pull the money out of the traders and investors pockets again and again. Fooling and trapping both sides at all times, forcing bulls and bears into losing trades until one may give up in frustration or eventually find the big position on the wrong side of the market.
Correction waves 4/IV need a lot of patience.
And now this wave nerve-wracking IV on the gold charts is longer than a year.
And as has been the case for longer time, I am also very hesitant this time to recommend a safe trading recommendation. Simply because in a wave 4/IV when a stop loss is set for safety, the success rate of a trading recommendation is usually only just above the 50%.
Usually the gold should be on the long-term rise because it set a very bullish Double Low on the monthly chart. Where we know the monthly and yearly Double Low patterns usually are the best bottoms cause from experiance they form the most sustainable bottoms. These major Double Lowswere the bottom formation favored by W.D. Gann to open a first long position.
Monthly Double Lows usually result in sustainable upward trends. But in this special gold wave IV this is not the case, or not yet the outcome.
Above you find a daily 7 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup to measure the first initial up impulse out of the August 2021 spike low, what finalized the monthly Double Low pattern.
The downtrend cycle which began at the falling dark-red anual resistance rail forced a gold comeback into the first square of the GUNNER24 Setup & below the important first square line & additionally below the Blue Arc. These 3 items were former daily support stuff, now they offer natural resistance rails or resistance field. The space of the first GUNNER24 Square morphed again to a natural resistance energy gold. You must know that such a comeback move into the space of the first GUNNER24 Square is a bearish development ..., increases the bearish energy, which slows down possible rises.
But the late-September lows made at 1722$ and to the T at a natural existing Support Angle safed the bulls for now.
Above we see how important the Blue Arc magnet is since about mid-August. The Blue Arc is an important main magnet which the price likes to test and respect. Depending on, the Blue Arc provided important support in the recent past, but offered also daily main resistance at the blue arrows.
Watch, the Blue Arc is radiating daily main resistance energy into this week important close.
==> With gold printing a total of 5! consecutive closes just below the Blue Arc during the week concludes that a coming decisive daily close above this Blue Arc with a 60% probability will be a good long signal and afterwards the gold should climb further (probably again quite choppy) into identifiable 4-fold upmagnet at 1800$ surroundings towards early-November.
At the 1800$ for early-November unites the next due orange intermediate time line (time factor) & the always important price/time magnet of the 1*1 Gann Angle, the first square line & the big natural backtest uptarget of the lower line of 1st double arc.
Hmm, I can imagine that the first 2, 3 days of the coming week will behave weaker cause of the recognized unusual-good confirmed Blue Arc main resistance energy and the gold forced by this possible negative energy state has to test back Support Angle again in course of the next week at 1732$ to 1735$ ...!
What made me nervous for weeks is this weird cycle top of September 3rd, at the 1836.9$ which ultimately determined the course of the falling nearest annual resistance, but denied to work off the natural upward target of the lower line of 1st double arc.
That was a very unusual intent or false brake behavior, that I would like to dissolve. We must also include the subsequent developments from this first 5-day up impulse in order to be able to assess gold with greater certainty again.
With this measurement, the Blue Arc (first up impulse) and the most recent lower high of September 3rd are in harmony in terms of price and time. The lower line of 1st uptarget resistance energy triggered the underway daily and weekly downtrend cycle for sure.
This view offers that the gold at this week opening auction was finally able to overcome the Blue Arc resistance which by this morphed to a daily support rail what became strongly confirmed by the sighting that all 5 trading days of the week show a successful backtest of that Blue Arc support. Monday open is shy above Blue Arc. Tuesday close is nearly exactly at Blue Arc support from above. Wednesday to Friday closings are sitting shy above Blue Arc, and all the 5 past days made their lows below the downward sloping daily Blue Arc support.
Or, within daily 7 Candle Daily up the Blue Arc offers falling daily arc resistance. Within daily 5 Candle up there is a falling Blue Arc which provids backtest support for 5 days in row. And all this mixed environment and signal situation arises directly from the first move after the August 2021 spike low.
Regarding the probably very much to be expected next retracement or the next retest of the falling neares annual support line, the above 5 candle GUNNER24 UP enlightens me a bit more, as we can even identify an extremely rare 5-fold upward magnet for the turn of the month October to November.
With regard to the certainty expected, imminent next processing/backtest of the falling nearest annual resistance line enlightens me the above 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up a little more! Provides a little more certainty than the other about the assumed short-term main upward target of the current daily upcycle, as we can even identify an extremely rare 5-fold price/time upward magnet MAJOR resistance when the month changes from October to November at exactly the 1792$.
At 1792$ towards end of October to beginning of November unites the next due orange intermediate time line (time factor) & the always important 1*1 Gann Angle, the first square line & the big natural backtest uptarget of the lower line of 1st double arc an the major backtest magnet of the falling annual resistance. And since 5-fold upmagnet resistances can of course be more important than 4-fold resistance magnets, it may well be that gold will not even reach the round 1800$ at its next possible daily cycle top, but may become very bearish again before then at around the MAJOR 1792$.