Join the leader

The US shoutdown thing is not a big issue. QE pumping of billions into the markets week after week counts much more for the stock markets. Anyway, the markets are clearly working on the assumption that the debt limit is going to be lifted. Besides, there’s no other way, or else we’d see the US default and the biggest all-time market crash including the global economic crisis…

September, being the average weakest stock month of the year is overcome.

DOW, DAX, NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 are trading closely below or at their respective year-highs.

The negative seasonality aspects are ignored completely by the stock markets in 2013. Everything is sunshine. The outlook for the coming weeks and months is unaltered positive. The stock markets we track will close 2013 near their respective year-highs. Some new profitable long-entry chances are emerging. As early as in October, the Dow and the S&P 500 are likely to finish their current corrections starting with the first up-leg of the year-end rally.

Thus they are only going to retrace the course of the NASDAQ-100 that is hiking from one year-high to the other in the well-defined stair-step uptrend. Ruthlessly and without any sign of exhaustion, the NASDAQ-100 has nearly reached the next higher stair-step up-target of 3262 index points we postulated on September 15: 

The current year-high is the 3256.71, reached last Wednesday. And the very positive approach to this important resistance area is allowing one only conclusion…: The NASDAQ-100 is going to keep on rising cracking without much ado also the really extremely strong resistance of the 5th double arc in the weekly time frame and thus pulling up the weaker Dow Jones and S&P 500:

In the chart above you see the NASDAQ-100 in the weekly forecast. In the weekly 13 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup the market has reached another important resistance: the 5th double arc. The fourth and the fifth double arcs are the main targets in the uptrends, and technically we’d always have to assume that a new opposed GUNNER24 Setup may arise and build up at the main targets. I.e. at the main targets the markets use to start new trends, opposed to the respective main trend. That is what in this case will impossibly happen (a little correction maybe, but no new weekly downtrend!!).

The reason is, as mentioned, the extremely positive approach to the 5th double arc. We don’t make out any defense at the 5th double arc. Certainly, the candle before the last one was red, but no down pressure came up. The last two candles are closing near their respective highs. In addition, the last candle/week closed rather exactly below the lower line of the 5th. No sign of exhaustion was there, because in that case the long upper wick would be visible.

All in all there is not any sign that the 5th is going to exert resistance. From there we currently have to conclude that the 5th as a whole should show very little defense being broken upwards soon. I insist on my statement - http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/september-2013/15092013/ that the market must reach the 3467, being the next higher stair step in the uptrend, till January.

The first closing price within the lines of the 5th during one of the coming two weeks will newly confirm this forecast. A weekly close above the 5th as early as in October will anyway…

Even though the market is already trading at the main resistance, it hasn’t yet worked off its next higher stair-step uptarget (3262)! It is not ready yet. At 3262-3266 the market will technically be able and obliged to show some reaction, either, A) starting to take a break and providing the next consolidation at the highs, or B) showing a "rather extensive" correction.

In fact it would for 8 to 15 days. The lowest possible correction target is the 3057 stair-step horizontal support, the center of the just passed square. This is case B), the correction case. But much more likely again appears just an 8-15 day break in the uptrend, a new consolidation at the highs with downtarget 3160-3150. A weekly close below 3150 during the coming two weeks will activate the strong 3057 horizontal support as the maximum downtarget of the possible correction.

Now, at 1658 index points, the S&P 500 is indicating us the probable end of the current correction:

Since the year-high of 1730 index points (= monthly GUNNER24 Resistance, watch S&P 500 monthly 3 candle GUNNER24 Up Setup) three weeks ago the market has been corrected in a controlled and well-ordered way downwards above the 4th double arc. With the weekly close above the 4th double arc three weeks ago the market produced a tangible new buy-signal. Target for this uptrend is now the 1880 at the 5th double arc till January 2014. There is a probability of a 75% for the 5th to be reached in trend direction!

For the last few days the market has been testing the important support of the 4th. The low of last week was exactly upon the upper line of the 4th. Since a visible rebound of the upper line of the 4th is recognizable, the strong support function of the upper line of the 4th is confirmed. It would be very surprising if a closing price within the lines of the 4th expanded this controlled and normal correction in the uptrend. A closing price within the lines of the 4th during the next two weeks would mean that the support function of the 4th might weaken. The result would be a more extended correction down to about 1630 index points till the end of October…

Much more presumable turning points are, on the one hand the 1664 at the upper line of the 4th within the next 5 days. The probability is a 20%. There’s a much higher probability – an 80% - that the market will turn from Wednesday after next till Friday (during 8-10 trading days), actually at about 1658. That’s where the currently strongest Gann Magnet with the highest force of attraction below the current level is located. There, at 1658 the dominating Support Gann Angle will intersect the upper line of the 4th in two weeks… So the year-end rally in the S&P 500 (and in the Dow Jones as well, of course) should start around October 16-18, 2013 at about 1658 index points.

For completing this issue, here comes a brief update on gold. After having presented extensively the relevant October supports and resistances in the last free Sunday issue the gold price will mainly orient itself to, now – after the first 4 October trading days I can’t but emphasize again the importance of the variety of relevant monthly marks. Gold is going to orient itself to these important monthly marks:

1372/1322/1304/1272 and the 1232. When many monthly Gann Magnets determine being close together, trading on daily base is extremely difficult. On the one hand the monthly magnets attract the price magically, so when the magnet is worked off we do not really know immediately the reaction of the market to the individual magnets. The price may rebound immediately from the respectively relevant magnet but it may also test intense the magnets without breaking it. Monthly magnets are thoroughly capable to be re-tested for weeks or to be fallen short or exceeded without being broken finally.

Technically there is a simple rule how to trade the weekly and monthly magnets… it will take two consecutive daily closings above or below the magnet to make a signal – long or short. But if the important 1322, 1304 and 1272 are that close together as they currently are in gold being permanently worked off and re-tested to and fro by the market in the intraday swing as well as in the daily swing without being finally broken at all – on the one hand that makes the signaling become incredibly difficult, and on the other hand a signal that happens to show will be extremely faulty. Let’s go now to the 1322:

On time, at the first trading day in October the 1322 cracked. The horizontal support that had provided clear support for weeks cracked at the first try in October. Within just half an hour on Tuesday 10/01 gold did not only break the 1322 but also the 1304. The low of last week was at 1276.90 then. From there, the market bounced reaching 1324.20 high on 10/02 with a close of 1320.70. On 10/03 the high was at 1322.80 with a close of 1317.60. On Friday 10/04 the daily high was at 1326 and the close at 1311.20. My conclusion: The 1322 is now the most important monthly October resistance because, A) now 3!!! (unlike normally two) consecutive daily closings below the 1322 are to be seen.

On the other hand the 1304 clearly resisted. Only on Tuesday 10/01 gold closed below that, in fact at 1286.10. And only one daily close below a monthly magnet doesn’t make a signal. The daily lows of Thursday and Friday were at 1302 and 1305.10, respectively. The 1304 keep being the currently strongest daily support on closing base. My conclusion: 1304 is the most important monthly support now. Hmm, this one should not fall before two, or better three consecutive closings below that happen. Likewise gold won’t be on a safe way to the 1350 before gold shows three(?!) consecutive daily closings above the 1322.

But let’s consider now the low surroundings of last week. The weekly low was at 1276.90. The week is showing a long lower wick – willingness to buy!!! I mean, the next lower monthly support at 1272 is showing its power already. The market might really find the final October lows at 1272. I’m working on the assumption that next 8 days the 1272-1263 is going to be headed for. The current candle is showing high weakness and some sell signals:

A) The former Support Angle is clearly broken with the second lowest weekly close of the current down move. Thus it is mutating to a Resistance Gann Angle.

B) The Blue Arc support was given up.

C) The trigger of the whole malaise was the hefty rebound from the 1350 on Monday at opening, the strong weekly resistance, the upper line of the first square, combined with the 2*1 Angle that was tested back negatively, so to speak! Since the 2*1 is broken finally and tested back negatively, as the next target the heading for the 1*1 Gann Angle will be to be expected, according to the Gann Angle trading rules. This one will go at 1272 next week thus being an important combined Gann Support Magnet that we may expect a significant rebound and even the end of the correction.

If gold closes below 1272 during 3 consecutive days Gold will be likely to fall down to the 1*2 Support Ángle = 1232 till end of October. That is the next important combined weekly and monthly GUNNER24 Support Magnet.

In these whipsaw markets of the last weeks that might confuse any trader thus leading mercilessly to burning the trading account the professional signals have got their special importance. You get them in the GUNNER24 Gold Trader!

You best register with our GUNNER24 Gold Trader now. That’s where we oversee the optimal entries and exits for you. Especially in the difficult market situations where many factors have to be considered the Gold Trader is backed by the additional GUNNER24 Signals based on the combined 1, 4 and 8 hour setups to catch the optimum entries and exits.

Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann