The core statement of my last free gold analysis was that
"... ATH 1*1 Bear Market Angle, a DECADE RESISTANCE ANGLE, and the well-know 1322/1323 yearly resistance together form a nearly supernatural DECADE RESISTANCE for the month of September that is hardly going to overcome sustainably in 2017 and much less on monthly closing base. However, together with the 1330$-Blue Arc resistance, it`s absolutely predestinated to cater for the final 2017 gold high!..."
Gold`s downward cycle in the weekly and daily time frames, which began 16 trading days ago at 99.99% likely final 2017 high (1362.40) is extremely robust because in the shortest possible time many incredible important initial supports in the monthly and yearly time frames were pulverized to the downside. Most important supports have been the 1321-1323 GUNNER24 Pivot Horizontal, a monthly arc at 1330 and the 1308 horizontal, which was initial year 2015 high support.
And well, the renewed breach of 1321-1323 GUNNER24 Pivot in course of September, resp. at printed 1282.50 September close automatically activated the next lower 50$ GUNNER24 Pivot in the yearly time frame at 1271-1273 as major downtarget to be worked off for the downcycle!
Gold closed the month/week at 1282.50, 1271-1273 pivot attracts gold now obviously and strongly according the price, so we should recon - at least - with a 1271-1273 backtest for the running downer. The still overwhelmingly bearish COT readings in gold and the unfolding US$ index bounce which could persist for 3 to 5 weeks even allow a test of 1221-1223 for the next intermediate cycle low in gold which usually should arrive in course of December if gold further on wants to respect its typical seasonal pattern within still confirmed bear market:
2011: day after the Labor Day gold made its ATH and started a 300$ plunge
2012: gold moved higher at the beginning of September and shortly thereafter formed the key top – the one that started the biggest decline of the past decades
2013: right after the Labor Day gold started a 200$+ decline
2014: gold’s decline was underway, but still declined over 100$ after the Labor Day
2016: day after the Labor Day gold started a +200$ decline.
update for 2017 is as follows: Friday after the Labor Day gold started a downer that declined 84.3$ max., within just 16 trading days!!!!!
So weekly bias remains down... the downtrend through the daily lens is extraordinary bearish, hasn`t offered low-risk short entries because the yellow metal hasn`t backtested obvious resistance magnets seriously within its downer, we usually use for reasonable entries. But perhaps/hopefully soon a low-risk short entry is at hand:
Above is daily time frame. Downtrend that has begun at # 1 // 2017 high is at day # 16 and the last week, as well as the entire month of September closed near the low. Downtrend day # 10 delivered indeed very bearish signal, confirming that gold and the whole precious metal complex is in deep trouble and has finally switched from weekly upcycle to weekly downcycle: the 1*1 Angle out of Summer Low was gapped to the downside! And together with the deep violation of the green-dotted initial 2017 support horizontal & the final downside break of 1307-1309 area, former year 2015 high support, the bears finally won.
Prove for that # 10-sell day brought a blow into the stomach pit of the Gold Bugs is that the 3 to 4-day bounce out of # 10-low even wasn`t strong enough to test back the finally downwards broken 1*1 Angle which was at the 1321-1323 yearly pivot for a possible bounce top. This last important bounce was weak according price and time.
Friday-# 16 delivered the next sell signal in the daily because gold closed far below the Support Angle which has held for two consecutive days on closing base.
==> The many consecutive daily closings beneath 1*1 Angle and Fridays close below Support Angle have activated the next important Gann Angle below 1*1 Angle as nearest major downmagnet in trend direction!
==> 1*2 Support Angle out of Summer Low is IMMINENT & UNAVOIDABLE downtrend target!
The current most determining setup for gold is a classic 8 Candle GUNNER24 Down starting at 2017 top - watch next chart. This setup allows/points to a dead cat bounce starting on MONDAY! Another weak bounce according time and price, perhaps lasting again just 3 to 5 trading days, followed by next strong downleg into mid-October sickle-leaf time signal. For that strong timing signal, check the fat orange-dotted vertical above.
==> For the next few days gold, more or less, could respect the above and below placed curved dark-red arrow path!!, heading further south for the imminent test of the 1*2 Support Angle which is at yearly 1271-1273 GUNNER24 Support Horizontal for mid-October.
Next step of analysis is that we anchor a classic 8 Candle down at # 1 // likely final 2017 High:
We should trust in setup because lows of # 8 and # 9 are exact depictable by Blue Arc. Blue Arc was short-term support but a very, very weak one. The latest bounce top was negative backtest of the Blue Arc and downtrend dominating 2*1 Resistance Angle. 2*1 Resistance Angle is major downtrend resistance, no single daily close above 2*1 is allowed for now.
This downtrend is strong because the 2*1 Resistance Angle out of 2017 High is relative steep. Upper line of 1st became natural downtarget for the trend because Blue Arc and 1306-first square line have been broken to the downside. On Wednesday, the natural support of 1st double arc was reached/tested for the first time. So, important target of the daily down cycle was worked off!
Wednesday as Thursday have been strong enough to defend upper line of 1st support on closing base, confirming importance of 1st double arc as overall downtrend support. Friday closed shy below lower line of 2nd support which is sign of persistent weakness and another strong hint for that this gold trend aims 1*2 Support Angle!
But the 1st double arc support wasn`t finally broken to the downside at Friday close which was also September close and third quarter close!!
1st has held as support into important September close, although the whole week window dressing weakness was visible and this points to a brief bounce starting on Monday which is first trading day of new month and new quarter.
Think a bounce should be limited to a maximum of 5 trading days and has a 1300-1301 main target. 1300 is very important "round" Gann number resistance above, at 1301 resides nearest open gap which usually will be filled within a bounce, but perhaps the 1306 first square line = strong future resistance horizontal in the daily is the most attracting final dead cat bounce uptarget!
Hmm. Activated yearly 1271-1273-GUNNER24 Pivot Support downtarget is at daily 1*2 Support Angle for mid-October sickle-leaf time signal (October 13th), so daily and monthly time frame there and then are in full sync = price meets time, means a change in trend is imminent.
But obviously the 2nd double arc, the next double arc support below the 1st, is at the 1260$ for mid-October... and if 1st support environment is finally gone next few days, the 2nd double arc test gets activated, thus this underway daily and weekly downtrend/downcycle which usually should run to mid-October could violate 1271-1273 support trail by a large amount, could even reach/test a 1260, or even lower...
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