Gold may reach 1223 till year-end
Gold is within a strong deflation sell-off wave and targets "round" 1000$ Gann Magnet first and probably much lower for this bear market, alas. Before, I expected the necessary test of the "round" Gann Magnet to happen in September/October 2015. Technically, reaching respective working off the 1000$ should have meant the absolute end of this bear market.
Yet the time for working off the 1000$ in the mentioned time frame is slowly running out, and with the developments of last week I expect now that a next multi-month lasting countertrend in overall bear market is underway.
Gold has re-conquered the major 1123$-horizontal pivot/magnet of year 2015 on daily and weekly closing base. This magnet should again act as main support the coming weeks and months, definitely being able to avert the slip-off to 1000$ in 2015 now!! 02082015Everything on the derivation of the most important monthly gold horizontals = important monthly magnets (1323/1223/1123/1073/1023 etc.) you’ll find in free GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 08/02/2015…
I think that the current countertrend as a last consequence will lead to the 1223$ horizontal pivot/magnet to be worked off till year-end/January 2016, followed by another multi-month strong downleg in the overall bearish market that should/could bottom sometime in the 2nd half of 2016. Well, the developments of the past days are bullish short- and mid-term, but in the long run they’re extraordinarily bearish, with a bear low likely to follow in 2016 at about 800$ or even lower...
21 trading days after the current bear low, gold topped at 1169.80$ on August 24. At the bear low, a 5 wave up (green 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) into the August high can be seen. At the August high, an ABC correction developed that bottomed with a double low at/close to the Fib number 34. ABC correction into double low lasted 13/15 days, that’s equal to turn Fib number 13!
==> A next 5 wave up is likely to have started at the lows of day # 36, the low of Friday before last.
Swing since low of day # 36 should continue cause momentum has some days to go till overbought. Watch especially MACD oscillator, it´s shy before a huge buy signal, and this hints to a multi-week upwards leg now. Count + wave structure + momentum suggests that an important higher countertrend low was made at day # 36, and another multi-week upswing is underway now.
The GUNNER24 Weekly View:
There is one last chance for working off the 1000$ in course of October 2015, respective November 2015. It´s obvious that gold is heading now for the 3rd test of the ruling main resistance of this downtrend = 2015 Resistance Angle.
The 2015 Resistance Angle is derived from absolute 2015 high. For next week, this angle forms a strong weekly resistance magnet together with 1146.50$ first square line resistance. Hmm, usually at this 3rd!! test a next strong rejection from this main resistance should be expected, and in the further course gold could head south for the 1000$... but as emphasized above:
==> the daily count + wave structure + glooming huge MACD buy signal hints to an imminent final upside break of the 1147$ main resistance magnet!!!
If the 2015 Resistance Angle will be indeed overcome on weekly closing base within the next 3 weeks, the 2015 downtrend will finally be broken, and at least a test of the round 1200$ should be expected then in the course of 2015! Very likely current countertrend should top by the end of 2015/January 2016 at the 1*2 Resistance Angle and the 1223$ horizontal pivot/magnet!
Week # 27 of the downtrend bottomed at a GUNNER24 Diagonal, printing the 1073.70$ contract bear low.
This week and the last tested this diagonal support again at the lows. Since this week test was the 4th exact one it may be the decisive one, and since we observe obvious upwards energy developing after a next higher bounce low and since the current week closed above last week’s close (reversal candle = buy signal), a very strong upwards thrust is underway.
==> so the next higher important resistance being the ruling resistance for the 2015 downtrend, the 1147$ resistance magnet should normally be reached till Tuesday!.
The current valid GUNNER24 Up Setup in the daily time frame is starting at bear low. Very accurately, the 2 day up impulse predicted the important countertrend top in the 3rd double arc resistance environment. This is where the high of the current countertrend was marked on August 24.
The subsequent ABC correction led the metal to the support of the – previously upwards broken – 1st double arc = strong daily support area. The low of the 34th day of the countertrend attained the upper line of the 1st double arc, thereby testing back this support successfully.
At the low of # 36 = 4th exact test of the weekly GUNNER24 Support Diagonal the ABC correction in the daily time frame finally closed with a fake low and new important and obviously strong upwards impulse started there.
Since the low of the day # 36, also in the daily time frame gold fired off several buy signals. I. a., it was able to re-break the 1*1 Angle starting from the absolute bear low and re-conquering the usually strong resistance of the 2nd double arc. Now, the 1*1 Angle as well as the environment of the 2nd double arc are important and strong future daily support again.
Technically, working off the combined 1147$ resistance magnet is just a question of a few hours as to the impact of the powerful signals of the current up wave. Besides, as mentioned, the 1147$ mark should really be reached till Tuesday.
As well technically, afterwards at the third test of this dominating resistance of the 2015 downtrend in the weekly time frame and after the 1147$ being worked off, a new mighty down wave should begin that should actually force gold to compellingly work off the "round" 1000$ Gann Magnet until the end of October resp. beginning of November 2015…
… Since however after the successful re-break of the 2nd double arc resistance in the daily time frame reaching the 3rd double arc resistance is activated now according to the GUNNER24 Trading Signal, seeming to be very strong the trend force of the current up leg even in the weekly time frame, the 1147$ resistance magnet is likely to be exceeded… so gold should really be able to head for and reach the 3rd double arc resistance at 1152$-1158$ within the coming 13 trading days!
Not before this resistance area, gold will possibly be expected to be forced into the next correction phase of the countertrend (may last up to 8-10 days!) that actually should test back the major 1123$ horizontal pivot/magnet.
After a successful test of the 1123$, gold will be supposed to sally forth to work off the major 1223$ horizontal pivot/magnet through January 2016.
Brief upshot according to targets and count:
1. Continuing higher till Tuesday 22 to work off the 1147$.
2. Within the next 13 trading days (till 10/02) the 1152$-1158$ resistance will be reached. Probability of this price target to be reached at more than a 75%.
3. After reaching the 1152$-1158$ resistance a down swing till about October 14-16 should have to follow to test back the 1123$ support magnet once more.
4. Then up till end of 2015/January 2016 to work off the 1223$.
==> A very first daily close above the 3rd double arc resistance in the 2 Candle up setup till 10/02/2015 – NO MATTER WHEN IT HAPPENS TILL THEN!!! – will be the final confirmation that gold should/will reach the major 1223$ horizontal pivot/magnet in this countertrend.