On 5th of September the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the US Tech indexes broke a monthlong wide trading range to the upside and meanwhile they are back at their alltime-highs. And if we consider the current economic news and the China tarrifs situation, then we have to raise eyebrows, how many Chip Stocks, which are regarded as highly cyclical, have positively digested and even outperformed in the usually always very difficult months of August and September.
Today I would like to take a closer look at the inner strength of these Chip Stocks, which has been apparent for some time now. And well..., if you ever allow me a preliminary conclusion: This party is likely to continue quite a long time and should soon get another push that many bears will caught off guard.
The last time we looked at the Semi`s regarding possible future developments and with the help of the SOXL ETF, was on June 30th within Free GUNNER24 Forecasts: „Do Semi`s smell a positive China tariffs resolution?!".
SOXL is a 3x leveraged Bull ETF, designed to move three times the price movement of its target index, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index.
At the past June close the weekly SOXL candlestick chart presented an active yearly Double Top pattern with alltime-high (ATH) made at 209$ March 2018 Top. Afterwards the orange-dotted Diamond pattern formed that resolved downward and together with the entire US stock market SOXL bottomed finally at # 1 // 2018 Xmas Low and the upleg that started at this decisive higher bull market low went back above round 200$ W.D. Gann resistance number just for printing a Double Top on the yearly, monthly and weekly time frame at April 2019 highs.
The Double Top rejection was a deeper one and the bull market which started at # 1-Xmas Low printed a first important higher low after 23 uptrend weeks at natural Gann Angle support.
At the end of June market was expected to go straight through natural Blue Arc resistance within overlayed classic 13 Fib number Candle up, just to keep running and re-testing and reaching the lower line of 1st double arc at 187.50$ within the next 3 to 6 weeks.
And so it happened...
The updated chart shows that at 202.11$ July (Jul19) highs even the upper line of 1st double arc – obviously a double arc resistance magnet on weekly, monthly and yearly base – was pierced for the second time and the next rejection from 1st main double arc resistance led to the next serious backtest of Blue Arc and still bullish ruling 2019 2*1 Support Angle at next important higher bull market lows of August 2019 (Aug19).
And by this week close SOXL is back at 1st double arc main resistance, showing another test – and another initial bearish reaction - of upper line of 1st at this week highs. All in all, printing the third weekly close above the lower line of 1st double arc which in itself does not represent an official GUNNER24 Buy Signal since the two previous closings above the upper line of 1st failed misserably.
==> Thus we now experience the third test of the 1st main resistance & ATH environment. And the all in all fourth test of the round 200$ resistance number.
This current test should succeed and should see the final breakthrough of the heavy 200$ and the 209$ ATH. With a probability of +80%. Thus higher near-term highs are hardly avoidable, respectively necessary and weekly 13 Candle up setup above forecasts the work-off of lower line of next higher lower double arc line in 2019 rally direction at 232$ until December 2019!
This lower line of 2nd projection is likely to be only a weaker arc upmagnet resistance because in 2019 the lower line of 1st was always the same. The upper line of 1st was/is major 2019 target and so we have to expect the imminent work off of upper line of 2nd double arc magnet once the lower line of 2nd magnet was worked off/reached.
So, SOXL – usually – will be able to reach a 240$ to 250$ towards end of 2019, resp. at likely 2019 highs.
Why should we now strongly buy a 175$-178$ pullback and expect first 2019 uptarget at 232$/next main uptarget at 240$ to 250$??!!
One evidence for the upcoming 240$-250$ rally thesis is that the bullish weekly momentum now seems unstoppable. Slow Stochastics and RSI and last but not least also MACD, which just fired a heavy buy signal, are now rising in harmony. This is one of the most bullish momentum alignments possible. Esp. this just born MACD Buy Cross promises that SOXL will be stuck in an uptrend for a few more months! And somehow possible til the very last trading day of this 2019 rally year!
Second recorded volume bars at next higher May19 bull market lows and recent next higher Aug19 bull market lows make obvoius that the Big Whales have accumulated near bearish 2019 extremes which have defended rising fat green-dotted 2019 support line.
==> with the volume, the now again confirmed bull market pattern of higher 2019 lows and the very strong, optimistic momentum in the back, this 4th test of round 200$ to 209$ ATH will succeed with a probability of 80% at currently underway fourth test!
==> Mostly after an important resistance break in the 4th test some BIG MOVES are the consequence.
The market as the highly qualified investors know this rule inside out, so a 240$-250$/Dec19 target achievement should really only be pure formality as soon as the new ATH will be reached, what the GUNNER24 expects in the course of the coming 3 weeks at the latest.
Market: SOXL ETF
First uptarget at 232$.
2019 year end uptarget area at 240$ to 250$.