Back in April I had the uncomfortable feeling that the gold is working on a "very" complex inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern in the monthly and yearly charts. This is initially one of the most bullish bottoming formations and offers a possible multi-year holding bottom or base, followed by a next sustainable multi-year bull market.
Then, I calculated a 65% chance that gold has to follow the blue route back to 1200$-1180$, perhaps even a 1150$ or so, forming its most Right Shoulder over the course of summer 2018, before then, sometime in 2019, the overall-dominating bear market neckline resistance could finally be broken to the upside. Below is monthly gold chart with potential multi-year "very" complex inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, as presented and analyzed within free GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 04/29:
Additionally important at that time was the finding that gold has formed a NR4 breakout pattern in the monthly because the 4-month trading Range of January to April candles was Narrow compared to the past.
Thus, so my statement at the time was that gold could soon change its trend direction from sideways to hard upwards (35% chance) or hard downwards (65% odd). As we all know, the trend changed from boring sideways to hard down, after final April 2018 top, the 99%-likely final high of 2018, made at 1369.40$ was printed.
Below follows the updated monthly gold chart with gold trading at 1222$ BIG GUNNER24 Support Horizontal a yearly rail, that shows how far the "possible!" most Right Shoulder of the complex inverse Head and Shoulders bottom is already advanced.
And that most Right Shoulder should ideally - because of the very often prevailing and determining harmony or symmetry - come in once again at about 1180$, or close to 1172$ next lower important yearly GUNNER24 Support Horizontal.
At least Big Round 1200$ Gann number backtest seems unavoidable important downtarget for the strong gold downtrend after all existing yearly supports: 1322$ - 1308$ - 1272$ - 1240$ have been finally broken in any important time frame and the deep 1222$ yearly support level violation that has happened at this year lows. The year low reached so far is exactly 1210.70$.
Only last Thursday, the overall 5th bearish Flag trend continuation pattern of this downtrend clearly resolved to the downside...
... and was remarkably quickly back tested - at first glance - negative on Friday. Friday lows just avoided a lower year low, but I am negative because the chart signals in the daily time frame are negative.
The next Bear Flag downwards resolution and the now again much lower signaling daily momentum points to another push lower which should test next resp. in further course of August!
A) 1200$ BIG ROUND SUPPORT DOWNMAGNET
B) BUT the IDEAL summer 2018 doldrums low and likely FINAL trading low of the year 2018 usually should be expected at round about 1172$-1180$ according inverted complex Head and Shoulders pattern target and 1172$ yearly support magnet, either at possible final August 2018 and/or at possible final September 2018 low!
This likewise determining monthly important Gann Angle sell signal ADDITIONALLY supports a BIG DOWNTREND LOW at 1172$-1180$:
Above is well-known 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up starting at # 1 // Dec15 Bear Market Low. Watch that the 1*1 Angle out of bear market low WAS!! decisive multi-year bull market support. 1*1 Angle was touched or successfully tested at the placed dark-green arrows during bull phase.
Last exact backtest of 1*1 Angle from above is seen at May low. Also, at May low the former finally upwards broken Blue Arc was tested back. But then came the June which broke anything of importance. On monthly closing base! Prior 1*1 Bull Market Angle support. Former Blue Arc bull market support. Additionally the 1308$ and the 1272$ went over the cliff. Big Bad bear signal with received June 2018 close!
It seems that June open was an opening auction shy below NR4 support horizontal (not shown within chart above...), thus at the June open the shit has hit the fan, from my point of view... and downtrend which began at 2018 High gained speed or was finally confirmed.
This June close was very bearish thing. Fired a VERY bearish double GUNNER24 Sell Candle in the monthly time frame. And that June close in one go FAR BELOW combined Blue Arc and 1*1 Bull Market Angle support magnet has activated the very first test of 1*2 Angle out of 2015 Bear Market low, the next most important yearly support angle out of 2015 Bear Market Low.
And well, for this month and next month candle the 1*2 Angle takes course at or close to the yearly 1172$ GUNNER24 Support Horizontal!!
I have first test or touch of 1*2 Angle is ALMOST ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY as most important downtarget for this downtrend!
Hard to tell when exactly ALMOST INEVITABLE 1*2 Angle test will come true. This could happen within next few days into end of August at 1176$ after just fired next Bear Flag sell signal. Or..., perhaps in the extreme, the final 1*2 Angle test or work off will succeed during September 2018, then the 1*2 Angle takes course at 1180$ or so...
In any case, and this is indeed impressive high odd, according GUNNER24 Trading Rules the 1*2 Angle will be tested with an 85% probability within current underway weekly and monthly downcycle!!!
And well, usually the likely strong holding 1*2 Angle support = important downtrend support magnet will be the responsible yearly support for printing the summer 2018 doldrums low, resp. most Right Shoulder low or final price low of entire year.
A first decisive monthly close below 1*2 Angle is next Big Bad GUNNER24 Bear Signal and activates some lower bear market lows in course of 2019.