Week showed most best and most healthiest rally behaviour of entire PM bull market, IMHO, as the gold together with silver and the Silver Miners went crazy and above all the silver took the leadership in this Precious Metals bull market and as a consequence the gold to silver ratio dropped around 8 ratio-pts in just 1 week max., what is rare panic event and is a reliable indicator of credit conditions.
The gold to silver ratio (GSR) declines during a boom and does its greatest service when it typically signals the credit contraction by increasing. Also this recent panic drop is a very safe signal for that the bull market in the Precious Metals sector will be in uptrend for many more years as the GSR now has activated the 50!
As the gold bull is now in rage by closing the week nearly at year 2020 highs/current bull market highs and close to 1923.7$ year 2011 alltime-high (ATH), I see the EXACT test of the most important bullish gold-price reached ever is getting tested perhaps on Wednesday, what likely will be the most important week since months reagarding upcoming signals.
And this is exactly what July close is all about if we want to estimate how gold will do in the course of the next few months...
Now let`s analyse the state of this gold stampede and what could unfold or threat after the 1923.7$-1922$ major price upmagnet likely is getting tested in course of the week.
The odd that 1923.7$-1922$ major price upmagnet is worked off until July close is at about a +97%.
We have to expect a 1923.7$-1922$ is ABSOLUTE NECESSITY for July 2020 as ATH resistance horizontal and 2*1 Backtest Upmagnet Main Resistance Angle after this past week rally form an irresistibly attractive magnet for this month candle:
Watch how close the 1900$ and the July candle is to the 1923.7$ ATH what of course is most nearest interesting upmagnet. An upmagnet not only determining on yearly, but also on DECADE & CENTURY & lifetime base.
This naturally strong ATH upmagnet radiates horizontal resistance which unites for the July 2020 with the 2*1 Gann Angle out of 2015 Bear Market Low. This 2*1 Angle I exactly named „2*1 Backtest Upmagnet Main Resistance Angle".
This 2*1 Angle is activated uptarget after the 2020 Low EXACTLY has tested the 1*1 Bull Angle very positively from above at 2020 lows. Therefore the 2020 Low is a next higher MAJOR low of the bull market.
As the final 2018 Low is also a MAJOR low. This turn arrived precisely at 1*2 Angle support ==> another MAJOR Gann Support Angle out of final 2015 Bear Market Low.
And when 1*1 Angle together with 1*2 Angle EXACTLY are respected at the last two most important turns of the bull market it would become totally abnormal when the for July 2020 existing major backtest upmagnet formed by dark-red dotted 1923.7$ ATH resistance horizontal and the ideal & NOW IN STRIKING DISTANCE radiating 2*1 Backtest Upmagnet Main Resistance Angle will not be tested in course of July 2020!
==> The odd is at +97% that the 1923.7$ to 1922$ natural GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance on yearly base (not placed above) is due til Friday.
Watch here below in this monthly gold futures chart the past-proved main importance of all the 3 most important Gann Angles out of the 2015 Low and the starting point of the up setup since bull is getting started.
I`ve ovaled the mostly pinpoint hits of the 2*1 Angle resistance and backtest magnet and now close backtest target, of the 1*1 Bull Market Angle and the 1*2 Bull Market Angle at former important month and year highs and lows.
This all hits at main price and main time magnets is quite sure evidence that A) choosen scaling of the monthly chart fully fits. Therefore the GUNNER24 Methods we apply little bit below should work nearly perfect regarding coming and prior fired trend signals, former activated targets, threatening upmagnets and the perhaps due pullback/correction cycles etc.
B) It is 100% plausible that the gold in this rally necessarily has to test or work off the 2*1 Backtest Upmagnet Main Resistance Angle. This BIG BACKTEST likely will come true in course of the next 5 trading days and so til end of this July.
This applies even more when we add the bull market count on monthly base – the time factor:
The July 2020 Candle is the 56th month candle of bull market that started at # 1 // 2015 Bear Market Low.
And yeah baby, 56 - 1 is the major important 55 Fibonacci number. Always threatening trend turn number.
Additionally the July 2020 is the 5th month candle of the rally cyle that started at final 2020 Low. Coronavirus March 2020 panic lows have been printed during the 51th month candle of the bull...
July 2020 candle offers possible somehow rare # 5-Fib number final top & # 56-1=55 Fib number top combo underway or looming.
Also note that the last four Fib numbers in the sequence ALWAYS have triggered an important trend change in the bull run! What in itself is quite unusual series that a market respects the Fib numbers sooooo closely when it comes to important turns and extremes on yearly base.
# 8-Fib number top ==> # 13-Fib number bottom ==> # 21-Fib number top ==> # 33-low, what is next major extreme and obvioulsy is oriented to the 34 Fib number.
SOME of the turns signaled by the time or above Fib numbers EXACTLY have arrived after the EXACT hit of 1*2, 1*1 and since humans/algo-software/traders/investors always – mostly unconsciously – pay attention to or respect repetitions something important points to the outcome that the soon awaited classic backtest of the 1923.7$ ATH resistance in course of July triggers the next trend change!
OR in very clear words: A July 2020 at 1923.7$-1922$ has the theoretical energy regarding time and the former proven mathematical possibility or probability to become a very important, and yeah, even the final top of entire bull market and/or very important top of 2020.
Every chart novice understands this next below easily. The now in the making Double Top what is a looming Double Top on combined yearly & DECADE & CENTURY base.
A Double Top what starts forming at alltime-high resistance area and it starts forming at the time when the ATH resistance likely will be worked off at the # 56-1=55/# 5 Fib number combo what by definition is one of the strongest possibly coming trend turn signals the time factor is able to fire.
It shouldn`t surprise us when the due ATH resistance backtest fails miserably at the highs of July/August and gold would deliver the phat blue-dotted arrow path and gold would have to test back the 1*1 Bull Market Angle in a stronger and some months lasting corrective cycle.
Such blue-dotted arrow outcome or possibly due next classic backtest of the 1*1 Bull Angle would be very natural cycle behaviour and would be just one of the easiest exercises for such a looming MAJOR ATH Double Top pattern together with a failed 2*1 Backtest Angle test together with the 1923.7$-1922$ GUNNER24 MAJOR Upward Resistance Magnet Horizontal and the # 56-1=55/# 5 Fib number combo possible trend changer according time all together raise their bear claws.
At the minute, I think the 1923.7$-1922$ is due for next week Wednesday. But there are some more very important possible time turn magnets existing, so valid for the coming week:
Monday after open is interesting time magnet for the ATH backtest as gold and silver past Monday delivered a surprising big rally day. This abnormality could be repeated!
Wednesday could be D-day for the ATH backtest as it is futures rollover date and often trend turning Fed day at same time. We will see and will notice the final outcome...
... what is much more important than capturing exactly the day of the 1923.7$-1922$ processing is the very first reaction to this or at the Big 1923.7$-1922$ Resistance Magnet and last but not least the Friday 31 close what ends the July.
Think a July close below the 1900$ should release a quick, perhaps sharp pullback swing into 1860$ or so within just 10 trading days.
BUUUUT a July close somewhat above the Big 1923.7$-1922$ Resistance Magnet, a 1935$ or so and of course higher, would have overcome the Big 1923.7$-1922$ Resistance Magnet finally, I suppose and this ALSO would signal a change in trend.
==> A trend change regarding the bull trend power released by the final overcoming of the lifetime resistance horizontal in course of or triggered by the 56-1= 55 Fib trend turn number.
As in such a case the current bull market would have received ==>
First, the next and a MAJOR bull market continuation signal = bull market would continue for some more years usually and perhaps wishes to run for 89 Fib number month candles maybe at least.
Second, and much more significant, the bull energy should begin to accellerate as the next bull rocket stage would be ignited. The gold bull market could go really parabolic the next few years!?!
Third. A July close – or any other future month close - above the 1935$ or so would signal a Blue Sky breakout has begun with then activated big uptargets around 3000$, even 4000$ as 2x 1923.7$ is about 4000$.
And I tell you this and I show you this to confirm this above mega-bullish option is a very, very valid and solid choice for the gold bull market now.
For the justification of the mega-bull option perhaps triggered by next Friday resp. final July 2020 close we overlay this well-kown monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup. The 8 month Candles initial impulse starts at the # 1 // 2015 Bear Market Low:
If we look at the 1900$ here at # 56-July 2020 candle in relation the the setup we can cleary recognize that the bull market usually should test and also finally work off the lower line of 3rd double arc in trend direction as the lower line of 3rd GUNNER24 Uptarget should now emit irresistible magnet energy.
This big GUNNER24 Uptarget work off at 1960$ or so, lower line of 3rd former activated monthly uptarget usually should come true September to mid-October as towards then the traditional strongest period of the year ends for the gold.
This average seasonal cycle extremes are always existing important time magnets and well, my guts tell me that the gold with high, high odd has to run a little bit higher as just the Big 1923.7$-1922$ Resistance Magnet, namely into 1972$ looming GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance rail up to the round 2000$ W.D. Gann number upmagnet before the next really important bull market cycle high should be on the agenda.
==> I think gold wants/needs to crawl higher for # 57-August and # 58-September, mainly oriented to the upward pointing 2*1 Backtest Main Resistance Angle without beeing finally rejected by this rail, instead further on attracted by the rising upmagnet ernergy of the 2*1 Angle and therefore perhaps could deliver more or less the above inserted black ghost candle shapes for these next 2 month candles.
==> a well possible nearterm scenario is also this: ==> A 1960$ for current # 56-July 2020 can not be ruled out as IF the 1923.7$ ATH would be overcome in the course of the next 4 trading days on daily closing base, the 1960$ monthly upmagnet would only be a few strong hours away. In the best case maybe, the 1960$ or so could even be printed at the closing auction of the # 56-July 2020!!!
And last, but fore sure not least here is my bigger picture forecast into 2021:
I additionally expect that this above lower line of 3rd and or the environment of the 3rd triggers the next important bull market high at 1972$ to 2000$ surroundings and afterwards gold will correct for about 5 to 6 months candles, perhaps wishing to deliver this uber-bullish and for very longterm bullish DECADE Cup and Handle formation as a consequence:
The state of the monthly momentum oscillators point to the outcome that gold has to rally a little bit further as just a 1923.7$-1922$ in this monthly uptrend cycle, that began at the 2020 coronavirus panic lows. For this observe the monthly MACD, that offers some more wiggle room for higher prices.
The probable result of even higher rally prices is additionally supported by the Slow Stokes oscillator which is now back at historical highs, last seen at 2011 ATH, but still rising, what overall points to that a next important cycle high looks imminent in course of THIS July or sometimes in the course of the next 1, 2, 3 months.
Count this with me! The gold futures contract alltime-high was printed in the course of September 2011:
From there until September 2020 we count exactly 9 passed full years. This important time magnet, in turn, offers and allows with regard to the cycle view that the/a next important high of the overall bull market could be finally printed in the course of # 58-September 2020 and thus the final right top of a DECADE long Cup might be harvested only in # 58-September 2020.
Whereby the perhaps future determining downward oriented 3rd double arc environment within monthly 8 Candle up could be the responsible main resistance that gold needs to deliver a „monthlong Handle" corrrective pattern in unsual strong bull market once this now 5 months candles long rally has finally topped within months.
==> The main intention of the gold market could be that after a 1972$-2000$ work off sometimes in course of a # 58-September!?! 2020 next main bull market top a 5 to 6 months long corrective Handle pattern must be formed, within the final Handle lows might be printed around March 2021 at about 1672$ - 1690$!
... likely followed by the next hyper-strong bull market rally cycle in gold what easily could rally into the round 3000$ Gann number til end of 2021.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann