Well, dear Siber enthusiasts. It's never easy, right?
With a view to the recent past of the silver futures contract, the uptrend which began at the final low of the last year feels enormously powerful.
In the very big picture of the silver futures contract however, and this is just an objective observation, nothing else as a below-average countertrend movement took place since 2018 Low that marks current multi-year bear market low.
And on Friday, at the fresh annual highs, it precise hit some well-confirmed powerful resistances on yearly as well as on DECADE base from below:
After that, the Silver continuous futures contract (SI #) dropped from 16.625$ fresh 2019 High already 40 cents into this week close. It certainly showed a first effective bearish reaction to the next test of the falling Descending Triangle Resistance, which has now been operating for 6 long trading years. In the 11-year candlestick chart of the silver on monthly base shown above, the last 9 month uptrend appears to be growing microscopically.
Just as pale and minimal is the positive development of the often defining trend-strength oscillator MACD since printed # 1 // Year 2018 // Bear Market Low.
Thus, both MACD and the price trend since the bear market extreme signal that silver delivers just the next important countertrend.
The GUNNER24 Up Setup on monthly base, which has been developing since # 1 // 2018 Low, is practically undecipherable. Thus, so to speak, the 1:1 mirror image of this monthly uptrend.
Next, let's zoom into to the 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up, which has evolved since the # 1 // Bear Market Low, in order to evaluate the inner structure and individual features and strenght of the trend.
Classic Fib number up, as it should be when the mass rules. Scaling should work fine also for the longer-term future cause:
A) top of uptrend month # 4 can also be captured with the Blue Arc resistance.
B) # 9-July 2019 candle respects first square line resistance for now and last but not least
C) uptrend month # 7-low is textbook pinpoint backtest of 1*2 Angle out of Bear Market Low. # 7-low is current 2019 Low.
Thus, this successful backtest of one of the most important supports springing from Bear Market Low strongly confirms that 1*2 Support Angle offers future support on yearly base.
That`s why the the 2*1 Angle as the 1*1 Angle out of Bear Market Low should also emit energy on the very, very important yearly base.
And you recognize it by your own that the silver has hit 2*1 Angle at Friday highs from below and this existing 2*1 Angle resistance together with the 100% accurate test of since 6 years ruling falling Descending Triangle Resistance led to the 40 cent intraday loss or visible bearish reaction into 16.23$ Friday close.
==> At Friday 16.625$ top or at this year high the shining metal has met double resistance on combined! DECADE and yearly base! Which could have meant the FINAL end of the entire monthly countertrend...
For a variety of reasons, I do not want to commit myself to this option yet.
Among other things, because the rest of the Gold and Silver Sector still looks very bullish without having encountered the next major resistances above. However..., we all are familiar with the fact that silver always is a bitchy beast. We remember only too well how often there has been bullish hope in the past few years, only to turn immediately afterward and continue its slow and destructive bear market.
But it is undeniable that among other resistance stuff at the top 6-year triangle resistance is tested somewhat negative and therefore it can come next to a pretty sharp stronger downwave or pullback in the daily and weekly charts, which easily and relaxed could test back the above highlighted monthly 1*1 Support Angle = 1*1 Bull Market Angle which takes course at 15.30$ for coming uptrend month candle # 10-August 2019!
If next an about 1S pullback/correction unfolds until August, you could buy the silver quite without hesitation at 15.25$ - 15.35$ monthly 1*1 Bull Market Angle support, as we can always hope for a coming stronger move that often likes to deliver a stronger backtest of the printed cycle highs.
I would not announce the risk of a resumed bear market or sharper correction for silver if there is not much more cause for concern.
For further explanation, we next open silver in the weekly chart.
As you can see, at the year's high, a falling resistance line, which has been in existence since 2013, was also processed with pinpoint accuracy at 16.625$/2019 High.
The latest week candle shows clear negative impact to this next existing annual resistance = red-line "2016-2019 Resistance Rail", which has not been overcome for long time yet:
The week spiked hard into falling red-lined 2016-2019 Resistance Rail and AT SAME TIME finally worked off the natural 1st double arc GUNNER24 Uptarget within seen weekly 12 Candle GUNNER24 Up that again starts measuring at # 1 // 2018 Bear Market Low. Bad and ugly looking natural double resistance upmagnet finally worked off now! Or: actual 2019 Top made at combined resistances on yearly, DECADE and weekly base.
If we now count the upward trend since the bear market low, there is still an active bearish time signal because year high is seen at uptrend week No. 36, which is close enough to the possible Fibonacci turn number 34 to signal that main trend has finally topped at 16.625$, probably followed by a sideways or pullback or correction cycle on weekly base.
Big Silver Option is that the 16.625$ extreme marks final high of entire 2019. If this would be true a next mult-month bear market leg is underway now!
We have to state that this grand master trading rule takes effect:
W.D. Gann: „When price meets time, a change in trend is imminent"!
Therefore, silver bugs should now act very cautious and await the likely downturn down to 15.25$-15.35$ for a snapback into 1st double arc resistance at around 16.20$ (green arrow forecast) until they want to open new long positions.
Please recognize above that there at 15.25$-15.35$ the weekly 1*2 Support Angle out of # 1 // 2018 Bear Market Low should offer stronger rising weekly support for the coming month of August.
For August also a classic backtest of now finally upward broken falling orange-lined 2016-2019 Resistance Rail might come true. Such backtest in course of August would come in at around 15.25$-15.35$! and would strength the overall BIG 15.25$-15.35$ support area, which is just valid main support for the entire month of August 2019.
OR! ==> 15.25$-15.35$ is combined weekly and yearly August 2019 support magnet = usually very strong support and at same time most ideal GUNNER24 Pullback/Correction downmagnet!
GUNNER24 Method of course might be totally wrong in signaling a looming weekly silver pullback or correction but such would absolutely fit the current period of the year, also better known as the summer doldrums where the Precious Metal markets usually act lame and downwards cause of holiday season.
Next MAJOR SILVER BUY SIGNAL ==>
Overcoming the above highlighted combined falling red-line 2016-2019 Rail and natural 1st double arc resistance magnet on weekly closing base until end of August 2019 would signal an indeed major GUNNER24 Buy Signal on combined A) weekly, B) monthly, C) yearly base. In such quite possible case silver should at least rally into 18$ weekly 2nd double arc resistance upmagnet until end of October 2019!