It is always strange and has to be taken with a large grain of salt when the days before and after the new quarter the stock markets/stocks receive such a broad ramping. This points largely to Q2=>Q3 window dressing effects. Appears artificially.
At the very least, however, there are considerable doubts whether the on a widely base fired near-term buy signals or bull market continuation signals are really sustainable as the Independence Day week mostly is an overdone bullish time window.
The current US stock market assessment can best be explained with the situation in which the small caps have manoeuvred itself. IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF Index Fund main support has just barely held at recent test which ended past week Monday. There is a significant daily close below the rising 1*1 Bull Market Support Angle what usually has softened this major 2020 uptrend support.
But the first 2 trading days of the Independence Day bull week have fired baby bull candles, followed by 2 trading days which made higher highs, higher lows, but closed in red, barely defending the 1*1 Bull Market Support Angle on closing base. Each of the past 3 trading days has tested 1*1 Bull Market Angle from above and to the T at lows:
The 1*1 Bull Market Angle acts as rising main support on yearly base!, so far! This 1*1 Gann Angle springs from the lowest price of the year. That`s why it is actually a rising support on yearly base.
The above at year low anchored daily GUNNER24 Up Setup measures the 2020 bounce cycle from absolute low of the year to the final high of the bounce that is printed on bounce day # 57.
Then and there influenced by the 55 Fib turn number the bounce topped finally and this triggered the pullback/correction/overall sideways range which run the entire June and what tested the Blue Arc from below at past week highs.
Blue Arc represents natural daily & weekly & monthly & yearly resistance! And actually it's gonna be pretty easy now: Either the more or less sideways trend dissolves upwards or downwards after the current test of the Blue Arc main resistance.
There are fundamental reasons for each of the two outcomes. Bullish outcome might come true cause the Fed supports the markets with free money and perhaps the 1*1 Bull Market Angle triggered a new daily & weekly upcycle at last successful test of the 1*1 Bull Angle lost motion.
Or, the seasonal aspects and GUNNER24 Blue Arc main resistance continue to reign. And these together and sighting that also DIA and QQQ ETF`s look ripe for another down cycle point generally lower US stock markets for the rest of July...
... and well, I suppose, the next daily IWM close below 1*1 Bull Market Angle main uptrend support until next Wednesday finally confirms that the downer for the first test of the 1*2 Gann Angle near 122$ in further course of July has started. Early bears on Monday should sell short the next test of Blue Arc at around 144.50$.
Also DIA ETF (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF corresponds to the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Index = Dow Jones) reached prior confirmed 2020 GUNNER24 Main Resistance Arc on Thursday and therefore AT THE SAME TIME should have peaked together with IWM and QQQ:
This above at # 1 // 2020 Low anchored Low/High GUNNER24 is a next beauty regarding price <=> time merger since 2020 bounce high 1000% accurately arrived at natural uptarget of upper line of 1st double arc on day # 54 of bounce. Final bounce top was caused by 55 Fib number. As bounce top was at upper line of 1st double arc from below this arc became natural strong resistance on daily & weekly & monthly, but also on yearly base (lower high on yearly base).
And when the upper line of a double arc is confirmed as important usually also the other line of that double arc will have some importance to the price/for the future.
This arc 1000% EXACTLY kicked in at past week high what at same time tested back the 1*1 Bear Angle out of # 54-bounce top for the very first time. This means that the DIA ETF top of past week found double resistance magnet on daily base and maybe even on combined yearly base (as 1*1 Bear Angle springs from lower high on yearly base) and this event is usually a stronger bearish signal what invites us to sell short the next test of the lower line of 1st/1*1 Bear Angle double resistance!!
==> In an ideal world the DIA ETF on Monday opens close below Thursday highs and near the Thursday open near 261$, only to begin the main trend of the next week shortly after the official opening auction of the week and printing final week highs near 261$ tomorrow.
Afterwards more or less selecting one of the 2 dark-red dotted arrow downward scenarios for the activated = usually necessary very first test of the Yearly 1*1 Bull Market Angle what might be finally worked off towards end of July 2020 near the 243$ or much more bullish at the round 250$.
I try a short in QQQ also! QQQ (PowerShares QQQ ETF) corresponds to the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index:
Rarely we are allowed to experience such a powerful & magnificent upward chasing and in addition unusually steep parabolic pattern as for the QQQ ETF. This pattern exists in the weekly and in the daily charts. It is best seen and tradable on daily base:
This parabolic and elliptical double arc will continue to reign with all its rally power until the bears generate a first significant WEEKLY closing price or two consecutive daily closings below the dark-green dotted elliptical arc.
Not 1 SINGLE day close below that parabolic, elliptical support has been triggered since the printed 2020 lows! The red-dotted elliptical resistance has exactly the same bend as the parabolic support. I copied the support rail 1:1, and only moved it to the left and a little bit to the upside to nail all the recent important higher rally highs.
So the parabolic 2020 rally is developing accurately and very tightly defined within an elliptical double arc which began to flatten out. What somehow seems to fit nicely with this seasonal conspicuousness of the NASDAQ indexes:
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971!
You recognize it by your own: After a 3 pushes higher pattern in the daily chart, what is a strong signal of a final bullish exhaustion underway, Thursday fresh printed alltime-high again found parabolic, elliptical resistance rail. Because such a re-test of main resistance has already led to quick and sharp daily down swings back to the parabolic arc support the last two times we can be quite safe that the QQQ now aims the parabolic arc support again!
==> Also the World Champion Stock Index looks heavy-short for the entire next week.
In an ideal trading world the QQQ on Monday would open with a bullish gap, but shy below Thursday alltime-highs, only to start the main trend of the next week shy after the official open of the week. Hmm, hmm, expect the next test of the 2020 parabolic support arc near 243.50$ towards Friday, maybe Monday after next.
Please also be prepare for the outcome that IF the parabolic arc support breaks finally the next few days, that at least for some time the bear hell might be unleashed as this major 2020 support break might lead to a really heavy 3 to 5 days lasting bear panic = sell-off!