Now some true dramas are observed in the Basic Materials sector. In the negative sense. The main reason is probably that Dr. Copper is about to lose an important support rail on yearly base.
Within TOTD alert of February 16, we`ve looked on Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) shares for the last time. Then a stong monthly buy signal was active and we entered the bull wagon at a 40.20$ for the no brainer uptarget of 45.35$:
At that time we recognized the very bullish looking bottoming formation which developed after the prior bull market highs achieved in May 2021. A Rounded Bottom formation radiated strong yearly support and this energy state in further course should lead to a serious backtest of the 2021 bull market highs - at a minimum.
As of today, however, the picture has changed by 180 degrees. If the Copper Stocks still looked extremely bullish a few weeks ago, during the week they joined the bear market camp. We witness the final bull market collapse:
The final loss of the long-term dark-green dotted Rounded Support and the negative, accurate back test of that yearly support rail, 2 week candles ago triggered a sell-off cycle which should continue until the nearest strongest yearly support (rising dark-green line) of the Copper Stocks ETF has been met or is tested back.
==> Rapid shortterm downtarget of the COPX ETF is the 26.00$ area within weeks and yeah, it might be worked off even within just a few days. However, usually, the 26$ yearly support rail should be tested in course of coming July 2022.
However, the main trigger for the now official bear market is - as is so often the case - a textbook Double Top signal:
The bull market highs of 2021 and 2022 form a Double Top pattern on year high base and on a monthly base. The week has lost the naturally given strong support of the Double Top Neckline at 33$ surroundings, activating the all-important bear market downtarget of the 200-week MA (moving average), which for coming July also runs - surprise, surprise -, at the 26$ environment!
==> The rising 200-week MA should offer future strong main support on a yearly base. The 200-week MA is most attractive sell-off downtarget at below and together with the rising yearly support rail it forms future MAJOR support magnet on yearly base at the 27$ to 25$!
Please, expect the 27$ to 25$ yearly support magnet work off within weeks!
I derive this highly probable result from this weekly 5-Fib number Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup which illustrates the current bear power of the COPX sell-off cycle very nicely:
The setup starts measuring to the downside at # 1 // 47.22$ // April 2022 bull market high. Chosen scaling should fit nicely also for the foreseeable future, as the lower high of downtrend week No. 3 is the 100% accurate negative backtest of the important 1*1 Gann Angle from below.
This negative backtest of the always important 1*1 Gann Angle rail was a very negative one as downtrend week # 3 delivered an unusual-long red body. Or, the # 3-close was probably the first serious indication that something could go wrong also with this market.
As I see it, the real drama began with the negative gap opening of the 11th bear market week, because with this event the extremely important mathematically given support of the Blue Arc was probably taken out.
The # 11-open sell signal is acting extremely strong bearish, as this week candle traded below BOTH! the natural support area of the 1st double arc and the support of the highlighted, anturally anchorable Gann Angle. Finally on Friday the COPX shares closed within the lines of the 1st double arc support environment what is bearish signal to expect the downtrend continuation. The close within the lines of the 1st double arc is the next stronger sell signal on the weekly chart!
==> The future yearly support magnet of 26$ is in full harmony to the natural and now activated GUNNER24 Downtarget of the upper line of the 2nd double arc! Rapid shortterm downtarget is 26.00$!
It might be the outcome that the uber-bearish # 11-open triggered a 5 to maybe 7-weekslong PANIC SELL-OFF cycle which with the coming week candle should be in the 3rd week of the cycle. This offers that the upper line of 2nd downtarget and 26$ support magnet will be/has to be worked off sometime July 2022!
On Friday and into official week close the backtest of the 1st double arc took place. Thus, the price factor should have already reached its Gentleman`s sell-short entry point!
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