At the beginning of 2021 and fired by the turn of the year time event we unfortunately had to recognise that gold delivered a classic bull trap and produced an important countertrend top very early in the year.
In course of March 2021 the MAJOR YEARLY GUNNER24 Support Horizontal at 1672$ was nearly exactly backtested and out of a daily and small weekly Double Bottom combination the gold started a nice uptrend what at May & June highs retested the 11-month candle main resistance.
The monthly Handle resistance is a relatively steep rail. It is AT SAME TIME alltime-high (ATH) resistance and a lower year highs resistance til today and would only be finally overcome with a monthly close above 1915$ or so.
Because of the probably again violently acting Handle resistance, I recommended end of May to close gold long positions above the 1900$ cause it should retrace next into 1822$ MAJOR YEARLY GUNNER24 Support Horizontal and maybe even into round 1800$ support number:
But what the heck is going on with gold right now as it sold off -116$ within just 1 week? Is this an exaggeration as it is not unusual to see a couple of hard down days to shake out all the weak hands? Or are we seeing something unexpected very bearish?
Now for the big picture. Back on July 26nd of past year (click...), I showed and analyzed this classic monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup, starting measuring to the upside at blue 1-final 2015 Bear Market Low for the last time.
Bull market months # 56-July, # 57-August what is month the new alltime-high = ATH is made at 2089.2$, and # 58-September 2020 found main resistance at natural GUNNER24 Uptarget of the 3rd double arc automatically out of 2015 Bear Market Low.
Cause these final 2020 highs together with highest monthly close ever (# 56-July-1 = 55) were influenced by the major time magnet Fib number 55 there and then the time factor has met price factor of the 3rd double arc resistance and thus the trend changed from strong bull to corrective.
Because nothing else should be the movement that has now extended over 11 month candles since ATH. A longerlasting correction cycle within a still reigning yearslong secular bull market.
So this yearslong gold bull market continues it`s Fib Number craziness:
==> 8-Fib number top marked first important bull market top.
==> 13-Fib number low meant the first major higher low of the bull.
==> 21-Fib number top was long-lasting bull market extreme.
==> 33-Low, what is oriented to the 34 Fib number meant the last major higher low of the bull, before the next major major bull market low of March 2020!
==> 56 - 1 = 55 Fib number delivered highest monthly gold close ever.
==> 57-ATH, is oriented to the 55 Fib number.
The lower line of 3rd above has morphed to multi-confirmed main resistance of a now 11-monthslong Handle correction. The lower line of 3rd and the entire 3rd double arc are at same time ATH resistance, falling lower month high resistance and lower year high resistance as final high of 2020 and so far 2021 top were cemented at lower line of 3rd/entire 3rd range.
On daily and weekly charts it is best seen that the try to break the lower line of 3rd and 11-month Handle resistance at May and this June 2021 highs was just the SECOND serious attempt of overcoming this major resistance stuff. Based on chart technical experience, it was almost impossible to run above such MAJOR CONCRETE at a second attempt as such sharp-confirmed hard resistances tend to break finally only at third, fourth or even fifth attempt (rule of 3 and 4...). And well, this rule of 3 and 4 was the main reason for the last recommendation to exit all gold longs, respectively to reduce gold longs considerably above 1900$/end of May 2021...
The so far 11-month Handle made it`s lows March 2021 at a 1673.3$. This low was influenced by the 1672$ MAJOR GUNNER24 Support Horizontal and well, cause March 2021 is the 8th Fib number month of the Handle and the March 2021 has arrived at a MAJOR support and very ideal yearly backtest magnet we should still believe that the March 2021 Low has to be the final low of the entire monthslong Handle as there 8 Fib number time magnet perfectly tested back yearly support = MAJOR 1622$ horizontal price magnet!
Looking ahead, the gold bulls are definitely battered. Not only have larger sell signals been triggered with the -116$ drop in just 5 days, most concerning to me is that an ideal backtest support area of the May low and open sitting at 1765$ to 1768$ became broken on weekly closing base with Friday`s 1763.9$. We know the 1765$ to 1768$ must be closely and nearly ideally linked to the MAJOR 1772$ GUNNER24 Support Horizontal.
And giving up that MAJOR 1772$ support on a weekly closing base – even if it was "only a quadruple witching Friday`s" GUNNER24 Sell Signal, which we always have to interpret quite sceptically, because perhaps not sustainable enough – it is still what has officially activated.
==> The about 65% odd is that the gold
should continue to drop into 1715$ to 1722$ during this panic cycle.
That`s the new forecast, triggered by last week very bearish surprise
when trading significantly below the 1772$!
And IF the 1722$ ends up falling decisively, either at the official June close or at the official July closing auction, then A) gold usually should correct further and is poised to deliver B) lower 2021 lows within the August to September 2021 time horizon and in addition C) will likely need to backtest the 1*1 Bull Market Angle AGAIN within the August-September 2021, to perhaps meet the next ideal backtest of the most important support of the entire bull market cycle, as last seen at the most important higher bull market coronavirus-spike low of March 2020.
The likelihood has rising that the final Handle low could well come in at the MAJOR future price/time magnet formed by the 1*1 Bull Market Angle & then Handle month No. 13-Fib number August 2021!
By the way, for anyone who is really interested in forecasting decisions, you can read here again why the 1022, 1122, 1222, 1322, 1422, 1522, 1622, 1722, 1822, 1922, 2022 etc. are ALWAYS so existential important for the future price determination of gold...
The week close below 1772$ officially activated the next test of the MAJOR 1722$ GUNNER24 Horizontal Support what together with the monthly 1715$ horizontal, which naturally forms out of the highest price of the lower line of 2nd double arc, forms unusual attractive combined monthly and yearly TRIPLE support magnet.
Both, the yearly 1722$ and the monthly 1715$ horizontals have been finally overcome at the 2020 close. That`s why 1722$-1715$ is natural ideal backtest magnet below. But there is another yearly support stuff coming into play for this June and this is the green-lined rising Gann Angle support, I named "2021 Main Support Angle".
This angle is rising monthly closing base support since January 2020. It was defended on monthly closing base at official March 2020 close, so it has held during the literally most bearish gold month ever recognized. At April 2020 low it radiated pinpoint month low support and last but not least it offered combined yearly & monthly low support at March 2021 lows, the current year lows.
1722$-1715$ now is most ideal backtest magnet for gold, there runs future TRIPLE support formed by the horizontals and the 2021 Main Support Angle. Such in the past very good confirmed strong supports tend to hold usually and this is why we should expect that the gold sell-off should end at that 1722$-1715$ range at latest and IF indeed getting tested in further course of June to maybe early-July, followed by the next strong weekly upcycle what again should re-test the lower line of 3rd at a minimum. This is the dark-green dotted up arrow forecast.
There were also serious problems on the daily chart with the break below 1772$, what is MAJOR GUNNER24 Horizontal Support on yearly base, but is or maybe was natural daily support environment on daily base:
The real question remains: Is this quad witching sell signal a really serious bear signal? Or is it a classic bear trap what perhaps found final panic cycle lows at Friday`s 1761.2$ low point?
Within daily 4 Candle down starting at the 1919.2$-June top (influenced by MAJOR 1922$ GUNNER24 Horizontal and the old year 2011 ATH made at the 1923.7$) Friday closed below the 3rd double arc support and this officially activated the gold should continue to drop into next lower double arc which is the 4th double arc and nicely fits to the for June 2021 existing MAJOR 1715$-1722$ TRIPLE support. So, the daily time frame sell signal adds to the outcome A) the 1715$-1722$ should be hit soon and B) usually will hold strongly, perhaps triggering a very hard & swift bounce into round 1800$ backtest resistance area (dark-green dotted arrow outcome).
If 1715$-1722$ fails to hold within this panic cycle – or/and at June close – the price of gold should rapidly test back MAJOR 1672$ support horizontal and daily 5th double arc main correction down target and of course then in further course is allowed to print lower year lows sometime in course of August to September 2021...
Think, the backtest of the 1*1 Resistance Angle and another natural Gann Resistance Angle at correction day # 9 - 1 = 8 Fib number triggered a rare panic or sell-off cycle on the daily chart!
Within GUNNER24 Down Setups the 1*1 Angles are always the most strongest resistances out of an important top and sometimes negative 1*1 testing can trigger bear panic events. As a main rule bullish as bearish panic cycles usually tend to run for only 7 to 12 trading days. See the possible panic cycle count that with quad witching Friday is at the # 6. Monday will be day 7 of a probaly running bear panic cycle which when they occure in strong bull markets, as the gold shows one, usually only have the main task to shake off all the weaker bulls.
Tomorrow Monday June 21, is summer solstice. A natural major time influencer for often very important extremes in the commodity markets. Triple witching Friday is day 14 of the correction, thus possibly directly oriented/influenced to the 14 - 1 = 13 Fib number time item.
So, I of course don't know it for sure, but this past week Friday into tomorrow Monday June 21 smells definitely like there could be an existing time cluster which allows that the Friday close below 1772$ was a classic bear trap and the 1715$-1722$ MAJOR backtest magnet will not reached within the running panic cycle which with coming Friday would be at day # 11.
Or, tomorrow Monday June 21 time event marks the final end of the panic cycle which then would be also at usually minimum time target of a regular panic event, the day # 7.
There is another main experiance for traders as far as these panic cycles are concerned. Usually well confirmed and strong supports and resistances have no or very little effectiveness in these panic phases, are overrun in a very short time finally or supports break like thin twigs.
==> So, IF the 1715$-1722$ combined yearly & monthy TRIPLE support magnet = at same time nearest ideal backtest target, is now reached swiftly, perhaps Monday to Tuesday, I must make the urgent call not to jump blindly into new gold longs! I would sit tight and would first watch very closely how gold would behave at the 1715$-1722$ in order to then decide with much greater conviction where the journey could continue in the shorter term.