In recent days I have been reading carefully that a stable oil prices above the 120$ threshold would have to force the US into a recession and I seriously wonder what will then happen to the economy of the US and the world if crude oil begins to target the round 200$ next, which for longer is THE! activated GUNNER24 Uptarget on an annual base.
At least the surprisingly „high inflation", attributed primarily to „higher than average" high energy prices because of the war and Russia/Putin, rather than the insane printing press follies in the coronavirus year 2020, now provides the perfect excuses for the US stock markets to drop.
At the same time, the US markets are merely following their seasonality, which has been known for a long time and is dictated by the cycles resp. former cycle events.
They continue to track the seasonal trend of midterm election years, especially the two more ominous patterns of 1st term midterm years and the 2nd year of new Democratic presidents with important late Q2 lows and a retest or lower low in October!
Source: Jeff Hirsch, the Almanac Trader
The above S&P 500 index midterm year pattern highlights June`s midterm weakness. Since 1950 June is the worst Dow Jones Industrial & S&P 500 month and second worst for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Please watch it very carfully, that the selling tends to accelerate later in the month in conjunction with Triple Witching!
American Airlines (AAL) is the largest airline in the world in terms of revenue passenger mile, scheduled passengers carried, and fleet size. On average, American Airlines flies approximately 500.000 passengers each day and over 200 million passengers annually.
AAL shares have lost -10.85% for the week, showing a close at 14.42$. With this rather bearish signal, IMHO, it is now finally clear that the shares are trapped in a sharper decline cycle and will therefore seriously test their current annual low support from March within the next few weeks or days and, according to the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method, will even undercut it with almost certainty!
Today`s charts show only the monthly developments and deal with the current health state of the stock &&& provide the somewhat broader GUNNER24 Expectations for AAL which appear extraordinarily bleak, strongly supporting my advise to dump and/or sell-short AAL shares with both hands for longer immediately:
Since the beginning of 2021, the stock price is trapped in a fairly well-defined Parallel Downward Channel. The market is thus still digesting the rather steep = sharp rally cycle that started at coronavirus low of March 2020. The upcycle out of 2020 coronavirus low was just another bear market rally.
Since the last negative test of the dark-red dotted Channel Resistance the situation is becoming more and more negative and almost certainly the determining dark-green dotted Channel Support rail will be approached soon.
Monthly Slow Stokes and MACD simoultaneously are getting very bearish now, and if the next sell signals, which are currently emerging on a longer-term basis, are to prevail, this Airline Stock is prime for a heavy crash.
I have this classic 13-Fib number candle up for the 2022 and beyond price forecast. This and the next monthly GUNNER24 Up Setup begin their forecast at at the # 1 // Bear Market Low of March 2020. The March 2020 low is also the lowest price this share has ever achieved:
AAL shares are now finally losing their W.D. Gann main support rail which has held the enitre year 2022 and what is represented by the famous 1*1 Support Angle.
So far there has been NO SINGLE monthly close below this rising main support since 2020 up to 2022, although almost every trading month of this year tried to close below the 1*1 Main Support. But the bearish momentum probably begins to prevail, as just worked out above!, and this is why we should recon with A) a serious backtest of the so far 2022 lows downmagnet within weeks (dark-red arrow forecast)! The AAL shares are now dropping below their most important support of the life-time low!
B) Thus becomes official that the AAL shares have begun a fresh, new and usually many months lasting bear cycle. Which - normally in this case -, should bring some more lower life-time lows!
C)) The next important W.D. Gann Angle below the always most important support within an upsetup - the natural 1*1 Gann Angle -, is of course the 1*2 Gann Angle and this future main support baby unites with 2022 lows support magnet for the coming weeks at the combined monthly & yearly 12.50$ downmagnet.
=> The so far 2022 low point stands at 12.44$ and was printed in March. The 1*2 Main Support Angle unites with 2022 lows support environment at 12.50$ for the coming July candle. ==> Necessary shortterm downtarget for this airline seems to be the serious backtest of 2022 lows at 12.50$!
There is another very-valid GUNNER24 Up Setup existing. It also starts measuring to the upside at # 1 // 2020 Bear Market Low and is an elliptical up setup. With its help, we suddenly recognize the true main resistance of the +2-yearslong countertrend. An elliptical Blue Arc on yearly base is ruling ...:
The very last negative test of a natural elliptical Blue Arc resistance was at the 2022 Top. Thus, the bearish importance of Blue Arc was confirmed for about the 6th, 7th time. Above all, this negative test indicates that this above elliptical Blue Arc should now have mutated to a future main resistance. To a future resistance arc threshold on year high base whose effectiveness could last until the beginning of 2025, then wenn it is intersecting the time axis. In an extreme case, this Blue Arc could hold back the price for years.
However, the proven powerful downward oriented resistance of this Blue Arc party pooper could well lead to further secular bear market lows & life-time lows. Such state of affairs could well last until the year 2025!
The next clearer future monthly close above this elliptical Blue Arc could mean THE real deal serious long signal. But only maybe ..., because the only 2 monthly closing above the Blue Arc have not triggered a sustainable run!
The likelihood is that the April 2022 Top at 21.42$ marks the final high of this year 2022!
Also this stock should deliver the final lows of 2022 sometime in the September to November time window.
==> A plausibel monthly downtarget for summer 2022 is the above 1*2 Main Support Angle at the 11.70$ or so!
Sell-short the bounces and countertrend rips til the summer downtarget is reached. In the next few days, the monthly resistance near 16$ offers a perfect entry!
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