Most recently, the next small higher 6-month-cycle gold low has been worked out to arrive at the beginning of June. So far, gold declined into the important 1281.20$ downtrend low, but this current 2018 low was settled in the month of May on the 21st. It does not really fit with my cycle works of 04/29:
The gold was expected to reach at least 1300$-1295$ at 6-month-cycle low which should be due for early June and well, since 1281.20$ May low a bounce has developed in the daily and weekly charts. But the 3-week bounce out of 2018 low is just a basic one and above all, since then, more bearish than bullish signs have developed in the weekly chart. Namely a weekly Bear Flag with downtarget 1272$! And the 1272$ is known as BIG SUPPORT existing in the monthly as well as in the yearly chart. And important supports are always magnets for the price.
The monthly Gold futures chart has been sideways for 5 months after a January 2018 (Jan18) GUNNER24 Buy Signal that closed first time above Blue Arc resistance within 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up:
A final close above long-term lasting resistance just as the Blue Arc was for the at # 1 // 2015 Bear Market Low started multi-year uptrend is usually always a bullish continuation signal. Here, however with the Jan18 long signal at the same time a period or unknown long cycle was triggered which has set itself the task to test back the prior finally upwards broken Blue Arc intensively.
Thats why the gold is more or less sideways in 2018.
Really ideal and exceptionally textbook-wise, the gold tested back this for a potentially upcoming next multi-month upleg important former Blue Arc resistance rail at May 2018 low. The 2018 low additionally tested back the most important bull market support out of 2015 Bear Market Low which is green-highlighted 1*1 Bull Market Angle.
Means 2018 low has arrived at big support magnet, formed by prior Blue Arc resistance now falling support and prior 3x very successfully tested 1*1 Bull Market Angle.
==> And it additionally means that a final low of a trading year could not be more ideal that with such an important support magnet existing in the combined monthly and yearly time frame.
But wee all see it. Instead of rallying out of 1*1 Bull Market Angle support or bouncing at falling Blue Arc support, the gold stayed flat the recent 3 weeks and trades up to day near its most important bull market support. Its using 1*1 Bull Market Angle as June 2018 low support.
Gold has formed a 3-week Bear Flag on weekly base! what is obvious bearish development and thus points lower in general! Quiet, very interesting is the fact that for the June 2018 candle the Blue Arc support precisely is at 1272$. Weekly Bear Flag has a chart-technical downtarget at 1272$!!! and last but not least 1272$ MEGA SUPPORT HORIZONTAL is always most ideal backtest magnet.
What I show you next is chart porn:
This is a 22 Candle up out of # 1 // 2015 Bear Market low. So, setup measures upwards into one of the most important highs of recent bull made at a 5-year resistance. It measures into Sept17 cycle high. Sept17 high also is final high of 2017. You know: 22 - 1 is 21 and this is important Fib turn number.
In this case, the 21 has telegraphed possible very important top caused by the 21 Fib number. So, setup is really important for the future development of gold and we should use it for estimating the trend and future signaling.
==> Entire 2018 the Blue Arc acts as closing base resistance on monthly base. See June 2018 candle. Month high at Blue Arc resistance from below. Blue Arc is sharp defined resistance now. Month low is to the T at usually strong holding 1*1 Bull Market Angle.
This is next breakout mode setup in the monthly time frame. Enormous sell or buy signal is due!
Blue Arc is at 1307.80$, 1*1 Bull Market Angle is at 1293.10$. Accordingly, a month close above Blue Arc should be a very strong buy signal with target 1360$-1370$.
A month close below 1293.10$ could mean that gold has to test the than activated Possible 1*2 Downtarget Angle near 1200$ in further course of 2018. IF 1*1 Bull Market Angle were lost on monthly closing base, that would be a nasty surprise and a BIG SELL SIGNAL cause 1*1 Bull Market Angle is multi-successful rising support on yearly base!
Like the vast majority of gold analysts, me and GUNNER24 are generally bullish gold into next year. We analysts expect pretty much all that the support of this almost famous triangle will hold in the end or at current test although the momentum is totally neutral from my point of view. And all that reminds me of the important rule that "90% of the mass is always wrong..."!
Such strong bullish unity among gold analysts and gold chartists is a bit obvious, rarely happens and makes me a little nervous when I review my forecast:
==> Within days and caused by next week FOMC rate hike time event down into another lower 2018 low and into 1272$ BIG SUPPORT MAGNET. This should be just a false break of yearly triangle support and yearly 1*1 Bull Market Angle support initiated by the Big Banks who are likely to use a false break to buy at really most important Bull Market support of 2018 which should be the 1272$ GUNNER24 Support Horizontal. Such 1 push lower into 1272$ should mark:
A. The next small higher 6-month-cycle low.
B. The final low of 2018.
C. Is the starting point for the next 2 to 3 months lasting 90$-100$ upleg which would have to reach again 5-year resistance at 1360$-1370$ surroundings.
Enjoy and be prepared!