The long-lasting, tedious sideways move of gold is typical for this season. Quite similar did it proceed last year already before it dropped -130$. Or in 2017 as it declined -76 US$ into 2017 summer doldrums lows.
For 6 long weeks, the bulls and the bears have been fighting for the yearly 1272$ GUNNER24 Support Magnet horizontal without prevailing one party or the other.
For 6 weeks, the major 1272$ is now successfully tested from above. Without giving up so far on monthly, weekly or daily closing base.
The last 6 gold continuous futures contract (GC #) closings on weekly base are as follows:
1276$, 1288.4$, 1281.3$, 1286.8$, 1275.6$ and 1284.3$.
The current 2019 Low is seen at 1267.3$ and is printed May 2 at 1267.3$. How critically striking the 1272$ is also defended on a daily closing base, we understand in this series:
04/23 close = 1273.2$
05/02 close = 1272.00$
05/21 close = 1273.2$
05/22 close = 1274.2$
Since the overriding downtrend keeps being intact, naturally the bears clearly remain at an advantage however, eying the yearly 1222$ GUNNER24 Support Magnet that with a 80% probability will be worked off until end of July 2019:
Above, you see yet again a monthly setup on gold. For months, I’ve been saving the work of analyzing the monthly time frame, because, of course, it’s negative, but without being able to testify the bears to have a big momentum.
Today, I’m going to make good for it, because the traditional weakest phase for gold begins within days, so that we can expect the imminent final support break of the yearly 1272$ horizontal magnet in the near future.
This means in succession a very strong sell signal activating the next = third backtest of 1*2 Support Angle out of important year # 1 // 2008 Bear Market Low which was first time successfully tested at # 87-2015 Bear Market Low (close to 89 Fibonacci turn number) and last but not least with pinpoint accuracy at the recently marked # 119-final low of last year …
… and likely the 1*2 Support Angle will be tested within traditionally weak summer months and usually then and there where yearly 1222$ GUNNER24 Support Horizontal Magnet units with 1*2 Support Angle at round about 1218$ to 1222$ for entire July 2019.
Calculate!: important 1*2 Angle support began to work in course of 2008 and was tested to the T at # 119-final low of 2018, thus this angle is confirmed and rising strong support in the DECADE TIME FRAME.
And that`s why a 1222$ until July 2019 just would mean the next textbook backtest of combined yearly & DECADE GUNNER24 Support Magnet.
Such magnets tend to hold strongly and tend to trigger major turns, which in the further course should lead to the gold turning up again.
If 1222$ will be decisively broken on monthly closing base in course of summer 2019 the gold should retest year 2018 low environment, respective the 1222$ - 50$ = 1172$ GUNNER24 Support Horizontal towards the end of 2019! … at least ...
Such heavy bear option may well arrive cause # 125-2019 topping candle and next March and April, as the May 2019 candle obviously found stronger falling resistance at lower line of 2nd double arc rail which is natural or circular arc resistance 100% harmoniously directly connected to the alltime-highs (ATH`s) of 2011.
See count above how most important gold turn ever was signaled in advance, cause 34 Fibonacci number was respected at # 35 and # 36-gold ATH`s …
Unfortunately for all the bulls, the # 125-February-2019 candle as well as any of the next ones respect the downwards-sloping lower line of 2nd double arc ATH rail very accurately without violating the arc resistance by large at their individual lower month highs & lower month closings and lower month openings ==> this offers that lower line of 2nd double arc ATH resistance plans to radiate resistance for a long, long, long time.
In the worst case for the bulls until lower line of 2nd double arc ATH runs out according the time which is the case in January 2021. Then the still pending 1000$ backtest might come true? Who knows for sure ...
Actually the thrilling question that remains is just: When will the trip into the 1272$ - 50$ = 1222$ GUNNER24 Threshold go on?! Soon it will get going, I think, if we consider these seasonality patterns:
Above is the average course of the gold futures contract of the past 20 years. Well, in 2019 gold has been adhering to this pattern nicely! A strong January rally, followed by important cycle highs or current 2019 High made in February, afterwards getting weaker and more or less sideways into May!
With the last May week, a statistically bearish cycle starts! Keyword summer doldrums!
Traditionally, June is the worst month for gold! Naturally, the summer doldrums course of every year is always a little different. However, by no means the seasonal component in the sight of the coming months should be disregarded.
The pattern above implies weakness from the fourth full trading week of May through late-July.
Perhaps for 5 more trading days gold might be supported positively, according to the seasonal patterns. So, still a brief (time) false upwards-move, starting from the current 1284$ area is supposed or allowed to occur.
Within still valid weekly 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup, starting at 2018 Low, gold generally quotes – STILL – just shy below lower line of 2nd double arc resistance that is now well-confirmed = major strong and nearest resistance for gold on a weekly base.
Since 9 candles the gold is respecting that downwards-oriented resistance of the lower line of 2nd double arc, firing a series of lower week highs and lower week lows and lower week openings and lower week closings = 2019 downtrend cycle.
The previously very negative tested space between lower line of 2nd double arc and upper line of 2nd double arc is allowed to be tested back but is responsible main resistance area for the lower gold-weeks since 2019 Top that is – up to day – just a next lower high on yearly base made at heavy overall Bear Market Resistance.
That`s why a next week possible and for sure allowed false upwards-move might even reach 1295$ to Big Round 1300$ major resistance before the awaited 2019 summertime sadness drop into 1222$ might start according the "always seen" seasonal weakness into end of July 2019.
This weekly 3 Candle setup or the weekly time frame provides in advance that according The Price Factor the gold market could test – until today not finally activated - 1*2 Angle or 1*2 Angle down magnet that takes course at 1218$ to about 1222$ then when the two lines of the 1st double arc are intersecting the x-axis or time factor from July 1 and July 31. For this possibly very important future Time Factor Attraction watch the two orange-dashed verticals.
==> We write down that 1st double arc run out time signal fits with a 100% sync to the 20-year pattern that important downtrend lows are usually printed during the course of July.
==> Weekly 1*2 Angle above, possible very attractive downmagnet might be tested to the T in the future cause 1*1 Bull Market Angle was tested to the T at important higher week low during 2019 uptrend cycle!
==> at 1218$ to 1222$ is combined weekly 1*2 Angle & yearly 1222$ GUNNER24 Horizontal & year 2008-2018 DECADE 1*2 Angle support for entire July 2019! At same time BIG, BIG support and BIG, BIG downmagnet for the gold futures contract!
==> On the other hand, ONLY TWO consecutive weekly closings above 1310$-1308$ (nearest yearly resistance) until the end of July 2019 are likely to signal that in the further course of 2019 the 1349.8$ 2019 High should be tested back in a very serious way, … at least ...