In the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of 04/30/2017 "Nasty NASDAQ" I committed myself in the most intensive way to the pending short- and long-term NASDAQ-100 horizon.
Back then among other things I summed up the following, concerning the further course of the stock markets in 2017 respectively concerning the NASDAQ-100 till 2019:
"After the enormously bullish development of the tech stocks during the first quarter and the generated long-term GUNNER24 Buy Signals in the monthly time frame, we’ll also have to say goodbye to the idea that a stronger (>10%) and longer-term (longer than 3 months) interim correction in the Western stock market indexes (US & EU) might newly happen in 2017.
==> GUNNER24 Prediction: The EU & US stock market indexes will deliver a flawless uptrend year 2017, having been made the year lows just at the beginning, hence in January 2017 and the year highs being supposed to be produced by the end of 2017. Most likely in the month of December!"
==> "The NASDAQ-100 bull might resp. should have to last through February 2019!, that is the # 55-bull market month. Correspondingly, due to the positive price performance of the first 4 months of this year, some exorbitantly high price targets were activated. Almost for sure seems to be the duplication of the NASDAQ-100 till 2019!
GUNNER24 Method forecasts 10.000 NASDAQ-100 index points until 2019!"
Thus, for the Big Picture we are MEGA-bullish until 2019!
By the end of April, in the short-term perspective in the "Nasty NASDAQ" forecast, however I expected an important intermediate top in the course of the prognosticated turning-point month of May (21st respectively 22nd month of the bull cycle starting at the final low of 2015), which should have reached 5625 points anyway but rather should be laying at least around 5670 points.
Further activated magnets for the upcoming first important 2017 high were resp. are A) the natural 5725-GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance, resp. B) the upper line of the 2nd double arc at 5860, that under certain conditions could have been reached at the expected intermediate # 22-May top.
On Tuesday, the index reached its new year high at 5724.75 pts before a day later the broader US stock markets due to the growing Trump-impeachment fears opened with a large downside gap furthermore finishing Wednesday with the highest daily loss in 2017.
Now as two important conditions occurred permitting the beginning of the summer corrections within the predicted deadline:
A) An existing natural bull-market target, being simultaneously resistance of this bull run was pinpoint worked off ==> the 5725-GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance.
And B) IMMEDIATELY after this horizontal being worked off a strong, very hefty negative reaction to this horizontal ensued confirming again its existence and importance…
…so it makes sense to go more intensely into the necessary sell signal that is supposed to confirm as third step the alleged start of the summer correction!!
In the next chart follows the actualized monthly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up effective Friday close at 5651.56 index pts:
NOT BEFORE the # 22-May candle closes visibly under the lower line of the 2nd double arc, the important and technical confirmation will be there that the # 22-May top is matter of an important intermediate bull market high the market thereby already being situated in the red-dotted-arrow scenario.
Since at the very first test the NASDAQ-100 reacted very negatively (on the quick it went deeply downwards) to the monthly uptarget of the 5725-GUNNER24 Horizontal thus confirming the potentially high resistance power of the 5725, now the 5725 may even represent a horizontal resistance in the important yearly time frame. Sure… because – if that’s where the summer correction began the May 2017 top is at least matter of the final high of the first half year 2017!
For the present month of May, the lower line of the 2nd double arc resistance takes its course at 5725 pts. To be quite positive that the summer correction is in fact underway, all the bearish-tuned traders should at least await the corresponding signals of the May close before perhaps being willing to put money into short-engagements.
A May close above 5625 doesn’t deliver any GUNNENR24 Sell Signal in the monthly time frame. Such a close above the lower line of the 2nd double arc is au contraire another but weaker monthly buy signal suggesting that the 5725 pts want to be tested again and even exceeded… thereby possibly the upper line of the 2nd at about 5855 being on the agenda in # 23-June…
... A May close above 5625 will be a first clue that there will be no "deeper" summer correction! And only smooth pullbacks keep on being allowed in the weekly time frame.
A May close below 5620 and above 5600 is a – let’s say – "sparser weak" first sell signal in the monthly time frame putting out with a probability of just 60% that the NASDAQ-100 has formed out an intermediate bull market high at 5724.71.
==> With more than 85% of probability, the NASDAQ-100 shall correct into the early July, perhaps till late July if the May candle closes below 5600 pts AND/OR if only 1 WEEKLY CLOSE below 5600 pts happens till mid-June:
- The May open is at 5602.44 pts. So, a negative bounce from the 5725 horizontal resistance that in fact is able to produce a red candle body till the end of the month – the last red candle body we could record was indeed in October 2016 – would cause a relatively long upper wick in the monthly scale, in that case. Both would be the necessary short signal many bears are wishfully waiting for!
Furthermore, I see the 5245 pts as the lowest possible for a summer correction. That’s where a strong monthly horizontal support area starts, beginning at 5245 and ending at 5155.
==> Technically, 5245 to 5155 is even a support area that exists in the yearly time frame. Each summer pullback is expected to end at this monthly support area – as to my forecast. Please mind about this the green dashed arrow – as well. A mighty monthly rally leg is supposed to follow, leading to the pulverization of the 2nd resistance double arc environment and to the test of the 3rd double arc bull market upmagnet at 6600 pts until March 2018, at the latest.