Since Thursday at the latest, every gold
bug should have some rushes of excitement and the bears in the gold
& precious metals sector should feel very frosty.
Since Fed Powell speech on Wednesday the silver metal is on the march, and this has led to the fact that - with the until today relative weaker gold - the gold-silver ratio began to drop of the recently important 111 base and will now continue to fall to 100-98, perhaps only to print the necessary backtest?????! and test of the BIG ROUND 100 bench mark. On Friday the gold-silver ratio closed at 104.74. Expect the 100-98 test in course of the next 10 trading days...
In sympathy with the shiny silver the
Junior Miners (GDXJ) are now also hunting for higher year highs. The
Silver Miners (SIL) are experiencing a new upward cycle and fresh
2-year highs, the Senior Gold Miners are happy again, as they already
fired a mercilessly strong longer lasting buy signal (GDX) about 4
With gold trading shy below cycle and year highs, silver and entire precious metals miners sector on the run, and last but not least the gold-silver ratio in sharp decline mode for the very first time since years the entire sector is in COMBINED strong uptrend mode and therefore the last few puzzle pieces are in place now allowing and pointing to that the gold soon will trigger the final signal that it indeed has started the run or next daily upcycle to fullfil and work off its important major 2020 uptarget what is 1810$ (= price) and its processing has been predicted for a very long time for the month of June 2020, what will be 55th Fib number month of entire bull market (= time).
However, this next „safe" buy-signal resp. gold bull market continuation signal has NOT been fired yet. Becuse still the weekly trend is determining and this baby is still sideways oriented until proven otherwise. And only when the 5-week Bull Flag in the weekly chart is finally dissolved to the upside on daily closing base soon, we can be 99% sure that the MAJOR 1810$ uptarget should come true sometimes in course of # 55-June 2020.
The above orange highlighted weekly Base Flag is midterm base on weekly closing and opening base. The gold is attempting to penetrate the Flag resistance after Thursday the until then equally cruical weekly resistance of a Triangle or Pennant (lilac) was taken out finally and decisively.
And in theory the gold might continue to trade within the Bull Flag for a long-time maybe. It could trade sideways for some more weeks, even months within the Bull Flag rails cause the gold is known for doing such crazy stuff after important extremes... it consolidates the former important cycle highs or cycle lows in so far as it disappoints traders and investors which, due to the onset of consolidation, then speculate on a future trend continuation, but then when it is ready to do exactly the opposite of what the previous consolidation promised.
So here in this current gold picture it is still possible that as soon as the 55th Fib month of the entire bull market starts on June 1st, it decides leave the Bull Flag to the downside because the time factor is ripe then without working off the MAJOR 1810$ uptarget in further course of June.
By the way, I let my last gold view stick under today's analysis again, because it offers the longer-term picture why the 1810$/# 55-June 2020 is perhaps so important turning point regarding price and time and why the final annual highs could come in there around and then...
Well, main scenario is and plan remains that it has to deliver at least 1810$ in the course of June. The weekly momentum still strongly supports this view. MACD and Slow Stokes together pointing higher for some more week candles and not firing a single disruption why the 1810$ test shouldn`t succeed...
Next is the still valid daily 11 Candle up setup that starts measuring to the upside at printed # 1 // 2020 Low. We can use its signals to recognize when the run into 1810$ officially has started and at what daily closing price this daily uptrend becomes official:
Consolidation starting after 1788.8$ year high still is totally bullish. Some important consolidation lows EXACTLY at Blue Arc and at first square line from above = now future daily support rails. Always when we recognize some exacts hits of an GUNNER24 Item we are relatively safe that the price highly respects the individual rails and triggers of that setup.
BOTH, upper as lower line of 1st double arc have morphed to arc resistances on monthly base, cause consolidation spans longer as 1 month. Of course upper line of 1st is a resisatance on yearly base as this rail then braked at year high.
Friday was able to print the third highest daily close of the year and means the second daily close above the lower line of 1s resistance. This is bullish signal and officially activates the next test of upper line of 1st in trend direction. BUT the trend so far is STILL a sideways trend!,...
... since ONLY the very first daily close ABOVE the upper line of 1st – confirmed yearly arc resistance – will officially trigger the run into 1810$/#-55-June 2020!!!
This upper line of 1st yearly resistance rail runs at about 1772$-1770$ for the coming 5 trading days. And as an informed GUNNER24 Reader you know that the 1772$ (horizontal) is natural yearly GUNNER24 Resistance Party pooper. Upper line of 1st above together with 1772$ yearly resistance horizontal is double yearly resistance magnet at around 1772$-1770$ for the next 5 days. And well, this is why gold has to close – likely at least – 1 time above that area to trigger the underway run into 1810$/#-55-June 2020.
Also the next weekly close above 1772$ is official GUNNER24 Buy Signal what strongly supports that the hunt for the 1810$/#-55-June 2020 should be underway.
... and please remember this: the trend in gold is sideways and chopp until proven otherwise. In an extrem case the silver and the Miners will continue to rally for 5 more days and gold-silver ratio drops below 100 without gold succed to close above the main 1772$ buy trigger! The most extreme case could be that silver and Miners rally further and gold wishes to re-test the Blue Arc and/first square line before succeeding to close above the 1772$. In such case gold-silver ratio could be around 90!
Somehow, I have the feeling that the or a daily uptrend into the 1810$ could be a very choppy upcycle into target with a lot of backing and filling..., simply because markets always remember the recent past and the last weeks went like this. And hmm, maybe the 1822$ = 1772$ + 50$ will become key turning point for gold?!
New findings on the recent gold trend and these indicate a severe upleg underway
Today we are going to look at an array of related factors pointing to bull market continuation by the gold, and probably to new highs at 1800$ surroundings in course of June 2020.
We start with my rally-call from the 2nd of February that the gold should quickly reach it`s then activated upward target, at same time main resistance area, of 1700$-1725$:
The bullish January close at 1593.4$ triggered the important 1700$-1725$ bull market target.
You will find this „Gold Breakout Confirmed => The Resulting Price-Time-Targets" February 2nd forecast here as a reminder. Within you can also read all about the derivation of the currently most determining monthly GUNNER24 Gold Up setup what is the above one, I named "GUNNER24 Breakout Setup". Just click here - click!! - or click on the 02/02/20 forecast-chart above.
About one month later this 2020 main goal was reached and finally processed with printed top of 2020 what stands at 1704.3$ for the then most traded gold futures contract. At that time, on March 9th, gold was only able to test the 1700$ level for some hours without succeeding in just 1 hourly closing price above the "round" 1700$ and since the highest daily closing price of the year is at 1676.6$, we know that the 1700$ is most nearest and at same time most important annual resistance above.
The 1704.3$ extreme means the highest price of entire +4-years bull market.
After 1704.3$ so far year high the gold futures contract panicked into a 1450.6$, so far year low within just 6!! trading days. Followed by a rally what tested back the 1700$ rail within another 6!! trading days. From year high to year low in just 6!!! trading days. Never seen panic waves for the history books!
Often – not always! – when the price trades on or is in striking distance to a pre-defined ITL (orange-dotted vertical) the price goes nuts and/or the volatility will become extreme.
The 2020 top, the brutal sell-off starting at 2020 highs into 2020 low, as the 2020 low as following 148$-bullish-extreme bounce back to 1700$ perhaps were due because the March 2020 candle trades on the orange-dotted vertical = important time line (March 2020 ITL) what defines the transition from one square to another and this always allows extreme price fluctuations or high volatility because then price often is in a vacuum environment.
These never seen extreme courses of events naturally raise some questions about the further development and intentions of gold. And to decipher and unravel them has cost me a lot of nerves and time. But I found it:
A) ==> with a +70% probability the reached 1450.9$ March low is the final low of 2020!
B) ==> Think gold has to test back its year high resistance upmagnet until end of April!, at latest at the beginning of May.
C ) ==> And a little more bullish! Normally gold should reach new year highs during June 2020 at the next higher round number above 1700$, what is the 1800$.
D) This topping event has some odd to lead to the final highs of this year.
I came up with this next HARD gold CALL after trying to better capture the events and extremes of March with the GUNNER24 Method and setup above. I wondered how can I nail the 1450.9$ year 2020-low better or sharper with the GUNNER24.
Which is a very unusual extreme cause it is the case that the lower wick of the March 2020 candle is an abnormal long one. Look into the chart above and check everything before.
The lower March wick is the longest since at least 2011. This usually means bearish exhaustion, and such usually start at in the past defined yearly resp. DECADE supports = major strong supports.
Eureka, I found this after trying out a lot with the scaling of the price-axis. You have to test and control it from time to time because the trend is also subject to recent developments over time...
A! & THE TOTAL! bearish exhaustion 100% exactly kicked in at the most ideal and often most strongest possible bull market support. ==> Activity after March 2020 low confirms that Yearly 1*1 Bull Market Support Angle again was defended strongly. Therefore, THIS gold bull market trend still is FULLY intact & again looks healthy!
March 2020 low, so far year bear extreme, just has tested back the 1*1 Angle what is obviously a guide that the gold loves to test at some very important bull market extremes. I have emphasized these mostly quite exact tests of the 1*1 in the past with the three dark-green arrows.
The importance of the 1*1 for this long-term gold bull market becomes even clearer when we look at the former important high of the February 2019 candle, which meant an exact negative backtest of the 1*1 Gann Angle from below.
Obviously the next test of the 1*1 Bull Market Angle at year low released some very strong bull power so that the still pending 1725$-1722$ major gold uptarget could be tested quickly when observing state of the now underway April 2020 candle what on intra-month base shows a promising long "green body" and gold trading close to the highs of the month.
And all this points to:
A) ==> with a +70% likelihood the reached 1450.9$ March low is the final low of 2020!
Trends starting after a printed year lows usually behave very strong until next important resistance above current quotations is found. They are usually stronger ones according the time and according the price factor.
This is why I think gold will test back 2020 highs area very quickly and likely in further course of April. Therefore:
B) ==> Think gold has to test back its year high resistance upmagnet which is 1700$ to 1725$ until end of April!, at latest towards beginning of May.
Q` s: And if the year low is finally made, it can only go up in course of further months?! Perhaps for most of the rest of the year!?
R: This monthly up starting at # 1 // December 2015 Bear Market low pre-defined lower line of 2nd double arc as possible important uptarget for the bull market and the likelihood that the gold should trade near the 1700$ towards end of April would signal that the entire 1st double arc resistance area would be finally overcome on monthly closing base and therefore the lower line of 2nd should be worked off at around 1790$ to maybe a 1800$ in course of June or so with a +80% probability!
There around according the price unite all in all 3! important former month high resistances made in course of 2011 and 2012 (1804$/1792$/1790$) as additionally the final high of 2012 resistance horizontal which stands 1798.1$, thus forming a next higher 2020 MAJOR GUNNER24 Uptarget Resistance magnet for the gold bull.
The June will be the 55th Fib number month of this again pretty strong looking bull market. And IF the gold – what is very likely – still want` s to continue this so far well-recognized Fib number madness:
==> 8-Fib number top marked first important bull market top
==> 13-Fib number low meant the first major higher low of the bull
==> 21-Fib number top was long-lasting bull market extreme
==> 33-Low, what is oriented to the 34-Fib number meant the last major higher low of the bull, before the next major major bull market low of March 2020!
It can very well happen that the final highs of this year will be reached at 1790$ to 1800$ combined yearly & DECADE & CENTURY resistance upmagnet range sometimes in course of 55th bull market month of June 2020... Always give +/- 1 candle for major extremes possibly caused by the highly important Fibonacci turn numbers:
C ) ==> And a little more bullish! Normally gold should reach new year highs during # 55-June 2020 at the next higher round number above 1700$, what is the 1800$.
D) ==> This looming topping event has some odd to lead to the final highs of this year!!!!!
Brief announcement: because of long Easter Weekend, the next issue of the free GUNNER24 Forecasts will be mailed again on 04/19/2020.