Hasn’t this craziness… this feeling of a bubble and overvaluation been there before? Nothing seems to be able to stop the tech stocks and the tech indexes. The bears are being run down. Higher and higher is where Alphabet = Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Intel, Microsoft has to go! Overbought…!!? Screw it…
Darn good earnings for some of these Major Tech Companies are leading to brutally bullish subsequent buying and to overwhelming optimism of the investors. The NASDAQ-100 is heading the herd again now. And not even for a second you should think in the possibility that the above mentioned companies or the NASDAQ-100 might cede again this powerful position in the course of the year.
After the enormously bullish development of the tech stocks during the first quarter and the generated long-term GUNNER24 Buy Signals in the monthly time frame, we’ll also have to say goodbye to the idea that a stronger (>10%) and longer-term (longer than 3 months) interim correction in the Western stock market indexes (US & EU) might newly happen in 2017.
==> GUNNER24 Prediction: The EU & US stock market indexes will deliver a flawless uptrend year 2017, having been made the year lows just at the beginning, hence in January 2017 and the year highs being supposed to be produced by the end of 2017. Most likely in the month of December!
Above, you see the currently most dominating GUNNER24 Up Setup for the index. It’s a monthly up applied at the important final low of the year 2015 (= month # 17 of the whole upmove that began at the # 1 // 2014 Low). Then we "knew" that owing to the delivered GUNNER24 Buy Signals in the monthly time frame the 1st double arc main uptarget had to be headed for COMPELLINGLY. At this price – 5065-5055 – the 1st main resistance was coming due to be worked off for the time – December 2016/January 2017.
There (5065-5055) and then (December 2016/January 2017) price met time, a bull run/bull market oriented by the high Fib number 34 would have had to stop there turning downwards in order to correct subsequently, to pullback, whatsoever.
But fiddlesticks! Indeed, the 1st main resistance was worked off as announced with the # 34-January 2017 candle.
# 34-January 2017 close is at 5116.77, the # 34-January 2017 high is at 5172.43.
Then it came to a bull-market continuation however. The # 35-February 2017 closed far above the 1st double arc, another GUNNER24 Buy Signal in the monthly time frame. Afterwards, both the # 36-March and the # 37-April 2017 could climb higher bull market highs, new alltime-highs and higher monthly closing highs.
!!! Since the bull market that began at the # 1 // 2014 Low now displays higher monthly highs after the 34 Fib number, the bull market is supposed to keep on booming till the next higher Fib number 55 !!!
==> This bull market might resp. should have to last through February 2019!, that is the # 55-bull market month. Correspondingly, due to the positive price performance of the first 4 months of this year, some exorbitantly high price targets were activated. Almost for sure seems to be the duplication of the NASDAQ-100 till 2019!
GUNNER24 Method forecasts 10.000 NASDAQ-100 index points until 2019!
This was the very Big Picture. Let’s go now into the further development of the NASDAQ-100 in 2017. Right in the next chart, the actualized monthly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up ensues, as things stand at the April 2017 close. Again, the setup starts at the final low of the year 2015. That was an important bull market low after all. Also at this low, an important bull market cycle in the monthly time frame began.
That’s why another monthly bull market count begins at the # 1 // 2015 Low. Based on the # 1 // 2015 Low, a classical 5 Fib number Candle up impulse starts surely always defining the most likely future important resistances/supports whose overcoming/rebound delivers us the buy- resp. sell-signals as well as some natural future targets.
After the end of the first initial impulse, the NASDAQ-100 corrected deep into the 1*2 Angle Support. There, at the # 7-low being the final low of the year 2016 a next higher bull market low was released by the 1*2 Support Angle. The first 1*2 Support Angle test triggered a rally that lasts till today!
As sketched above already, the # 18-January 2017 closed at the bull market target of the 1st double arc. In retrospect, the 1st was not at all an important resistance. We see the brutally bullish way the last 3 month candles February to April 2017 kept on rising, driven by the upwards break of the 1st main resistance and the # 21-April 2017 month candle pricked from below the naturally anchored Resistance Angle at the Friday top (also month high) without being able to overcome on monthly closing base.
==> The # 21-April 2017 high found important monthly resistance at the natural Resistance Angle, a natural upmagnet for this bull run.
Since after the upwards break of the 1st double arc the lower line of the 2nd double arc became the next higher important uptarget in the monthly time frame, the coming month # 22-May 2017 will be able to reach the lower line of the 2nd at 5625!!
Since the months of May in the post-election years are by tradition very strong months for the tech stocks resp. tech indexes - the last one before the likewise traditional summer correction is due – we have to work on the assumption that the NASDAQ-100 will newly have to test the Resistance Angle from below in # 22-May 2017. From experience we know this: Whenever a month (of course, each other time frame as well…!!) closes very narrowly below such a natural time magnet, the subsequent candle should reach this magnet again!! ==> The probability of such a test comportment to ensue is far above 80%.
==> That’s why I bet that the final # 22-May top should be brought in at the next test of the Resistance Angle = very likely # 22-May 2017 top near 5670 pts, allow a few points more...
From there and after the final negative test of the Resistance Angle from below, the NASDAQ-100 is supposed to begin correcting because of course the coming month of May 2017 is the high important 21st Fib number month candle AFTER the # 1 // 2015 Low candle.
==> For May 2017, again the price factor (2nd double arc uptarget = main resistance magnet) gets married to time = high 21 Fib number! This means, a change in trend is imminent!
==> Some further upwards magnets for the now upcoming first important 2017 high are A) the natural 5725-GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance resp. B) the upper line of the 2nd at 5860. But those ones will only be in line if a decisive weekly close above the Resistance Angle succeeds in May 2017, so not before a weekly close above round about 5680 pts!
==> With more than 70% of probability, the NASDAQ-100 shall correct after its attained May 2017 high into the early July, perhaps till late July. Pullback is certainly the better expression because at the moment, I see 5245 pts as a maximum for a summer correction. That’s where a strong monthly horizontal support area starts, beginning at 5245 and ending at 5155.
==> Technically, 5245 to 5155 is even a support area that exists in the yearly time frame. Each summer pullback is expected to end at this monthly support area – as to my forecast. Please mind about this the green dashed arrow – as well. A mighty monthly rally leg is supposed to follow, leading to the pulverization of the 2nd resistance double arc and to the test of the 3rd double arc bull market upmagnet at 6600 pts until March 2018, at the latest.
Please watch next for the 2*1 Support Angle. Since start of the bull NO single monthly close below the 2*1 Support Angle was allowed to happen, so that major Gann Support Angle is strongest support in the monthly and yearly time frames actually. Corresponding just the very first monthly close below the 2*1 Support Angle signals the final end of the bull market run and the start of a serious correction according price and time!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann