S&P 500 Target Area
In March, the S&P 500 marked the predicted high near 1180 (GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 02/28/2010). On 03/25/2010, we covered all the longs in the American stock markets since in the NDX our forecast price target on daily and weekly basis had been reached. (GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 03/28/2010).
In this GUNNER24 Forecast issue, I'd like to focus on the topic which course the American stock market is going to adopt and, above all, to concentrate upon the price target that is to be expected in April.
The situation: April candle is lying exactly on the important time line of the just passed square. Due to the rules, a significant low or a significant high, respectively should be produced. By the break of thee first double arc with the 2009 November candle the following targets in the S&P 500 were activated:
1. 1215 until the end of March/beginning of April, 2010
2. 1375 until January, 2012
By the February candle 2010 the first double arc was tested exactly at an important price and time magnet. Since then, the price only knows one way: The upwards one.
The time gap for the first obvious target is going to close next week (04/11/2010). Since in terms of chart techniques we continue being in a downwards trend, we always have to assume that the second double arc represents the maximum target for a counter trend. NOT BEFORE one of the next month candles either closes within the 2nd double arc or breaks significantly the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method will assume an established upwards trend as a closing price within the 2nd double arc confirms the next main target (3rd double arc)! By getting to the lower line of the 2nd double arc, the S&P 500 has reached its minimum target of this upwards move. Accordingly, now we should reckon on everything: Termination of the exhaustion move, followed by a violent downwards reaction, on working off the other up targets, we even have to reckon on a 200 point candle, since the environment of a double arc might have an effect like a blaze accelerator if the price is on an important time line being able to boost the existing trend enormously...
At first, I'd like to deal with the possible April targets. For that, we will zoom into the above 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup looking closely at the environs of the 2nd double arc:
As we mentioned before, the minimum target of the upwards move since March, 2009 was reached by the Thursday closing price! The exhaustion targets are: 1200, 1215 (highest probability is that it will correspond with the main target in the daily 13 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup!) and 1243. The maximum low permitted in April is lying exactly within the red mark at the intersection of the important time line and the primary Gann Angle at 1076.
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The minimum target in the monthly GUNNER24 Up Setup is corresponding with the following weekly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup for the ES # contract:
We recognize that the price has closed within the main target for the third time, thus the targets of overriding importance (4th and 5th double arcs) are activated. Since the price is at the main target any moment now we will have to reckon on a correction that may take us along the 3rd double arc until the 1*1 Gann Angle. But we'll have to wait for a weekly reversal candle to carry out that short engagement. That might happen next week at least by the Fibonacci count.
Last week was the eighth week with rising prices without a visible retracement. If we go on rising next week which would be the ninth consecutive week we may work on the assumption of a 13 candle up swing which again points to an important time target, the 05/05/2010, which is possibly the most important time target of the whole upwards move. (See about it the weekly 5 Candle Elliptical GUNNER24 Down Setup at the NQ #, GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 03/28/2010).
We cannot assume the existence of a change in trend before the above 1*1 Gann Angle has been broken downwards significantly. Since the NDX on weekly basis is within its main target, as well (5th double arc, GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 03/28/2010) extreme circumspection is called for as far as further long engagements are concerned.
That's what also the daily GUNNER24 Up Setups show! In all the up setups, the markets are at important targets, respectively.
The YM # is parking closely below the 4th double arc that offers few resistance, with a main target of 11100 (05/05/2010). We have been running upwards for 40 days. That means in this setup there is still a little breathing space in terms of price and time, and we can speculate with a possibly last swing upwards.
Last Thursday, the NDX reached the main target and rebounded from it very clearly. The flag that has developed within the last six trading days is undoubtedly positive. If such a striking consolidation formation is formed under the GUNNER24 Up Targets we have to take it seriously! The flag means continuation in trend!
Tactics for next week: The daily 3 Candle NDX GUNNER24 Up Setup above should show us the way like it did the weeks before. In case the 5th double arc breaks, we will go long. As well, we will go long if we can suppose there's a Gann Angle Retracement at the 2*1 Gann Angle. (For that, we will chose the 4 hour GUNNER24 Setup at the NDX being our entry). If that 2*1 Gann Angle on daily basis is broken downwards we'll look for the short entry with a very narrow SL at the last high.
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