2 new Crude Oil Sell-Triggers, valid for April 2017

 

Due to existing GUNNER24 Timing Signals last we could state with high certainty that the Black Gold would dissolve its dull and narrow 3 month sideways range scarcely below the reached 2016 and 2017 year highs within 10 trading days. The odds for the dissolution of the sideways range were pretty evenly spread: 50 downwards / 50 upwards.


This last in-depth assessment of Crude Oil "Make or Break Setup" of March-5-2017 can be calmly studied here again: click me!


Two days later, ensuing from the top of March-7 (53.80$). The expected tough trend move began. Crude Oil started selling off and releasing thus a new weekly and daily downtrend = BREAK!

 

 

The first downtrend target was identified at the 48$ rising year support. This one was worked off but a while later for the first time. It happened on March 14, then it was newly tested most intensely between March 21 and 27, 2017. The absolute downtrend low came in at 47.01$ on March 22. The lowest downtrend close is at 47.70$, as yet.


The so far lowest downtrend close on weekly base was marked at 47.97$. Thereby, the extremely important – in the chart above depicted green dotted – 48$ rising yearly support could be defended/borne, at high pressure indeed, but anyway.


Before I dive deeper into the weekly time frame and its present situation resp. before I present you the newly developed GUNNER24 Sell Signal in the weekly time frame, at first the current bigger picture, the situation of the raw material in the monthly time frame after March and the first quarter closing along with the resulting new trend signals:

 

 

At the final February 2016 low (# 1 // 2016 Bear Low) the monthly uptrend cycle starts we may now - after the delivered March 2017 candle - attribute its very first intermediate top to be made at the attained high of the year 2017:


==> At the # 12-January 2017 high, the longterm initial up impulse out of the # 1 // 2016 Bear Low according price topped. Since then, Crude Oil has been correcting this initial up impulse. That longterm initial up impulse is technically a textbook impulse comprising 13 (Fib number) candles. However, very deliberately I named the setup that is anchored in the chart above "12/13/14 Candle up" because the tops of the uptrend months # 12 as well as both small lower highs of the # 13-February and # 14-March 2017 can ideally caught by the circular Blue Arc.


Since after all the # 12-top represents the current year high and with a lot of certainty it is also the 1-year-cycle high, the Blue Arc means future resistance not only on monthly high base, but in addition it is future resistance in the yearly time frame. = The Blue Arc is now super exactly pre-defined and manifold negatively tested combined monthly and yearly resistance arc.


==> From this condition, the following next strong GUNNER24 Buy Signal in the monthly time frame results. Any future monthly close above the Blue Arc – be it ever so minimally above the Blue Arc – will be an extremely strong buy signal with uptarget lower line of thee 1st double arc in bull market direction.


However, before such an important next buy signal can gather, Crude Oil will be supposed to keep on correcting into the summer for the time being, as to the present signal situation:


The # 14-March 2017 candle didn’t only rebound severely after a next smaller lower monthly high from the Blue Arc, but with the reached close it also generated a GUNNER24 Double Sell candle in the monthly time frame. On the one hand, March 2017 closed below an extremely significant existing support: ==> It was matter of the support that springs from the final low of the year 1998. It pinpoint endorsed the final low of 2001 as well as the 2009 bear low, it was fallen below in the course of 2015 and with the December 2016 candle, it was both exceeded and therewith also re-conquered on yearly closing base.


==> The # 14-March 2017 candle could not defend the existing DECADE & CENTURY SUPPORT!


Furthermore, Crude Oil lost now the 2*1 Bull Market Angle on closing base!


Thus, the March development activated the 1*1 Bull Market Angle to be worked off within the current monthly correction move.


==> Technically, Crude Oil is expected to keep on correcting in the further course to reach then – at the earliest and in the worst case – the 1*1 Bull-Market Angle together with the middle of first square support at 41.50$ with the # 16-May 2017 low or – more likely


to work off the 1*1 Bull Market Angle in a rather hesitant but continuous downtrend way at the "round" 43$ mark by no later than the # 18-July 2017 low, before the next strong bull market upleg in the monthly time frame, released by the 1*1 Bull-Market-Angle bounce, should begin.


The currently very most riskless entry into a short-position with downtarget 41.50$ to 43.00$ (a wonderful narrow stop-loss-placement is possible at it!) would be a classical backtest of the combined Blue Arc and 2*1 Angle monthly resistance magnet that is at exactly 53.90$ for April 2017.


The crucial question is of course: Is Crude Oil really able to head for resp. reach once more its 2017-high region in the course of April with the support of the newly rallying US stock market uptrend and the help of the started US$ Index bounce?? As things stand today, it’s difficult to assess, because in theory, the US stocks and the US$ Index should be backed bullish till about the middle of April. Besides, who really dares to guess what the more and more flagging US stock market and the US$-Index bulls are still able to do…


At least, we’ve got a wonderful trigger signaling us whether Crude Oil can reach the 53.90$ once more in April… It is likely to if a weekly close above 52.00$ succeeds in April!


And thereby, concluding this issue I come back to the weekly time frame and its currently existing GUNNER24 Signals:

 

 

Above, you see the 18 Candle elliptical up setup, manifold analyzed and pioneering in the past, that is being applied at the 2016 Bear Low.


I adopted the elliptical up setup to the last developments and newest realizations. Thereby – as a rule – we get higher signal security in respect of due time and price decisions:


A) The elliptical Blue Arc measures exactly up into the important 51.67$ uptrend high, that represent the closure of an initial up impulse, after all.


B) Be mindful of the first important higher uptrend low (at 39.19$) to meet the "Important Resistance Angle".


The result is C) that the current 2017 high can be caught consistently at the lower line of the natural 1st double arc bull market uptarget.


Therewith automatically D) the important lower 55.05$-February 2017 high must have been triggered most precisely by the upper line of the 1st double arc resistance!


And thus, at the same time, E) the next following lower weekly high at the dark red arrow was released by the upper line of the 1st!


==> The upper, as well as the lower line of the 1st are important magnets for Crude Oil. They used to be important in the past, so they are supposed to be important for the future as well!


Now, take a look at the extremely positive development of the last week candle. It succeeded in closing far above the lower line of the 1st after the lower line of the 1st had provided support at the opening auction! A bullish reversal candle is visible! A shortterm bullish signal has emerged! Thereby, Crude Oil activated again the upper line of the 1st resistance magnet as the next important uptarget in the weekly time frame.


And well, with the support of the US stock markets and with the help of the underway US$ Index bounce there should be little doubt in Crude Oil to reach/test back/work off the upper line of the 1st double arc at exactly 52$ as early as in the course of next week!


Since the 61.8% Fib retracement of the current downtrend (downtrend high at 55.05$/downtrend low at 47.01$) is at 51.97$, this natural resistance and the GUNNER24 Upper Line of the 1st will form enormously strong weekly resistance at the "round" 52$ Gann number for next trading week.


==> The optimal short entry for venturesome Crude Oil bears! For the 41.50$-43.00$ downtarget at the Important Support Angle in the weekly time frame!


==> As worked out above already, any significant close above 52$ in April 2017 will activate the swift approach to the 53.90$ monthly resistance magnet that can possibly be worked off then, still in the further course of April 2017!


Be a part of our exclusive sworn GUNNER24 Trader Community – now... I`m going to show you the way to trade successully the probably upcoming next Crude Oil downleg!

 

 

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Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann