After the biggest financial bubble ever recorded bitcoin dropped by -90% and bottomed finally after a to the 13 Fibonacci number oriented monthly decline wave into sustainable December 2018 <=> February 2019 Yearly Double Bottom pattern. Since bitcoin is in a new multi-yearlong uptrend.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) can be considered as a proxy for bitcoin developments. It is a trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. It enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin without the challenge of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoins. Since the GBTC currently has much more data points as the bitcoin future contracts, I use it for a long time to approach the supposed bitcoin course.
Last time I recommended to add to longs within 01/12/2020 GUNNER24 Newsletter Issue because of this identified elliptical arc support what is MAJOR yearly support as it is well-confirmed & very sharp defined 2018-2019-2020 triple year low barrier.
Lastly, the dark-green Yearly Support Arc was touched both at the important low of December 2019 and shortly afterwards at the current low of this year, that came in very early-January at 7.61$.
It is strange observation that this main support was intensely tested for weeks towards the turn of the year`s 2018 and 2019, and now again at the turn of the year`s 2019 to 2020?!
This is a given time harmony existing for the always important time window of the turn of the year.
And after GBTC finally went higher after we entered a long position at 9.00$ at next test of this elliptical support arc we have now full confirmation that this rail above is triple successful tested year low support and also has morphed to an usually strong holding annual support.
After 9$ long entry it continued its uptrend, worked off the first GUNNER24 Uptarget at 12.75$/February, and more bullish, was even able to print a 13.69$ at this year high before another correction wave started.
This is the updated GBTC chart at the closing price of the week ...:
I`ve adjusted the support arc a little bit to frame the recent 2020 developments without disregarding the lows of 2019 & 2019 at the arc.
Past week candle low and close corrected likely exactly into that Yearly Triple Bottom Support Arc! HIT!
In my opinion the prices of this week's candle have undercut the arc minimally – as it was the case 5 to 6 times before... –, and at week lows the arc support obviously kicked in again as this week candle closed slightly "green". Additionally by Thursday close GBTC printed a buy candle on daily base. For this important first daily buy signal, that supports that the correction likely has ended, please watch next chart below.
Actually we observe the VERY FIRST backtest of the arc in course of 2020 after current 2020 low was triggered by the arc support. GBTC is higher for the week and therefore it might be the case:
A) That this week low at 9.45$ will be the first important higher low of 2020 time window!
B) At 9.45$ BA) the correction likely has finally ended. BB) a new daily and weekly upcycle is triggered at 9.45$ because of Yearly Triple Bottom Support Arc.
==> Therefore one can buy at 10.33$ until next week Friday. There about runs upward pushing elliptical arc support for the next trading week!
==> Midterm uptarget remains the "very conservative" looking 17$ spring uptarget = 38.2% Fib retracement bounce target of 2018 ATH to final 2019 Low correction cycle.
Attention readers, here is some more ARC PORN!
After Thursday`s bullish liberation strike = strong buy candle with higher highs made, also the daily time frame confirms that it has again found it`s main support which exists in form of an elliptical arc.
This week low one more time hit the since AUGUST 2019!!! determining dark-green Support Arc on Tuesday at 9.45$.
There and then at all in all 6th backtest of the daily arc AT THE SAME TIME the very first backtest of Yearly Support Arc since early-made 2020 low occured.
==> 9.45$ bear price is at combined yearly and daily arc support magnet! And this points to the outcome that GBTC has to rally more the coming days and dips should be bought!
By the way, please watch how nicely the center of the daily elliptical arc can be located at 13.69$ this year high price!
And because the above highlighted arc support at Tuesday Spike Low became confirmed-important for the very first time in the phase where it is rising we have got some confirmation for that:
Tuesday lows likely have met yearly support, therefore it seems that this extreme will be the first important higher low of 2020!
The now likely underway weekly and daily upcycle usually has to test back 2020 high environment and this is why the first uptarget of the setup is the 13.60$ and classic backtest of 2020 high environment.
!! However, it remains to be seen whether the for end of March 2020 scheduled test of top environment can lead to some higher 2020 highs !!
==> First uptarget at 13.60$/March 2020!
==> GBTC midterm uptarget is 17.00$/spring 2020!
==> Please place the SL for this GBTC-long setup at 9.40$!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann