The gloves are off for all the Gold Bugs. The first entry chance into some new long-positions is emerging! Specifically:
For a long time we have been pretty positive already that the downtrend which had started in October 2012 is to head for the 1*2 Support Gann Angle in the weekly 13 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup that is dominating in the long term:
With the selling wave unleashed last week, the minimum correction target of 1570 we forecast at the end of 2012 is now in reach and in impact distance. It’s only 2-3 weak trading days away. So from my point of view a first long-entry around 1570-1550 will be pretty profitable and promising now:
With the horrible performance of last week the break of the Important Gann Angle is finally confirmed. According to the rules, the next important Gann Angle support should/will be headed for now. 1*2 is next target now. The closing beneath the lower line of the 4th and the important horizontal support at 1619 is to be considered as a so-called double sell candle, because as many as two important supports were broken downwards in one go. The downtrend has intensified going to move away further from the lower line of the 4th. The double sell candle is pointing to the speedy completion of the prognosticated correction pattern of this downtrend. It’s an ABCDE-correction:
Wave A was 125.60$, Wave C comprised 129$ - so they had about the same length. The up-waves B and D – because of clarity not sketched in the chart above – were similar as well. By virtue of the prevalent symmetry of the different waves of this correction we can/must simply work on the assumption that the actual wave E is performing just about like A or C. If E becomes as long as A is – 125.60$ - this downswing will end at 1574. If E becomes as long as C is – 129$ - this downswing will end at 1569. As far as the timing goes the 1570 surroundings are supposed to be reached in three weeks!
In the surroundings of important tops or lows I always like to employ the elliptic GUNNER24 Setups. They often help to refine the targets, to confirm them but also to facilitate new points of view to the actual developments.
In the following weekly 20 candle up setup we likewise take the important low of the last trading week in July 2010 as the starting point. But we measure till the absolutely highest high of the first initial impulse. It lasted 20 weeks altogether. 20 are very close to the important Fibonacci number 21. So it’s almost perfect, and thus it goes completely conform to the rules:
Tracing the setup to the right, several important pre-conditions have to be fulfilled from the logical point of view. First the uptrend dominating since last summer must be possible by a logical anchoring in the elliptical setup. Second it must furthermore be possible to define and make visible the actually strong downtrend by a double arc. Every new trend – up or down – is being triggered by double-arc contacts, or it is passing along/within/above a double arc – in the optimal case.
Furthermore, for me it was essential to capture the very important 1755 weekly and monthly horizontal resistance in the elliptical setup.
On those conditions I think the uptrend that is on since August 2010 has been being mapped out pretty well. A multiplicity of magnets can be classified!
Contemplating the last weeks more exactly we’ll see that in this elliptical setup, too, gold is situated within a double arc. Gold is joining the 3rd downwards, and the downswing has not come to an end yet. According to the Gann Angle trading rules the angle should be headed for that is called Target Gann Angle in the chart above! That would be at least 1556!
We see that the Important Gann Angle support was finally given up last week. That’s a sell signal! It’s a fresh sell signal that is going to make the trend accelerate more now.
The last trading week touched down exactly at the lower line of the 3rd rebounding. Also an important monthly and weekly horizontal support was reached. In the setup above it’s the 1603. Considering the still following monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup you’ll see that also a strong monthly horizontal support exists at 1603. I.e., a pretty important low was probably formed on Friday that is supposed to lead to a more or less powerful rebound at least on daily basis. Maybe we’ll see a high up to 1630-1635 within 5-8 days…
Then a new downwave is to be expected that should come to an end by the first or second March week. As analyzed more above in the weekly 13 candle up, the 1574-1569 are offering themselves at the 1*2 Support Gann Angle or as the ABCDE correction-pattern target.
The elliptical weekly 20 candle GUNNER24 Up and the ruling monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup are putting out the 1556-1550 as the final low of this downtrend:
Even though as analyzed - by reaching the 1603 a combined weekly and monthly horizontal support was worked off, many clues indicate its break. In the weekly time frame gold is situated at/within some important double arcs that are supposed to keep on pressing gold down. As furthermore analyzed already, last week gold produced a double sell candle on weekly base that is supposed to make the downtrend accelerate more. The 1603 is expected to fall!
If the 1603 are given up, a real panic and a final washout with a high volume should happen.
If the 1603 are given up, gold will have to head for its next important support in the monthly time frame. This one is at 1550$ for March 2013! The intersection point of the upper line of the 3rd and the 2*1 Gann Angle is the strongest down magnet in the setup above.
Not before the 2*1 Gann Angle in the monthly setup above is reached – either at 1550 in March (80% of probability) or at 1562 in April (20% of probability) – this downtrend will have the chance to come to an end.
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