Last week, my heart misgave me already. What will happen with the Euro and the Eurozone in case of unforeseen circumstances. – Will 0.80 for the pair EUR/USD be possible then?
The Swiss Franc de-pegging announcement last Thursday should make us aware how fast things may change now, how billions or even trillions may be eliminated within 30 seconds, how market structures may be broken. We should realize how fast entire economic zones, countries, banks, brokers, national wealth and trading- as well as investment-accounts may go down the drain because the central bankers’ and political leaders’ mistakes are being dug up.
You’ll find a gorgeous recap showing the outcomes and backgrounds of the Swiss National Central Bank´s unexpected decision to abandon its cap here in this article:
… I simply have neither time nor space to spare for looking nearer at this decision. Right now, I’d like to deal with the fresh GUNNER24 Signals and actual price targets of Euro, gold and DAX. What I can contribute on the Swiss de-pegging is – inter alia – the following course of events:
Last Wednesday, Draghi, Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble met in Berlin.
On Thursday, at 10:29 h, occurs the bombshell of the SNB.
On Thursday, at 11:25 h, Ukraine announces that no gas is arriving any more.
As to my assessment, there’s fire in the hole! A Black Swan event may be heading our way, as it were the financial Armageddon for the Eurozone respectively the Euro is impending. The Euro- gold- and DAX-charts are signaling weirdness:
No living person has ever witnessed respectively gathered experience with what may happen if an entire important economic zone with about 350 million inhabitants (Eurozone: 19 EU countries) indeed sideslips or collapses or if its currency finally breaks devaluing enormously etc. within some minutes or hours.
Let alone whatnot is possible because the different financial markets as well as the whole financial system nowadays are subject to the dictates of computer-driven algorithm trading programs. These mostly bias how fast = factor time, the targets = factor price, of a move are being reached. The developments within the most different markets again have an effect upon other markets. I.e. the final effects and consequences, the possible correlations between the markets in terms of price and time, the velocity of emerging incidents are actually not graspable, foreseeable and thereby nor are they determinable.
Many things are obscure or concealed. One event releases the other. The speed and the exact procedures – I mean how fast and when and which dominos may fall leading to the possible break of the entire Eurozone – are not predictable.
The potential dimensions of possible events (price targets) are however. The next important dominos with immense influence upon the markets are on the one hand the ECB meeting on January 22, where Draghi will present the Euro stimulus program. On the other hand, the Greeks will vote on Sunday, 25. Furthermore, there are rumors of the Ukraine to be incorporated into the EU soon. If this event is announced, New Russia will be annexed by Putin immediately, I imagine!
Nobody knows what will happen when the Greeks vote for the possible Euro-exit, how Euro, $, Gold and other related markets will react and tick according price and time when this domino will fall, means how deep or high they go in a given time period...
A GUNNER24 Downtarget 2015 for EUR/USD pair is a weekly 1.1550 to 1.1350. 1.15 was reached on Friday. So last hope for Euro-bulls is now 1.1350 weekly support, and for now it is feasible that pair will go 1.1350 till Thursday and the ECB announcement. Maybe 1.15 will hold the whole week till the ECB announcement.
The currently extreme Euro short-positioning of the market participants and the extreme bearish Euro sentiment as well as the market motto "sell the rumor, buy the fact" make us suppose that after the ECB announcement the pair might start a really heavy short-covering bounce. In such a possible bounce, the 1.19-1.21 = yearly resistance may thoroughly be achieved. The important 1*1 Angle takes its course at 1.1915 in January. That’s where the currently strongest resistance zone begins, where entering into short-engagements is compelling.
If next week or the week after next closes below 1.13 – based on the ECB decisions and/or the Greece elections – the 1.08 will be next important downtarget. A weekly close below 1.08 will activate the parity finally. A weekly close below 0.98 will open gates to 0.85-0.88 or so. I’m not able to state anything on the time aspect, I mean how fast downtargets might be reached. They might within minutes, days, weeks, months…
1.1550-1.13 might hold this week, and then the Greeks will be voting. If they like to stay in the Eurozone the pair might bounce upwards within minutes, hours, days or weeks up to 1.19 even 1.21.
We do not know how the political and financial leaders, central banks and the Eurozone population will react to a possible Grexit vote. Nor will the leaders and Banksters disclose their plans in detail in advance, nor should we expect them to say the truth or act for the purpose of the people and traders and investors. THEY WANT YOUR MONEY! So please be prepared accordingly for bank runs, frozen accounts, negative interest rates in Eurozone and maybe short term civil unrest.
The FDAX – I always analyze the DAX future, just the FDAX – has reached a new all-time high. Everything is pointing to the market participants obviously speculating now for a break of the Eurozone and "Germany’s return to a strong D-Mark", in the short, medium or long term.
The German stock market is currently considered as to be a Safe Haven. There is no other rationalization for the positive development of this index in the environment of the foreseeable Eurozone recession, the gas quarrel, the Ukraine crisis and the present Euro weakness:
In the valid 14 Candle up setup – monthly time frame – the index is clearly breaking out of its main resistance, the 5th double arc. This one will finally be confirmed if the FDAX succeeds in closing above 10100 index points in January 2015.
First target would be 10680 respectively main target the 11700 in this case:
Scrutinizing closely we recognize that the first test of the lower line of the 5th double arc at the January 2015 low must have released an enormous up-energy boost. Watch the green arrow.
With their closings above the upper line of the 5th double arc main resistance, November and December suggested already that the market is certainly willing to go up steadily. Now, the index seemingly wants to remove from the resistance magnet of the 5th double arc. Currently, January 2015 is already trading above the important 1*1 Angle. If this one is overcome with the January close, the present upwards momentum is likely to be able to keep on accelerating and developing.
The ECB decision and the Greece elections will naturally influence the target activation according to price and time. Perhaps both mentioned targets or one of them will be worked off in a very short stretch, maybe within a few days respectively a few weeks or even within a several hour panic move… So they might be reached already with the January 2015 or February 2015 high. After reaching the first respectively the main target, always the beginning of a hefty downwards move has to be reckoned with as well.
Gold is trading now above the most important monthly resistance that has been restraining the metal during the past months. Gold produced two consecutive daily closings above the 1240. Monday is likewise supposed to close above the 1240. Thus, the 2*1 Resistance Angle (taking course at 1240 in January) starting from the August 2011 high seems to be overcome finally. This means: The first weekly buy signal in GUNNER24 Terms:
Gold closed the week at 1280. Therewith a pretty clear weekly close above the monthly 1272 GUNNER24 Resistance Horizontal succeeded. That means one more buy signal on weekly base.
Furthermore, the 2*1 Resistance Angle, starting from the all-time high in September 2011, was overcome on weekly base. This one takes course at 1267 in January. It’s the next buy signal on weekly base.
Since also the 1222 GUNNER24 Resistance Horizontal in the monthly time frame was absolutely overcome finally in the course of the week, the week delivered a quadruple GUNNER24 Weekly Buy Signal. Overcoming the monthly 1222 + 1240 + 1262 + 1272 resistances within one week is extraordinary, uncommon, stunning and an expression for what kind of upwards powers are working at the moment. Each break of the mentioned monthly resistance magnets has created more and more upside energy = acceleration of positive momentum.
==> This quadruple buy signal on weekly base activated now the next higher GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance as uptarget ==> The 1325-1322 horizontal is now the strongest magnet for the price.
==> If 1322 breaks upwards... on weekly closing base and/or on monthly closing base the 1430-1450 Resistance Area residing at the lower line of the first double arc resistance will be activated as the next higher countertrend uptarget…
==> I think the western central banks began to buy gold severely last week… it’s certainly blatant which one is game.
The potency of Switzerland’s and their monetary policy’s influence on the gold price is really amazing:
On the day of the gold all-time high (06/09/2011), the Swiss Franc was officially pegged to the Euro. The multi-year Gold Bear Market started after this announcement.
The day after the Swiss gold referendum was denied (01/12/2014), an important interim higher spike-low succeeded as a direct reaction to the referendum within the countertrend that had started with the 1130 bear-market low.
And now we have the current rally triggered by the Swiss Franc de-pegging on Thursday. Was the de-pegging able to finish the US$ Gold Bear Market officially? It was! Thoroughly it was!!...
For the EUR/USD pair and the FDAX as well as for gold, the following assessment applies: How fast the recently activated price targets will be reached = worked off and which way the markets will react individually to these price targets, remains absolutely untold. In the price targets, the existing trends may keep on accelerating respectively turn completely.
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