The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) can be considered as a proxy for bitcoin developments. It is a trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. Since GBTC currently has much more data points as the bitcoin futures contracts, we use it to approach the supposed bitcoin course.

Within free GUNNER24 Forecast Newsletter 11/24/2019 "Go ahead, Bitcoin, make my day – Urgent Update" I`ve analyzed the elliptical main support of GBTC for the last time.

I thought then that GBTC/bitcoin has to test it`s so far 5 times confirmed, meanwhile rising elliptical support arc, one more time very quickly close to downtrend week No. 21-Fibonacci number before this accurate-defined and till then nice defended support should trigger the next weekly and monthly uptrend in which the price should be able to reach 17$ (= 38.2% Fib retracement of 2018 alltlime-high to 2019 Low range), and even the 25$ level (= 61.8% Fib retracement) sometimes in course of the year 2020:



Since markets mostly are sluggish, they often bend or extend curved supports a little further down after each successful test. As it is likely the case with the above fat dark-green main arc support of the GBTC. Also, since I don't want to fool you at all, short-term trading in this high emotional market is often very challenging. We only find crystal-clear trading triggers relatively rarely, which is also due to the occasionally quite large price gaps. I also believe that the dominant cycles still have to be brought in here or have to shape, since GBTC/bitcoin is still a very young market.

That is why our price/time method is "not" as accurate as usual. Hopefully that will come later.

And that's probably why the arc was not tested very quickly. Instead of this - and this is perhaps a very, very important abnormality - the arc was only reached towards the turn of the year 2019 but also towards the new year 2020:



We can now map the determining arc support of the GBTC as shown above in the weekly chart, because we can consider the experience gained in the recent past.

And with that we can - as always - define this main support for the nearer and further future in advance. This offers trading opportunities. Which are currently clearly visible on the long side, cause we see prices moving higher and the first weekly reversal candle since nearly 3 months.

Isn't it strange for you to observe that this main support was intensely tested for weeks towards the turn of the year`s 2018 and 2019, and now again at the turn of the year`s 2019 to 2020?! Looks to me like a time harmony is given for the always important time window of the turn of the year. So it may well be that the elliptical arc may be a threshold that would like to be responsible for an triple successful tested year low support.

==> Arc could have morphed to an usually strong holding annual support. Might be the rail for 3!!! consecutive final lows of a year. Such possible rare pattern on yearly base could release a lot of bullish energy to push the price higher for the short- and midterm and maybe for the most part of 2020...

What we can definitely recognize in all cases is that, right at the start of the new year, the arc support has successfully completed the 15th to 17th test on combined weekly closing and week low base. Additionally the daily time frame fired a Double Bottom pattern whereby the December low is seen at 7.92$ and the current 2020 low stands at 7.91$.

As a bitcoin bull, you can`t ask for much more, can you?: Frequently confirmed and above all extremely precisely defined increasing weekly or even increasing triple year low support.

Within our GUNNER24 Trade of the Day service we prepare to buy GBTC between 9.10$ and 8.90$ for the "very conservative" 17$ spring uptarget = 38.2% Fib retracement bounce target of alltime-high to final 2019 Low correction cycle. Entry is located at elliptical arc support for the rest of January. SL is the new low at 7.90$:



An other good argument that the market found intermediate lows at just printed daily Double Bottom pattern delivers the count that offers that the two pillars of the Double Bottom are in 100% time harmony to the printed daily 2019 Double Top resp. small lower 2019 highs topping pattern.

Left pillar or final 2019 December Low of the Double Low came in 120 trading days after the red # 1 // Final high of 2019. 2020 Low at 7.91$ is harvested 121 trading days after dark-red # 1 // Lower 2019 High or right pillar of the 2019 Double Top.

==> Or, time factor strongly points to the outcome that the 2020 Low will be a more sustainable low resp. usually is even an intermediate cycle low and there and then a fresh uptrend on daily and on weekly base is triggered.

Please count that at dark-red # 121 // 7.91 // 2020 Low a quite normal daily initial up impulse started which lasted 5 Fib number days. A 5 up impulse is strong hint for that this move was backed by the masses. Another bullish sign is that within the 5 days lasting initial up impulse the well-confirmed = strong orange-dotted "Yearly Resistance 1" was fairly overcome on daily closing base. This is an official buy signal what is now retraced and at same time has tested first natural price/time support of the middle of first square and secondly the "Yearly Resistance 2" at Thursday lows.

After a stronger bullish move, it is normal to see a retrace, so I can imagine that the 9.10$-8.90$ - today`s calculated combined daily & weekly & yearly support magnet - could be tested again in course of the coming week and/or until end of January!

Starting a GBTC long position there offers an unusual low-risk/high-reward trading opportunity as long as the SL at 7.90$ will be respected.

The daily 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up offers a triple upmagnet resistance target at 12.75$ towards end of February for the likely underway daily & weekly upcycle.

There and then the dark-red dotted (= usually future strong according time and price!) declining "Yearly Resistance 2" unites with the possible uptarget of upper line of 2nd double arc and the 2*1 Gann Angle which could guide the entire uptrend upward until 12.75$/end of February perhaps is getting tested/worked off!

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Be prepared!


Eduard Altmann