Up or down? – Both sides of the medal

Last week, during five successive days prices were rising. Until now, everything boils down to a Gann Angle Retracement at the 1*2, 1*4 or the 1*8 Gann Angle, as planned.




There, since the middle of next week we are going to look for a long term short entry because then during 8 successive days we would have a rising market giving us a classic reversal sign if the former high will not be reached. There at the Gann Angles, we will not seek the aggressive entry but wait for a reversal candle.


There, we will maybe cover our 1042 longs entered on Tuesday with the reversal candle. Later more...


Also, by the weekly candle the lower Weekly Bearish Rising Wedge was tested back. Together with the negative divergences, that gives us a clear short signal for the next week, as well.


But we think the market will go higher the next few days, so we may have seen a false break!




However – and now I get onto the subject of the two sides of the medal – there are also many signs which advise us to resume the rally.


1. According to our trading rules, in case of a strong trend we can assume that the corrections within the trend end at the blue arc, the 1st or 2nd double arc. Accordingly, there is the narrow stop at the possible Gann Angle Retracement High in the Daily GUNNER24 Down.


2. The following 8 Candle Weekly GUNNER24 Up Setup which is valid since March, 2009 gives us two pretty clear positive signals:



In the weekly chart, the thing is to be precise, in our GUNNER24 Up Setup, obviously from the square diagonal we rebounded upwards and even closed above the 2nd double arc again which might have triggered off the booster for another ascent to our main target. See the 11/02/09 Forecasts.


If accordingly, the stock market on Monday or Tuesday already is going to rise in an extraordinary scale and reach 1080 the short entry will have died and with a weekly closing price of more than 1089 we will go long.


Here, the lower 4 hour time frame helps us along:



In this 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up the 2nd double arc is especially significant (see the rule above). If it breaks upwards and 1080 is reached we will have the first warning signal to think "long" again.


Furthermore, there are many signs for the rally to be continued...: The season aspect, the winter is on its way – as to our experience the top of the year comes late if early in the year a significant low was marked – and the monthly GUNNER24 Up Setups in gold, EUR/USD and copper.


4. If for further orientation we cite the monthly gold chart we'll see we have arrived at our first target of the first double arc thus reaching a minimum target where we always have to reckon with contrary price moves. There, at or since 11/11 we will be expecting the next significant top and after a little retracement we will get back to the market less expensively. That again might support our daily short in the stock market.



So we are geared up for another 3 day gold rise. We are likely to reach the upper line of the first double arc (1130) next week.


That's indicated by the situation in the actual 4 Hour GUNNER24 Up Setup:



There, last Friday the 3rd double arc was broken significantly on final quotation basis, and the main target (1127-1130) was activated. At least till next Wednesday, gold should follow at the chart-anchored Gann Angle until the main target. Our SL is rather narrow since in the Monthly GUNNER24 Up we are moving close to an important mark (lower first double arc line) and there, just in theory, a quick rebound downwards might happen. Rather likely, at the upper line of the first double arc, at 1127 a rebound should result, and November should close within the first double arc.


At 1130, we will carry out a partial cover of our monthly longs to take along some profits. After levelling profitably our entire long position in October at 1050, since 10/29/09 at 1047 we have been long again. Our monthly SL is at 1042.


In the 4 hour time frame, we will cover two thirds of the positions at 1107 (4th double arc), because that target corresponds with the 5th double arc (main target) and the actual Daily Gold GUNNER24 Up.


It will be interesting to watch whether the stock market again will follow the gold, since from out my market observation of the last year, after a gold rise a stock market rise followed. Besides, gold has always rung in a little correction a couple of days before the stock market has.


A symptom of a further stock market ascent would be a weekly close of more than 1089. In that case, I think the lost motion finally shall have been overcome and the stock market should work its way up to new tops with target 1212.


In the ES # weekly, for the last ride we let us stop in at 1089 on weekly basis if the horizontal square line is broken on the final price basis.


Let's have the medal keep standing on its edge, then we'll see to which direction it will tip over.



All the best!


Eduard Altmann