Welcome to the last edition of free GUNNER24 Forecasts in 2014, a year affected by some fiscal and political turbulences.


Generally speaking in 2014 gold made an outperformance, again. Despite the heavily cap by the FED, the bashing against gold, the hype at the stock market everywhere, the spreading deflation and in face of a strong downtrend at US$-base, in 2014 the Safe Haven made it again to gain some in mostly every currency, after a disappointing 2013. Sufficiently often there has been a clear outperformance respectively the official inflation rates in 2014, too.


Those facts and the overall performance of the past years are astonishing. The gold-bulls should be admonished by that to keep a consistent and permanent physical stacking. Here, there is the annual change in % oft the most important key currencies from 2005 to 2013 and including the performance of 2014 till past Friday:

 

Source: goldprice.org


Even in view of US$ base there is a notable plus, if we consider the performance of exactly a year till past Friday.


Besides you should just click through goldprice.org. On the right hand side you will see „WORLD GOLD PRICES“ to check further currencies. You might wonder, as well as I did, but maybe you will consider this quotation of Voltaire as a truth:


Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.“


==> During 2014 it became clear to all of us, that the world is going to face deflation for years. There is and there will be no point in printing money.


==> What this actually means for us, as being part of the common folk, investors and traders is: We are going to need to expand our physical gold holdings, as usual. Gold remains to be our insurance against wealth transfer or the „death“ of currencies, which is more and more actively and obviously planned by bankers, state executives, elites and government.


There is a worldwide failure of states and unions including their currencies. Actually every other economic area besides the USA turns to US stocks, US bonds and to the US$ respectively the petrodollar system. In 2015 there will be some bancruptcies of states caused by the enormous state-indebtedness. Probably Greece, perhaps Venezuela and some more emerging countries, which depend on oil or other resources. Woe betide there is a quarter, in which China just reports a growth of 5 or 6% in 2015. This would feed the worldwide deflation spiral.


The fact that gold in 2014 could end with a small plus even measured in US$ is mind-blowing. The FED did her best to push and stabilize their own stock markets, to make commodities cheaper, including gold, in order to strengthen the USA+US$ facing the financial war against China and Russia, especially the possible hot war against Russia.


Nevertheless there will be a +/- in view of the US$ in 2014. Regarding all the hype, all the efforts and strains made by the monetary authorities and despite the rest oft he world enforcedly had to invest in american stocks the S&P500 Index just had a plusperformance of 12% in 2014 (Friday).


Obviously in 2015 the capital of the rest of the world will has to be invested in the USA, because a lot of other currencies are heading towards ZERO due to many different reasons. One thing for sure: Gold is and gold will be a respectabe alternative to the USA and their dollar, while talking about safe and value-preserving investments. Maybe in 2015 even the dollar will be affected, finally it is just a paper, as well and maybe gold can make a turn of its downtrend. This for sure, it would be a great relief for US-gold-bulls.


2012/2013/2014 year end pattern:

 

On the whole, the current month of December is performing quite parallel to December of 2012 and 2013. Correspondingly we can and may conclude the devolution of the remaining trading days of the year.


A first temporarily low is achieved around the 5-7th of December. In 2012 and 2013 – see chart above - the low ocurred on the 7th respectively the 6th. In 2014 it was the 5th. This low is followed by a 3-day (2013+2014) respectively 4-day (2012) upswing leading to the absolutely December high, ocurring around the 9-12th of December. In 2012 it was the 12th, in 2013 the 10th and in 2014 the 9th, when the monthly high was reached. In 2012 (6 days) and in 2013 (7 days) the high peak was followed by a 2nd temporarily low of the month for gold.


In 2012 and 2013 the 2nd temporarily low of the month was reached on 20th respectively the 19th of December. From this 2nd temporarily lows a little „christmas-ralley“ started before gold hackly declined for 2-3 days. The last day of the year (chart above: 12/31/2013) respectively the first day of the new year (chart above: 01/04/2013) a significantly year end low gets marked.


December of 2011 was quite similiar to December 2012+2013 according the important year end low. Back then - 12/29/2011 - the important December-low developed which was followed by a 250$-rally topping in 03/2012.

 

In 2014 the 2nd temporarily December low is made on 17th, according to this, gold – because it probably wants to recreate the pattern of the years of 2012 and 2013 - from now on should either lightly increase until 12/24 or respectively lightly increase until 12/26 without falling below the low of the 17th in order to decline to its absolutely December/early January low. So it might be possible, that the 30th, respectively the last trading day of the year, the absolutely December low could incur. Not until this usual December-pattern occurs there may be starting the next upwards leg in the countertrend.


The likely top of the 24th respectively the 26th could come in again at the lower line of the 2nd double arc resistance. This strong resistance was reached to the T on Thursday for the last time. A strong intraday reversal starting at the upper line of the 2nd was the consequence… The upper line of the 2nd double arc runs at approximately 1205 for christmas respectively the 26th, so at 1205 seems to be a nice short-entry for the following expected sharp 2-3 day decline to the final December/very early January low.


This could come in at the 1172 environment! This is where the important 1172 GUNNER24 Support Magnet on monthly base runs, as the several times affirmed support of the first double arc and furthermore the 1*1 Gann Angle in daily time frame for end of December/early January, do.

 

The 1*1 Gann Angle is an activated downtarget in daily frame, because the 2*1 Angle during the current consolidation on daily closing base has been pierced.


The top of Thursday tested the previously broken 2*1 Angle from below. As this backtest turned out to be clearly negative, gold should be on its way to complete the 1*1 Gann Angle test during this consolidation.


Personally speaking at the 1172 environment, which will be at the finals of the year, would be the best entry into a long position for the expected continuation of the countertrend, which seeks to the 1250-1260 environment.


Once the countertrend is over I believe gold will aim for the 1100-mark in order to complete the 1000-mark as a sequence. The 1000$-mark should be reached most lately until June 2015.


Your GUNNER24 Staff use this convenient time of the year for a longer break at a stretch. So there will be no edition of the free GUNNER24 Forecast the next Sunday. Personally speaking I’m looking forward to silence, relaxation and a break of the hectically everyday life. So during this time I will focus on the time and the activities among family and friends. My staff and me, we wish you a merry christmas and a happy new year 2015. The next edition of the free GUNNER24 Forecasts will appear on 4th of January in 2015.

 

 

As far as I know“, the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method is the globally unique and only technical analysis tool that deals intensely with the comportment of the market at support and resistance marks being able to combine that with price predictions. You’ll learn everything on these really “secret” facts in the Complete GUNNER24 Forecasting and Trading Course. Order now!

Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann

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