Gold –1322 is the be all and end all

These days I was very pleased when a trader wrote me he was looking forward to my every-morning-analysis. “It’s the first I use to take care of in the morning”. Thanks to Moris for the “Great-stuff”-comment!!

In the aftermath following this comment many things were swirling around my head. In the center of my reflections was mainly the question which market/markets I tackle in the early morning, why I do what I use to do and what kind of tools and techniques I employ for the daily market analysis/analyzes.

My mainly motive – at some point I became aware of that – is the fact that I don’t understand the certain market at all or that many aspects of the market seems to me unclear/illogical or bewildering.

Absolutely clear to me is my main motive of my analyzing… why at all I do what I do: I always have to write down for myself where the future milestones of this market are. So to speak I have to define for myself where the most varying milestones in the different markets are to be found, where is the temporal deadline to attain respectively work off what certain thing, what might happen where and up to when.

As it were, I put down the forecast, the plan I’ve got for the market. So to speak I discuss with myself weighing up some different possibilities in the analysis. For that I utilize as many technical tools as possible, but somehow these are never identical. Of course, the basis will always be the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method I developed. It simply helps me to classify the markets better. Many other tools as Fibonacci, Elliott, indicator as well as oscillator tools I consult whenever they help me to make the market comprehensible in a better way.

Hmm, that’s so far the introduction into today’s most sophisticated gold analysis that for my taste is showing too many “uncomfortable” imponderables and most different possibilities and “Ifs”. But I think, in the regular Sunday edition I can afford to be simply just your sparring partner trying to open for you some new perspectives without having to fix concretely which way exactly gold is going in the medium term.

Gann trading comprises two components: The factor time and the factor price. I represent the opinion it’s the time that plays the most important part in trading. If a determined signal comes out at a certain moment it will have an impact to the future price developments. The time, i.e. the respective up-and-down cycles or the respective turning points of these cycles = time will have to be found out and identified in advance. Then we’ll trade the respective changes in trend direction.

Now, the weekly time frame and the seasonality are giving first of all green light for a new rally leg during 7-8 more weeks. In addition, the weekly time frame implies that the low of last week – delivered on 04/01 at 1277.30$ - may be likewise important and determining for the price as the low of 06/28/2013 = first and absolute correction low and the low of 12/31/2013 were = second higher low of the correction in the monthly time frame beginning in September 2011:

Source: www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_gold_midtermelection.html

This year – 2014 is a midterm year in the presidency cycle – gold has been performing nearly equally as it is supposed to be according to the average midterm year.

The average midterm year is giving a first rally leg during 9-10 weeks. In 2014 this first leg lasted 12-13 weeks, depending on the point of view. Then the cycle indicated a 2-3 week correction. In 2014, with the low at 1277.30 the last trading week may have worked off the seasonality guidelines after 3 weeks of correction. Now another rally leg with duration of almost 2 months is likely to be on the way. The big question is of course whether my allegation comes true that the Tuesday low is final and thereby important.

It’s been conspicuous for years – beginning in 2008 – that especially the weekly time frame can be caught very well by the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method, often signaling changes before the monthly time frame does. And, what I found for gold in the weekly time frame is very most interesting:

At the moment, in the weekly time frame there are some tough hints that the last respectively current correction that has only lasted 3 weekly candles is a matter of a back test of an extremely important and powerful Gann Support Magnet. This magnet is situated at the lows of the last two weekly candles. And the back test seems to have proceeded successful being the result now a rebound upwards from this Gann Support Magnet.

At the last two weekly lows meet A) the first double arc of the weekly 5 candle up setup and the important B) 1*2 Angle that both derive from the absolute correction low and the main attraction of the entire current back testing action C) the important all-time high Gann Angle. Its abbreviation in the chart above is ATH Angle.

1. For the first time we can recognize that the ATH Angle plays a central part for gold being tested successfully at the beginning of 2013.

2. But as early as at the second test it breaks, thus triggering a sell signal. It’s extremely important that we understand what this sell signal means and what this ATH Angle thereby means for gold. By the final break of this ATH Angle simultaneously also the long-lasting - for 20 months - first consolidation phase after the 2011 all-time high was dissolved downwards. It took this break and the final sell signal of the ATH Angle to trigger the worst phase of the current correction on monthly base. Thus the ATH Angle became the pivot in gold. See 3.

3. Here the ATH Angle was tested back. There ended the first countertrend rally after the June 2013 lows in August 2013. And the existence of the 5 candle up applied in the weekly chart above is confirmed there, as well. Gold had to turn down from the August 2013 highs because the ATH Angle signaled so, as well as the first double arc resistance that had forecast the 5 candle up = combined resistance = important Resistance Gann Magnet did.

4. Let’s turn now to the next important angle that plays a part for the current correction low. It concerns the 1*2 Angle that derives from the June 2013 low. After a several week test phase, at 4 it was finally broken nevertheless. A buy signal arises. Yeah, even a mighty because double Gann Angle buy signal arises. In one go also the ATH Angle is clearly taken upwards.

5. That even leads to the resistance of the first double arc to be taken four weeks later then. With the final break of this 1st double arc arises another buy signal that is still valid CURRENTLY. Technically gold is supposed to target the 2nd double arc, actually at about 1422, an important monthly resistance!

6. The first rally leg 2014 finished at an important Resistance Gann Angle starting from the high of the year 2012. The fact of the 2012 Resistance Angle being overcome on weekly closing base is another weekly buy signal that newly confirms the 1422 as the target. But a week later gold starts correcting, denying the young 2012 Resistance Angle buy signal.

7. Consecutively gold keeps falling. Both last weekly lows are exactly on the ATH Angle. In addition and simultaneously the first double arc is tested, and at the same time we experience also being tested the 1*2 Angle.

==> In my opinion the correction of the last 3 weeks tests back some extremely important angles and the double arc. That seems to me absolutely sound! When this test comes to an end it should be going on upwards. The midterm year seasonality implies so. To what height is it going? This is the very big question! Please mind the 1322 resistance at the 2012 Resistance Angle sketched in the weekly chart above.

But attention: A weekly close below the ATH Angle is a huge and strong sell signal for gold. Then at least a 1220 or so should be expected next. Such another ATH Angle sell signal is also maybe the harbinger for a 1050 till July/August 2014!!!

Let’s turn now into the daily up setup. It starts at the December 2013 low measuring off the margin from this low to the first important high (01/27/2014). This setup shows how harmonic the course of the gold market currently is and how coherent the daily time frame is harmonizing with the weekly time frame at the moment. It also shows how the daily time frame is harmonizing with itself and how safe its signals are. All we have to do is always interpret them the right way. But that’s the real difficulty after all: 

After the first rally leg had rebounded from the upper line of the 2nd gold targeted the upper line of the first, rebounding from it exactly with the 1277.30 Tuesday low. So a daily magnet is there that harmonizes exactly with a weekly support starting from the ATH 2011 = ATH Angle and with two more weekly magnets = supports starting from the June 2013 low (1*2 Angle and first double arc support). At 1277.30 price and time met on Tuesday. Whenever happens something like that we may, must respectively we should work on the assumption that Gann’s golden rule takes effect: When price meets time, a change is imminent”. Ergo it may go up now. The least gold should do now is follow the ABC correction briefly sketched in the daily chart above – up to the lower line of the 2nd. And that’s where it is waiting again, the 1322. It has been accompanying us for months. It’s the pivot gold has been orienting by since, oh, let’s look it up…

…Since 04/16/2013 it has. On this day almost one year ago one of the most dominating and important pivots = Gann Magnet was implanted and generated that gold ever had had. This day an important correction low at 1321.50 was generated.

What it would mean for humanity in the end, if this magnet were finally taken upwards, I don’t know. Will the next phase of the bull begin then, the blow-off phase in gold? Will a possible final overcoming of the 1322 mark confirm the collapse of a system, of a power or the beginning of a new global crisis, the crash of the US$ or even an important top at the US stocks? Is it possible that April 16, 2014 – just being a few days ahead – on the other hand generates a new important gold high then starting the final phase of the correction that leads gold into its “usual” summer correction coming to an end in July/August 2014 at 1050. I don’t know. All I know is that the 1322 is extremely important:

Even the strong February 2014 was not able to overcome the 1322 on monthly closing base. February 2014 closed at 1321.60… What the one and only monthly candle does on intra-month basis is not of interest for the signaling. That’s why for signaling as far as the final overcoming of the 1322 is concerned, March 2014 is completely, really absolutely uninteresting. March would have gone up to 1422 or 1500 as well. The 1322 has to be overcome finally. All gold needs, is a monthly close above the 1322. And it’s got to be pretty noticeable!

Not before that, the wiggling around we saw the last months should come to an end. Regarding the performance since the June 2013 lows we realize, after the first 3 month up impulse, that gold is mainly detained – besides testing extensively the 1322 – with working off the most important Gann Angles. The most important recognition seems to be that the 1*2 Angle is supposed to give strong support now. Anyhow December 2013 did not achieve to close significantly below that.

After all in January 2014 the last rally leg began leading to a Gann Angle buy signal since February 2014 closed clearly above the 2*1 Angle. But the March 2014 candle denied this fresh buy signal again. All in all, under the GUNNER24 magnifying glass the monthly time frame is looking pretty neutral. The 1322 is the key I think… if April 2014 succeeds in closing above – as mentioned, the midterm seasonality and the GUNNER24 Forecast in the weekly time frame are implying so – and if also the Slow Stochastic in the monthly time frame in unison with the RSI and the MACD stand on strong buy…

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