GUNNER24 Trade of the Day 09/09/2015

                                                                                                                     

Buy S&P 500 Index today at 1956 / The 1:3 Trade: Sell S&P 500 Index at 2005

 

Dear GUNNER24 Traders,

 

Buy S&P 500 Index today at 1956

 

Yesterday index closed above ruling 2*1 Resistance Angle at 1969.41 in daily time frame. Clear buy signal on daily base! Futures are on fire overnight and S&P 500 trades at 1988 while I write these lines. S&P 500 should work off the strong 2005 up magnet in monthly time frame = strongest monthly resistance for September at day # 13 of bounce. With today, bounce is at day # 12, so 2005 are expected to be reached on Friday. For today we try to buy a backtest of the 2*1 Angle = now 2*1 Support Angle for the 2005 monthly uptarget, simultaneously we place 1:3 trade order to sell index at 2005 for the expected test of current correction lows in course of next 2-3 weeks:

 


 

Yesterdays breakout above 2*1 Angle - now Support Angle - is confirmed by momentum oscillators we use. Slow Stochastics and RSI have broken midterm resistances and MACD delivered a buy crossover. Today is day # 12 of bounce, today and day # 13 of bounce will reach current bounce highs for a serious test. Bounce highs made at day # 5 are standing at 1993.48.

 

Suppose current 1993.48-bounce highs will be pierced deeply soon cause upwards momentum looks strong and within short covering swings older resistances are often blown away easily. Think bounce will reach at least backtest "round" 2000 at day # 13 and likely is able to reach combined monthly and daily resistance at 2005.

 

Today we try to buy a backtest of yesterdays upwards broken 2*1 Angle:

 


 

2*1 Support Angle is at 1960 for today, we place a Buy-Limit order at 1956 for a small dent of this new important daily support. If 2*1 Angle will be backtested today market should continue its rally into 2005 resistance that is at lower line of 2nd resistance for day # 13 of bounce. Backtest of 2*1 Support Angle would be nothing unusual and an intraday downswing for the 2*1 backtest might start from current bounce high area at 1993!

 

After working off 2005-monthly main resistance index should plunge for 10-13 days for the awaited backtest of current correction lows. I expect at least another test of 4th double arc support for next 10-13 day downleg.

 

When time forecast is correct index should test 4th double arc together with 2*1 Angle = 1890 environment within 25-30th of September. 

 

If 4th double arc fails to hold within next down swing S&P 500 is allowed to reach 1825 at 5th double arc support environment. A possible test of 5th double arc in trend direction should finally complete correction, a new multi-month upwards leg could start from 5th double arc support.

 

==> We buy today a possible 2*1 Angle backtest at 1956 today for the 2005 monthly uptarget. At 2005 we cover possible long position and place simultaneously a 1:3 sell short limit.

 

==> SL for todays long attempt is placed at 1952.10.

 

Please use ETF, options, CFDs or warrants reproducing this trade.

 

GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 09/09/2015:

 

Market: S&P 500 Index

 

Orders: Buy-Limit at 1956. Stop-Loss (SL) at 1952.10. Place Sell-Limit = uptarget at 2005.00. Delete the Stop-Loss order after the Sell-Limit order was triggered. Buy-Limit order is valid today, 09/09/2015. Sell-Limit order and Stop-Loss order valid till 09/14/2015.

 

The 1:3 Trade: Sell S&P 500 Index at 2005

 

Our 1:3 trades are A) adjusted to a longer term, having a spacious stop-loss for the development not to be endangered and B) have to show a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.

 

Big Picture – Monthly GUNNER24 Up:

 


 

May 2015 alltime-high (ATH) was made at major resistance of upper line of 3rd double arc in 13 Candle up. At May 2015 ATH current correction leg has started, August shows a spike low at correction month # 4.

 

August candle delivered a first strong sell signal in monthly time frame since a few years cause it shows a reversal body at monthly double arc resistance. August was able to defend anchored Support Angle on closing base. Current September (month # 5) opened below Support Angle and shows for now also a relative long lower wick and for now a higher low compared to August.

 

Yesterdays high stopped exactly at Support Angle, with todays strong upwards action this Support Angle is now jerked, at least for shortterm, and next higher monthly magnet comes into play.

 

!! ==> Cause Support Angle is broken upwards on intermediate base lower line of 3rd double arc is activated next uptarget for market!!

 

Lower line of 3rd double arc is at 2005 for September 2015. Lower line of 3rd is strongest identifiable resistance for market in monthly time frame, a short attempt there is absolutely justified.

 

After touch with lower line of 3rd main resistance at 2005 – expected next few days, usually Friday, at latest Tuesday – S&P 500 index should head south for the serious test of current correction lows. September is correction month No. 5, so its predestinated for a final correction low according Fib count. This September low might be higher as August low, might be at same level, normally would be that September delivers the lowest low of correction.

 

A final September correction low usually should arrive between 1860 and 1738, thats monster horizontal support area. At 1860 September would deliver a small lower correction low. Another possible September low area is the 1825-1830 support, this downtarget is derived from daily 5 Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup, analyzed above. A 1825 would mean a backtest of very important October 2014 low, this stands at 1820.66!

 

As usual we are conservative with expectations, accordingly the 1860-GUNNER24 Horizontal Support becomes downtarget for this 1:3 trade sell short setup!

 

SL for the 1:3 short trade is placed at 2052 according 1:3 trade money management rules.

 

Risk = 47. Potential reward = 145. Risk-reward ratio 47/145 or 1:3.09

 

Please use ETF, options, CFDs or warrants reproducing this trade. Sell when S&P 500 Index trades at 2005 till Tuesday.

 

GUNNER24 Trade of the Day order for 09/09/2015:

Market: S&P 500 Index

 

Orders: Sell-Limit at 2005. Stop-Loss (SL) at 2052. Sell-Limit order valid till 09/15/2015. Shortterm downtarget at 1860.

 

Eduard

 

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Open Orders

 

Market: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

 

Orders: Sell-Limit at 117.40. Stop-Loss (SL) at 122.50. Shortterm downtarget at 100.00. Sell-Limit order valid till 09/11/2015.

 

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Current Position

 

Short Google Inc. (GOOG) at 667.00$ since 19. August 2015. Stop-Loss (SL) at 673.67$. Shortterm downtarget is 625.00$.

 

1:3 Trades:

 

Short Akamai Technologies (AKAM) at 74.15$ since 08. September 2015. Stop-Loss (SL) at 77.15$. Shortterm downtarget till October 2015 is 64.70$.

 

Long Richmont Mines (RIC) at 2.80$ since 16. December 2014. Stop-Loss (SL) at 1.94$. First target is 3.90$. Main Target = uptarget till spring 2016 is 5.40$.

 

Long Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) at 43.09$ since 09. July 2014. Stop-Loss (SL) is a monthly close below 35$. Shortterm Buy-Target is 46$. Midterm Buy-Target is 52.50$ till end of 2014. Longterm Buy-Target is 60.50$ till May 2016.

 

Long GLOBAL X Silver MINERS ETF (SIL) at 13.79$ since 18. March 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Shortterm target is 15.48$. Main targets 17.42$ and 20.00$.

 

Short S&P 500 Index at 1820 since 11. February 2014. No Stop-Loss (SL). Midterm Sell-Target is 1805-1800.

 

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Markets, Money Management and Trade Size

 

I will merely analyze the market. There are so many instruments in the world outside our GUNNNER24 Traders use to trade, and hundreds of popular ones among them, often depending on a trader’s time horizons... I don’t consider me able to adjust the market recommendations to all the popular ETFs, different CFD or futures contracts. All I’ll analyze is pure market action - the index, stock or most current contract and forex!

 

The trade size you should use depends.

 

A) On your account size:

 

I usually follow the rule of thumb which says, never bet more than 1% of your account size for each trade. So I avoid overtrading...

Let’s say you have got a 30.000US$ account granting you a nominal buying power of 300.000US$ up to 500.000USUS$ and even more, depending on your broker and instrument. In that case your trade size shouldn’t be more than 3.000US$-5.000US$ taking into account your buying power.

 

Another - more conservative - method is taking into account the available margin. Usually, 30.000US$ account value equals 30.000US$ available for margin trading. So the trade size is 300US$ taking into account the margin.

 

Within Trade of the Day I ask you not to bet more than this 1% per any trade.

 

The other point to consider for determining the trade size is:

 

B) if your trading style is rather active, supposing you regularly have 30-50 open trades, just as I have - CFD/ETF, here some stocks, there a future contract. So I often trade risky somehow, but I split the money/bets. Even in such a nice trend as the stocks are showing currently, I never ever trade too risky. I never load the boat with 70% let 90% of my account size. 50% is the maximum.

 

I trade for my living and for my kids and wife as well. A regular income is important. The big-bang bet isn’t! The market would win such a big-bang bet for sure!! 

 

When I have a lot of open trades, maybe up to this 50% of my account size/available margin I avoid trading more. So if you are an active trader having a lot of trades running at rev limiter (50% account size) please avoid trading even though we/I give you some fresh recommendations, because this would rise YOUR risk!... During the test phase that happened frequently. We had 3-5 open trades sometimes and that’s why it’s elementary important that we/you have to use tight SL. Order management is absolutely crucial for Trade of the Day.

 

You’ll have to place really each and every order accordingly, you know. Forgetting only one time the SL would make this trade getting worse and worse…

 

 

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Based on the George Douglas Taylor Trading Technique that I’ve been studied and originally traded for years transferring it onto the modern markets by constant observation a five day pattern of the single days of the week has resulted.


The crux is not so much that the entire week has to work perfectly. Perhaps it does just at a 50% because the day patterns may shift by one or two days. In the strong upwards trends sometimes you see 4 buy days and only 1 sell day. It’s important to recognize that the day proceeds ideally-typically and to trade accordingly.


My personal trading style has always been the contrary to that of the crowds because the crowds always loose. Especially in gold and silver trading I like to buy the corrections Monday to Wednesday and on Friday if the day patterns correspond with some important GUNNER24 Signals.


I use to go short intraday just on Thursday when the week high is sold off AND provided that the corresponding GUNNER24 Setups signal so covering the shorts when the cycle is resumed.


The ideal five day pattern in an upwards trend – precious metals and US stock market – Do use those patterns for your intraday and swing activities!

 

 

Monday: Buy day. Strong up-day. Low established first. It often ends at the day high. Unthinkingly you may buy all the intraday corrections because the week high comes later in the course of the week.


Tuesday: Buy day. Weaker up-day. A higher high is produced. As early as now the crowds ponder whether the prices mightn’t run too high partially going short already. For me it’s the day when I can cover my Friday and Monday longs. In intraday I try to go long in case of corrections until the Comex opening.


Wednesday: Sell day. Actually the day for covering the longs and for the first short entry. It’s got some different forms. It closes at the same level as it had opened. Frequently at first the high is established because more and more traders short the market. Here the longs fight against the shorts. You recognize that if many teeth, many nicks, many spike candles are to be seen in the chart. On Wednesday I use to do nothing. Only at a 20 to 30% the shorter hearts are pleased because during the whole day there’s only sell-off.


Thursday: The classical sell short day. Because the Wednesdays often close as they had opened the market participants have to cover their shorts because in the beginning the market runs quickly upwards…! And frequently they turn their positions into the high direction being caught on the wrong trail again. Then the market often lays down a beautiful sell-off. In the evening mostly a strong rally follows. That’s where we cover the shorts.


Friday: Classical buy day in the upwards trend. It’s nothing for weak hands. Here’s where you buy the positions near the Thursday lows which you cover again next Tuesday/Wednesday. If you discover that the prices have steadied or even are rising a little bit by closing the five day cycle should continue in the following week.

 

In the charts we work with the following symbols:

 

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